# AlgorithmicFIRE

> Quantitative financial engineering, rule-based portfolio allocation models, safe withdrawal rate (SWR) longevity analytics, and sequence-of-returns risk mitigation for Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE).

AlgorithmicFIRE bridges the gap between institutional-grade quantitative finance and early retirement planning. All models, historical datasets (1927–present), and calculators are open and un-gated.

## Interactive Calculators & Tools

- [Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) Calculator](https://algorithmicfire.com/calculators#swr): Historical portfolio survival engine sweeping 90+ years of monthly market cohorts under standard solvency or behavioral capital floor constraints.
- [Time to FI Calculator](https://algorithmicfire.com/calculators#time_to_fi): Savings rate, compounding projections, and timeline to financial independence.
- [Roth Conversion Optimizer](https://algorithmicfire.com/calculators#roth_conversion): Tax bracket arbitrage and dynamic Roth conversion ladder optimization.
- [Daily Trading Signals Dashboard](https://algorithmicfire.com/dashboard): Real-time market state, ER_MMA trend signals, and active cash-alternative asset rotations for 100+ tickers.

## Primary Quantitative Research

- [The FIRE Movement Curriculum: Learn the Math of Early Retirement](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/the-fire-investors-learning-track-from-beginner-to-fire): A step-by-step curriculum for early retirement. Master Safe Withdrawal Rates, control sequence of returns risk, and optimize taxes to fast-track your FIRE goals.
- [4% Rule Bond Sensitivity: Duration, Credit Quality & Allocation | AlgorithmicFIRE](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/why-your-bond-choice-can-break-the-4-percent-rule): A data-driven analysis of how deviating from Bengen's original 5-year Treasury bond prescription affects safe withdrawal rate (SWR) survival. Covers bond duration, credit quality, allocation sweeps, and dynamic trend-following under a behavioral capital floor.
- [Can You Safely Retire on a 100% Stock Portfolio? | AlgorithmicFIRE](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/can-you-safely-retire-on-a-100-percent-stock-portfolio): A data-driven replication of Bengen's 4% rule using 5-Year U.S. Treasuries showing that systematic trend-following matches bonds for SWR safety, generates crash alpha, and is not simply a higher-risk strategy.
- [Tactical Leverage: S&P 500 Leveraged ETF Strategy](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/tactical-leverage-with-the-macro-stress-index): Learn how to use a macro stress filter (AF-MSI™) to safely hold leveraged ETFs (SSO/UPRO) in a Three-Fund portfolio and avoid leverage decay.
- [Will Mega IPOs Crash the Market? Quantifying Forced Index Fund Selling](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/could-the-upcoming-mega-ipos-cause-substantive-price-drops-across-the-public-markets): Analyze the mathematical impact of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPOs. We calculate the ~$97B in forced index fund selling and market-cap dynamics using the Inelastic Markets Hypothesis.
- [Visualizing Trend-Following Efficiency: Sharpe Ratio & Risk-Adjusted Returns](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/the-rise-above-visualizing-efficiency): Explore the efficiency frontier of trend-following strategies. Learn why the Sharpe ratio and risk-adjusted efficiency matter more than nominal returns for capital preservation.
- [Roth vs Traditional IRA: Full Lifecycle Tax & Withdrawal Analysis](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/roth-vs-traditional-ira-the-full-lifecycle-view): Settle the Roth vs Traditional IRA debate. Read our full lifecycle tax analysis to see how tax bracket arbitrage, early withdrawals, and RMDs impact your lifetime taxes.
- [ACA Subsidies in Early Retirement: How to Optimize MAGI & Lower Health Costs](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/considering-retiring-early-but-worried-about-healthcare-aca-costs): Maximize your ACA Premium Tax Credits in early retirement. Learn how to strategically use Roth and Traditional IRA withdrawals to control MAGI and lower health insurance costs.
- [Protecting Your Portfolio with Put Options: A Retirement Hedge Strategy](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/buying-insurance-with-put-options): Learn how FIRE investors use put options to hedge against market crashes. Includes a worked example of insuring your S&P 500 holdings and a break-even calculator.
- [The Roth vs Traditional IRA Trap: Marginal vs Effective Tax Rates](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/simplified-roth-versus-traditional-ira-conversations-may-be-costly): Why standard Roth vs Traditional advice is often wrong. Discover why comparing current and future marginal tax brackets is flawed, and how to use effective tax rates to plan.
- [The True Cost of Financial Advisors: Is a 1% AUM Fee Worth It?](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/can-you-afford-an-investment-advisor): Learn how a seemingly small 1% financial advisor fee can cost you hundreds of thousands of dollars in retirement. See the compounding math and compare index fund alternatives.
- [Retirement Planning: Forward vs Backward Planning Strategies Explained](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/hope-is-not-a-strategy-retirement-takes-planning): Stop guessing. Learn the difference between Forward and Backward retirement planning and build an actionable, number-based roadmap to your financial independence goal.
- [Capital Gains Tax Impact on Trend Following: Is Downside Protection Worth the Tax Drag?](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/capital-gains-tax-impacts-on-trend-following-strategies): Quantifying the hidden capital gains tax drag on active trend following strategies. Compare tax-drag vs downside protection benefits in taxable accounts.
- [Protect Your Portfolio from Market Crashes: Downside Protection vs Buy-and-Hold](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/defending-your-savings-against-significant-downturns): Discover the risks of a buy-and-hold strategy in retirement. Learn how trend following and downside protection rules can shield your retirement nest egg from severe market drawdowns.
- [The Nikkei Nightmare: Why the 4% Rule Fails Outside the US (Japan Scenario)](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/us-based-investors-think-the-worst-case-scenario-is-the-great-depression-or-gfc-other-countries-disagree): Why 100 years of US stock market data creates a dangerous bias. Understand how Japan's 30-year Nikkei stagnation redefines safe withdrawal rate risk for global investors.
- [Why the 4% Rule is Dead: Best Alternative Retirement Withdrawal Strategies](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/the-4-rule-is-dead-heres-whats-replaced-it): Is the 4% rule safe? Explore why the traditional 4% safe withdrawal rule is dead and compare modern dynamic and variable withdrawal alternatives for early retirement.
- [Variable Safe Withdrawal Rates: Ditch the 4% Rule for More Income](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/variable-withdrawal-rates-enable-increased-retirement-income): Increase your retirement spending safely. See how dynamic variable safe withdrawal rates (VSWR) adapt to market conditions and outperform the rigid 4% rule.
- [Does Luck Dictate Your Retirement? S&P 500 Returns & Market Timing](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/how-much-retirement-savings-can-be-accumulated-with-30-years-of-saving-1000month): Does your retirement date depend entirely on luck? We analyze historical S&P 500 sequences to show how market timing dramatically affects your final retirement savings balance.
- [The Cost of Delaying Retirement Savings: Time Value of Money Explained](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/its-ok-to-put-off-retirement-savings-until-youre-older-its-easier-then): Think you can catch up on retirement savings later? See the harsh compounding math of the Time Value of Money and why waiting even 5 years dramatically spikes your required savings.
- [Will You Die Broke Using a Safe Withdrawal Rate? The 4% Rule Myth](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/does-using-a-safe-withdrawal-rate-mean-i-likely-die-with-no-money): Uncover the great retirement paradox. Learn why standard safe withdrawal rates (like the 4% rule) usually result in leaving a massive portfolio balance behind rather than dying broke.
- [Is Your Index Fund Actually Diversified? S&P 500 Concentration Risk](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/your-index-investments-likely-arent-as-diversified-as-you-think): Are you exposed to hidden portfolio risks? See how market-cap weighting creates high concentration risk in the S&P 500, and learn how to achieve true diversification.
- [Safe Withdrawal Rates (SWR) for Short Retirements: 10 to 25-Year Horizons](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/safe-withdrawal-rate-for-shorter-retirements): Retiring with a shorter time horizon? Analyze the historical data showing how Safe Withdrawal Rates (SWR) can safely increase for 10, 15, 20, and 25-year retirements.
- [When the 4% Rule Fails: Safe Withdrawal Rate Failure Rates by Retirement Length](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/safe-withdrawal-rate-failure): Historical SWR failure rates for 30, 40, and 50-year retirements. See exactly how often the 4% rule runs out of money — and what withdrawal rate has a 95%+ success rate.
- [Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) Explained: Meaning, 4% Rule & FIRE Calculator](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/understanding-safe-withdrawal-rate): What is SWR in finance? The Safe Withdrawal Rate tells you how much to withdraw annually without running out of money. Run our interactive SWR calculator to test your retirement plan.
- [Sequence of Returns Risk (SRR) Explained: Protect Your Retirement Portfolio](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/understanding-sequence-of-returns-risk): What is sequence of returns risk? Discover why the order of your investment returns matters more than average returns in early retirement, and learn rules to shield your nest egg.
- [Arithmetic Average Return vs CAGR: How to Calculate Investment Growth](https://algorithmicfire.com/post/average-return-its-not-what-you-think): Don't let average returns mislead you. Learn the difference between arithmetic average returns and CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) with real formulas and examples.

## Financial Datasets & Modeling Methodology

- **Historical Coverage**: Continuous monthly and daily resolution data from 1927 to present.
- **Asset Universe**: S&P 500 (`^GSPC`), U.S. Treasuries (3M T-Bill `TB3MS`, 2Y, 5Y `GS5`, 20Y), Moody's Corporate Bonds (`AAA`, `BAA`), and Cash Alternatives (`SHV`, `FLOT`, `BIL`).
- **Trend-Following Engine (ER_MMA)**: Multi-Sleeve Moving Average model evaluating excess returns over cash to scale exposure (0%, 33%, 67%, 100%) with 0.05% slippage and next-day open execution.
- **Ruin Definition (Behavioral Capital Floor)**: Evaluates portfolio failure when real purchasing power drops below 60% of initial principal (decaying linearly to 5% over the horizon), capturing human behavioral capitulation long before mathematical insolvency ($0 balance).

## Full Index

- [Full Content & Model Index](https://algorithmicfire.com/llms-full.txt): Complete markdown text index of all research posts, calculator specifications, and quantitative documentation.