Research Guides

In retirement decumulation, average returns are secondary to tail risk. Here is the math and empirical historical evidence showing how cutting peak drawdowns preserves your nest egg and prevents capital depletion.

Bengen specified 5-year U.S. Treasuries for a reason. This analysis shows what happens historically when investors substitute other bond types — and how much it matters which bonds you hold.

Replicating Bengen's 4% rule with historically accurate intermediate-term Treasuries shows that trend-following allows retirees to hold 100% equity portfolios nearly as safely as a passive 50/50 allocation—but combining the two introduces a costly double drag in growth regimes.

Adding leverage only when macro indicators show a low-stress environment can boost S&P 500 compounding while avoiding crash decay.

Index funds will soon have to sell substantial holdings in order to raise the cash required to purchase shares in the upcoming IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. This could cause a substantive price drop across the public markets. In this post I run the numbers on fund sizes, required cash flows, and market impact.

Most retirement advice treats Roth versus Traditional as a binary choice: pick one and stick with it. I modeled the complete wealth lifecycle—from age-35 starting earnings through age-95 decumulation, with wages tripling over a career—across 120 baseline cohorts, mid-career allocation switches, and full Social Security integration to find which savings path actually delivers the highest spendable cash in retirement.

Is your portfolio capturing genuine efficiency, or taking on uncompensated volatility for marginal returns? I built the Efficiency Matrix to show why vertical scaling (Sharpe Ratio) and drawdown defense protect capital far better than chasing raw linear growth (CAGR).

With some financial engineering, you can reduce (and possibly eliminate) the cost of ACA coverage.

Trend following isn't the only way to protect against downturns. I compare trend following to the contractual protection of put options and calculate the exact cost of that certainty.

The discussion is frequently reduced to comparing your current tax bracket to your expected tax bracket in retirement. While simple, this comparison is incomplete.

The question isn't whether you can afford an advisor, but whether the long term costs of an advisor are worth the money; which will be measured in hundreds of thousands of dollars.

You must have a savings plan, and a withdrawal plan; either can come first. I will show you how to make both plans so you have a clear path to retirement.

Comparing Tax-Deferred (0% Tax / IRA) and Taxable Accounts (35% ST / 20% LT Tax) to quantify downside protection vs. tax drag.

What happens if the market doesn’t just "dip," but stays down for a decade or more? We explore strategies to safeguard your savings from prolonged stagnation.

When investment planning for retirement, it is important to consider all possible outcomes. We take a look at Japan in the 1990s to redefine "worst case".

The 4% rule, which we wrote about in our post regarding Safe Withdrawal Rate, was established back in 1994. Since then, many alternatives have been suggested. We review the major alternatives.

But why do they work? Why not just start with a higher withdrawal rate?

Historical analysis shows luck plays a huge role

Except it's not. It is actually harder, unless you get lucky.

No. Conservative withdrawal math creates structural wealth accumulation in average and favorable market conditions.

Large cap indices are dominated by a few large stocks. What to know and how to get more diversified.

Not everyone needs a 30-year retirement. How does your Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) change for shorter horizons?

What happens if your Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is too high? A look at historical market data and tips for recovery.

Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the key to answering "Am I financially ready to retire?"

A critical risk factor that can make or break your retirement portfolio, regardless of average returns

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is the proper way to express investment returns over a period, not (arithmetic) average