I recently had a conversation with a friend who explained she had used an online retirement calculator, and it said she needed $2M to retire. Her reaction:
“How am I going to save $2M?”
The number is not important; yours may be higher or lower. But the sentiment is common. My statement back to her, a bit flippant but not wrong, was “you don’t save $2M, you save maybe $500K, wait for the stock market to rip like it did from 2010-2024, and now you have $2M”.
Retirement is a Time Value of Money Problem
The Time Value of Money (TVM) is the core financial concept that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow, primarily because money available now can be invested to earn returns, and grow through compound interest. TVM uses formulas to calculate Present Value (PV) and Future Value (FV) to help individuals and businesses make sound financial decisions.
Future Value Defined
Future Value = (Present Value) * (1 + annual return)^(number of years)
Example: you expect 7% annual real return for 40 years. FV = $1 * (1 + 0.07)^40 = $14.97
Which means each dollar you spend at age 25 would have been worth $14.97 at age 65, in today's (or constant spending value) dollars. (Note that 7% is the long term average real return on the S&P500.)
(Real Return is nominal return minus inflation; dollars of constant value. We discussed real vs nominal returns in our post on Safe Withdrawal Rate; see that for more information.)
Saving Gets Easier as you Make More Money, Right?
You will likely be making more money in the future, so saving IS easier in that sense. But the later you wait, the more you have to save, and the question is whether or not you can save enough more in the time left.
How Much More Are You Likely to Make?
For most people, your real compensation will increase about a factor of 3 from the start of your career (early 20’s) to mid career (around 50). This is what I observed during my career, and is backed up by this ADP report; and that largely holds true across the income scale.
Beyond around age 50, real compensation actually starts to drop for most people. This can be for a number of reasons: people step away from higher pressure roles for quality of life, at that age you are likely working in an aging industry where compensation is lower, etc.
There are some who will break beyond this; most won’t.
Can You Save Enough Later In Life?
Now we know how TVM works, and that we will make around 3x our starting compensation at 50. How does that play out for getting to a given retirement savings versus the number of years of saving?
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All
right, let's dive into a big one. We're
going to talk about an idea that feels
so right, so logical, but can be so, so
wrong. It's that thought that, you know,
I'll just wait to save for retirement.
I'll do it when I'm older and making
more money. Today, we're going to see if
the math actually backs that up. We've
all been there, right? You punch your
numbers into one of those online
retirement calculators and it spits out
this huge, terrifying number and you
just think, $2 million? How on earth am
I supposed to do that? It's it's
completely overwhelming and it makes
kicking that can down the road feel
really, really good. And that feeling,
that's the heart of the I'll save later
myth. The whole idea is simple. You
think, "Hey, my career is going to take
off. My salary will go up." and saving a
big chunk of cash will be way easier
then than it is for me right now. I
mean, it makes sense on the surface,
doesn't it? Of course, it's easier to
save when you have more money coming in.
But today, we're going to put that logic
to the test. We're going to ask the big
question. Is it really true? Does the
math actually work out? To find that
answer, we first have to understand
money's secret power. It's this
incredible force that's always working
in the background. And frankly, it is
the biggest enemy of the whole I'll save
later strategy. And that secret power,
it's called the time value of money. All
it really means is that a dollar today
is worth way more than a dollar in the
future. Why? Well, because that dollar
you have right now can be put to work.
It can be invested. It can start earning
returns. And then here's the magic part.
Those returns start earning their own
returns. That's compounding. And it's
the engine that grows your wealth. Let's
just see how this works. Let's make it
real. Imagine you invest one single
dollar. That's it. Just a buck today.
Okay. Now, fast forward 20 years.
Assuming a pretty standard 7% real
return. That's your growth after
inflation is taken out. That $1 has
turned into almost $4. Pretty good,
right? But wait, let's go just 10 more
years into the future. Look at this.
It's more than doubled again. It's now
worth over $7.50.
You can start to see how the growth is
picking up speed. And after 40 years,
that one single dollar you started with
is now worth nearly $15. So think about
that. Every dollar you don't save early
on is a potential $15 you're just
leaving on the table. Okay. Okay. But I
can hear you saying, "What about my
future paycheck?" Let's talk about the
part of the myth that feels so right.
The fact that you're going to make more
money later. And you're not wrong about
that. The data is pretty clear. For most
of us, our real compensation, that's
your salary after you account for
inflation, will typically triple from
when we start our careers to when we hit
our peak earning years around age 50.
So, we've got our two contenders in a
race. In one lane, you've got your
income, which is going to triple, and in
the other lane, you've got the ticking
clock of compounding interest. So, who
wins? Let's look at the data. So, this
chart shows how savings can grow over 40
years. You see how it starts out kind of
flat and then just skyrockets up at the
end? That's what we call the J curve of
compounding. And the really wild thing
here is that the most explosive, most
powerful growth happens in just those
last 10 or 15 years. Now, this next
chart helps us zoom in on that path to
our $2.5 million goal. The arrows show
when different savings plans hit that
target. And look closely. See how the
gaps between the arrows get smaller as
you move from right to left? That's a
huge clue. It's telling us that to reach
your goal just a little bit sooner, you
have to save a lot more money each
month. You know what? Let's just break
this down into a simple table. So, to
hit that goal, you could save a,000
bucks a month for 40 years. But if you
wait 10 years, you got to double it to
$2,000 a month. Okay, fine. But if you
wait 20 years, you don't just double it
again. You have to jump all the way to
$5,000 a month. The amount you need to
save is accelerating way faster than
time is passing. So, let's bring it all
together. Let's deliver the final
verdict on the save later myth by just
doing some really simple math. So,
here's that race we were talking about
side by side. If you start early with
your 1x income, you need to save a,000
bucks a month. If you wait until
mid-career, yes, your income is three
times higher. But to hit the same goal
in half the time, your required savings
have gone up by five times. And this
chart shows you exactly why. If you
start early, saving that $1,000 a month
for 40 years, you only have to put in
about $480,000 of your own money. The
other 81%, that's over $2 million.
That's basically free money generated by
the market. Time does almost all of the
heavy lifting for you. Now, look at the
person who waited. To get to that same
$2.5 million, they have to personally
shovel in $1.2 million. They're doing
almost half of the work all by
themselves because they gave up all
those precious early years of
compounding. The market just doesn't
have enough time to help them out. And
there it is. That's the knockout punch
to the I'll save later myth. Yes, your
income will probably triple, but to
catch up, the amount you'll need to save
will grow by five times. Your salary
just can't win a race against the power
of lost time. The math is just it's
clear. Waiting for a bigger paycheck to
start saving is a losing game. It might
feel easier today, but you are making
your future so much harder,
exponentially harder. So the only real
question left is how are you going to
pay your future self?