Portfolio Decumulation Simulator (Fixed SWR)
Launch Live CalculatorThe Purpose (Why?)
To understand how the sequence of investment returns and early market losses (sequence risk) can deplete your retirement portfolio faster than expected under a rigid, fixed SWR (adjusted only for inflation). (Note: Simulations use inflation-adjusted "Real Dollars")
How it Works
Enter your Current Portfolio Value, Target SWR (%), expected Return/Volatility parameters, and retirement duration. The calculator simulates 500 potential market trajectories to project portfolio survival.
Note: This simulator models a rigid, fixed SWR (adjusted only for inflation). If you want to simulate dynamic spending guardrails that reduce withdrawals in market downturns, use the Portfolio Decumulation Simulator (Variable SWR).
Foundational Research
Read the core research articles to understand sequence of returns risk (SORR):
ALGORITHMIC_NOTE: REAL_DOLLARS
Simulations use "Real Dollars" (inflation-adjusted). This means a 0% return maintains purchasing power, while positive returns approximate growth above inflation.
Input Specifications
| PARAMETER | DETAILS |
|---|---|
| Current Portfolio Value ($) | Starting portfolio value. EXAMPLE: $1,000,000 |
| Target SWR (%) | Percentage of initial portfolio withdrawn annually. EXAMPLE: 5.0% |
| Real Return (%) | Average annual return (inflation-adjusted). EXAMPLE: 5.8% |
| Standard Deviation (%) | Annual standard deviation (volatility). EXAMPLE: 6.1% |
| Management Fee (%) | Annual percentage fee or expense ratio deducted from the portfolio. EXAMPLE: 0.0% |
| Duration (Years) | Length of the simulation in years. EXAMPLE: 30 Years |
Benchmark Values
- 50/50 Portfolio (Stocks/Bonds)R: 5.8% | σ: 6.1%
- 100% Stocks (S&P 500)R: 7.0% | σ: 17.0%
Example Visualizations
Example Output
View a high-fidelity, interactive sample report generated by this simulation engine.
View Sample Simulation Result