Portfolio Accumulation Simulator
Launch Live CalculatorThe Purpose (Why?)
To understand the range of possible future portfolio outcomes ("cone of uncertainty") during your wealth accumulation phase due to market volatility and the specific order of investment returns. (Note: Simulations use inflation-adjusted "Real Dollars")
How it Works
Enter your Initial Balance, Annual Savings, Savings Growth Rate, expected Return/Volatility parameters, and simulation duration. The calculator simulates 500 potential market trajectories to project your terminal wealth distribution.
Foundational Research
Read the core research articles to understand the accumulation phase of the FIRE journey:
ALGORITHMIC_NOTE: REAL_DOLLARS
Simulations use "Real Dollars" (inflation-adjusted). This means a 0% return maintains purchasing power, while positive returns approximate growth above inflation.
Input Specifications
| PARAMETER | DETAILS |
|---|---|
| Current Portfolio Value ($) | Starting portfolio value. EXAMPLE: $0 |
| Annual Savings ($) | Base annual contribution amount. EXAMPLE: $12,000 |
| Savings Growth (%) | Annual percentage increase in savings contributions. EXAMPLE: 3.0% |
| Real Return (%) | Average annual return (inflation-adjusted). EXAMPLE: 7.0% |
| Standard Deviation (%) | Annual standard deviation (volatility). EXAMPLE: 17.0% |
| Management Fee (%) | Annual percentage fee or expense ratio deducted from the portfolio. EXAMPLE: 0.0% |
| Duration (Years) | Length of the simulation in years. EXAMPLE: 30 Years |
Benchmark Values
- 50/50 Portfolio (Stocks/Bonds)R: 5.8% | σ: 6.1%
- 100% Stocks (S&P 500)R: 7.0% | σ: 17.0%
Example Visualizations
Example Output
View a high-fidelity, interactive sample report generated by this simulation engine.
View Sample Simulation Result