Two-Fund Portfolio (Simple)
A high-performance simplified indexing strategy popularized by John Bogle: 60% Total US Stock Market and 40% Total Bond Market. Designed for efficient exposure to the core drivers of domestic economic growth and fixed income stability.
Disclaimer: The 'Two-Fund Portfolio' is an independent simulation modeled after the historical asset allocation concepts popularized by John Bogle. This website is purely an educational backtesting tool and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by John Bogle, Vanguard, or any financial institution.
MODEL PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-08-17
Executive Summary
The Two-Fund Portfolio (Simple) model portfolio provides research-grade current exposure tracking and performance analysis. It achieved an inception-to-date Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.53% with a Maximum Drawdown of -14.98%. Focusing on the most recent 5-year window, the portfolio maintained a CAGR of 6.24%. The model aggregates 15 completed trades with a Sharpe Ratio of 0.93.
🛡️ Two-Fund Portfolio (Simple) Retirement SWR & Downside Protection
Why Drawdown Dictates SWR → 98% SWR Capacity
4.32% (vs 3.20% B&H)
+$11,200/yr sustainable spend per $1M
Peak Drawdown Defense
-15.0% (vs -35.0% B&H)
+20.0% shallower drawdown
Capital Out of Market Risk
20.3% of Time
Earning Treasury yield during downturns
* 98% SWR Capacity is calculated via a 30-year parametric Monte Carlo decumulation simulation (5,000 paths targeting 98% survival, net of a 2.5% annual inflation hurdle) parameterized by the empirical return and volatility of the analyzed period. In assets or single stocks with severe historical volatility (>35%) or deep drawdowns (>70%), early catastrophic sequence risk reduces sustainable 98% safe spending to 0.00% under Buy & Hold regardless of high long-term average CAGR. Trend-following overlays buffer this sequence risk by truncating tail drawdowns and lowering annualized volatility.
Portfolio Performance Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| Max Drawdown | -5.81% | -5.81% | -13.01% | -21.24% | -13.01% | -22.70% | -14.98% | -34.99% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.56 | 1.56 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 1.11 | 0.81 | 0.93 | 0.66 |
| Sortino Ratio | 2.31 | 2.31 | 0.78 | 0.91 | 1.29 | 0.96 | 1.12 | 0.79 |
| CAGR | 14.15% | 14.15% | 6.24% | 7.49% | 10.41% | 9.77% | 8.53% | 8.27% |
| 98% SWR Capacity | 8.11% | 8.11% | 3.12% | 3.07% | 5.37% | 4.14% | 4.32% | 3.20% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 65.3% | 100.0% | 79.6% | 100.0% | 79.7% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
Active Portfolio Composition
Cumulative Growth Performance
Asset Correlation & Trend Shifts
Analyze how different assets move together and how active strategy trends affect their relationship. Lookback Period:
Portfolio Type / Trend Phase:
Trend Insights
Currently showing the baseline Pearson correlation (r) of the raw asset daily returns over the selected lookback window.
Asset Correlation Matrix
Pearson Correlation Coefficients (r) on Daily Returns -1.0 (Inverse) 0.0 (Neutral) +1.0 (Positive)
Top 5 Diversifier Suggestions
Lowest Pearson correlation (r) candidates evaluated dynamically across all system assets:
Multi-Horizon Correlation View Matrix in Compare Studio →
Alternatives Return vs. Correlation Space
Unified Portfolio Activity Log
Aggregated trade execution history across all portfolio members with portfolio-level weight allocation.
Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Ticker | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Subscribe to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-30 | CASH (CASH) | Interest | 60% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income |
| 2023-11-08 | 2025-04-07 | VTI | Completed | 60% | $208.74 | $236.52 | 13.25% | Stop |
| 2022-01-19 | 2024-08-05 | CASH (CASH) | Interest | 40% | $1.00 | $1.11 | 10.82% | Interest Income |
| 2022-11-07 | 2023-11-08 | CASH (CASH) | Interest | 60% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 5.11% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-18 | 2022-11-07 | VTI | Completed | 60% | $178.60 | $179.97 | 0.72% | Signal |
| 2022-09-26 | 2022-10-18 | CASH (CASH) | Interest | 60% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income |
| 2022-05-25 | 2022-09-26 | VTI | Completed | 60% | $184.49 | $174.19 | -5.63% | Stop |
| 2022-05-03 | 2022-05-25 | CASH (CASH) | Interest | 60% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-24 | 2022-05-03 | VTI | Completed | 60% | $107.06 | $196.29 | 83.26% | Stop |
| 2018-12-07 | 2022-01-19 | BND | Completed | 40% | $62.31 | $71.09 | 14.02% | Signal |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | CASH (CASH) | Interest | 60% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2019-01-15 | 2020-03-02 | VTI | Completed | 60% | $118.04 | $137.81 | 16.69% | Stop |
| 2018-12-20 | 2019-01-15 | CASH (CASH) | Interest | 60% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income |
| 2016-08-24 | 2018-12-20 | VTI | Completed | 60% | $95.66 | $113.19 | 18.27% | Stop |
| 2018-05-23 | 2018-12-07 | CASH (CASH) | Interest | 40% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.16% | Interest Income |
| 2014-08-26 | 2018-05-23 | BND | Completed | 40% | $58.05 | $61.35 | 5.63% | Signal |
| 2016-07-27 | 2016-08-24 | CASH (CASH) | Interest | 60% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-17 | 2016-07-27 | VTI | Completed | 60% | $86.45 | $94.79 | 9.60% | Signal |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-17 | CASH (CASH) | Interest | 60% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2011-08-31 | 2015-08-25 | VTI | Completed | 60% | $48.55 | $84.59 | 74.13% | Stop |
| 2013-11-25 | 2014-08-26 | CASH (CASH) | Interest | 40% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2009-04-02 | 2013-11-25 | BND | Completed | 40% | $45.80 | $55.87 | 21.93% | Signal |
| 2011-08-09 | 2011-08-31 | CASH (CASH) | Interest | 60% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2010-06-01 | 2011-08-09 | VTI | Completed | 60% | $41.72 | $44.93 | 7.65% | Stop |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | CASH (CASH) | Interest | 60% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2009-07-22 | 2010-05-07 | VTI | Completed | 60% | $35.40 | $43.40 | 22.55% | Stop |
| 2008-07-16 | 2009-07-22 | CASH (CASH) | Interest | 60% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.50% | Interest Income |
| 2009-03-31 | 2009-04-02 | CASH (CASH) | Interest | 40% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2008-02-12 | 2008-07-16 | VTI | Completed | 60% | $48.31 | $44.09 | -8.77% | Stop |
| 2008-01-18 | 2008-02-12 | CASH (CASH) | Interest | 60% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income |
| 2003-09-05 | 2008-01-18 | VTI | Completed | 60% | $32.69 | $47.33 | 44.70% | Stop |
| 2003-06-13 | 2003-09-05 | CASH (CASH) | Interest | 60% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income |