BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return SMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -8.7% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -18.6%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.1%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.6%. The strategy executed 3 total trades.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA Active
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
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BND Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 2.64% | 2.64% | 2.12% | -0.47% | 2.68% | 1.42% | 3.14% | 2.65% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.69 | -0.08 | 0.65 | 0.25 | 0.81 | 0.55 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.68% | -2.68% | -4.74% | -17.91% | -8.67% | -18.58% | -8.67% | -18.58% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 49.2% | 100.0% | 69.2% | 100.0% | 77.9% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2022-01-19 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.11 | 10.82% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-07 | 2022-01-19 | Completed | 100% | $62.53 | $71.34 | 14.02% | Signal | |
| 2018-05-23 | 2018-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.16% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-08-26 | 2018-05-23 | Completed | 100% | $58.26 | $61.57 | 5.63% | Signal | |
| 2013-11-25 | 2014-08-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-04-02 | 2013-11-25 | Completed | 100% | $45.96 | $56.06 | 21.93% | Signal | |
| 2009-03-31 | 2009-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |