The AlgorithmicFIRE Curriculum Review
Our data-driven posts provide comprehensive resources to the math, the risks, and the strategies of Financial Independence/Retire Early (FIRE). In our Curriculum Review, we provide a summary of key posts to quick-start your journey. (Not all topics about which we have written are covered in this review.)
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Could the Upcoming Mega IPOs Cause Substantive Price Drops Across the Public Markets?
Index funds will soon have to sell substantial holdings in order to raise the cash required to purchase shares in the upcoming IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. This could cause a substantive price drop across the public markets. In this post we investigate the relative sizes of the various funds and the required cashflows to meet the demand.
The Rise Above: Visualizing the Efficiency of Trend-Following
Is your portfolio achieving genuine alpha, or simply increasing volatility for marginal returns? We analyze the Selection Matrix and why vertical scaling (Efficiency) carries more weight than linear growth (CAGR).
Roth vs. Traditional IRA: A Full Lifecycle Analysis
The single most common Roth vs. Traditional question is "which is better?" We modeled the entire wealth lifecycle—from your first dollar saved to your last dollar spent—across thousands of scenarios to find out.
Considering retiring early, but worried about healthcare (ACA) costs?
With some financial engineering, you can reduce (and possibly eliminate) the cost of ACA coverage.
Buying Insurance for Your Portfolio: Put Options vs. Trend Following
Trend following isn't the only way to protect against downturns. We compare trend following to the "guaranteed" protection of put options, and calculate the true cost of that certainty using.
Simplified Roth Versus Traditional IRA Conversations May Be Costly
The discussion is frequently reduced to comparing your current tax bracket to your expected tax bracket in retirement. While simple, this comparison is incomplete.
Can You Afford an Investment Advisor?
The question isn't whether you can afford an advisor, but whether the long term costs of an advisor are worth the money; which will be measured in hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Hope Is Not a Strategy; Retirement Takes Planning
You must have a savings plan, and a withdrawal plan; either can come first. We will show you how to make both plans so you have a clear path to retirement.
Capital Gains Tax Impacts on Trend Following Strategies
Retirement accounts are generally tax deferred, but if you have taxable accounts you should be aware of the tax implications of increased trading frequency.
Defending Your Savings Against Significant Downturns
What happens if the market doesn’t just "dip," but stays down for a decade or more? We explore strategies to safeguard your savings from prolonged stagnation.
U.S.-Based Investors Think the Worst-Case Scenario is the Great Depression or GFC. Other Countries Disagree.
When investment planning for retirement, it is important to consider all possible outcomes. We take a look at Japan in the 1990s to redefine "worst case".
The 4% Rule Is Dead, Here's What's Replaced It
The 4% rule, which we wrote about in our post regarding Safe Withdrawal Rate, was established back in 1994. Since then, many alternatives have been suggested. We review the major alternatives.
Variable Withdrawal Rates Enable Increased Retirement Income
But why do they work? Why not just start with a higher withdrawal rate?
How Much Retirement Savings Can Be Accumulated with 30 Years of Saving $1000/month?
Historical analysis shows luck plays a huge role
It's OK to Put Off Retirement Savings Until You're Older - It's Easier Then...
Except it's not. It is actually harder, unless you get lucky.
Does Using a Safe Withdrawal Rate Mean I Likely Die With No Money?
No, in fact, you are likely to leave behind substantial assets. Plan for it.
Your Index Investments Likely aren't as Diversified as You Think
Large cap indices are dominated by a few large stocks. What to know and how to get more diversified.
Safe Withdrawal Rate For Shorter Retirements
Not everyone needs a 30 year retirement. How does Safe Withdrawal Rate change for shorter retirements?
Safe Withdrawal Rate Failure & Success Rate Dashboards
What happens if your Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is too high? A look at history and some tips for recovery.
What is SWR in Finance? Safe Withdrawal Rate Meaning & Guide
Safe Withdrawal rate (SWR) is the key to answering “Am I (financially) ready to retire?”
Understanding Sequence of Returns Risk
A critical risk factor that can make or break your retirement portfolio, regardless of average returns
Average Return - It’s Not What You Think
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is the proper way to express investment returns over a period, not (arithmetic) average