BSCR Invesco Bulletshares 2027 Corporate Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for BSCR (Invesco Bulletshares 2027 Corporate Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -8.3% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -17.3%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.9%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.5%. The strategy executed 16 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
BSCR Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | Full History | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 4.82% | 4.78% | 2.89% | 1.43% | 3.89% | 2.47% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 4.56 | 4.32 | 1.69 | 0.35 | 1.13 | 0.42 |
| Max Drawdown | -0.42% | -0.42% | -4.34% | -14.87% | -8.32% | -17.26% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 72.7% | 100.0% | 78.6% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-07 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $18.89 | $19.65 | 3.97% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2024-10-04 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $18.32 | $19.65 | 7.22% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-04 | Open | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-04-24 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-16 | 2026-04-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.61 | $19.57 | 5.17% | Signal |
| 2025-06-05 | 2025-07-07 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2024-04-01 | 2025-06-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.57 | $18.81 | 7.06% | Signal |
| 2025-01-06 | 2025-04-16 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.75% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-08 | 2025-01-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.03 | $18.31 | 1.55% | Signal |
| 2024-10-02 | 2024-10-04 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-02 | 2024-10-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.96% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-02 | 2024-08-08 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income |
| 2024-05-10 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.29% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.08 | 7.87% | Interest Income |
| 2024-01-11 | 2024-05-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.50 | $17.57 | 0.44% | Signal |
| 2023-09-14 | 2024-04-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 3.68% | Interest Income |
| 2023-07-11 | 2024-01-11 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.26% | Interest Income |
| 2023-08-04 | 2023-09-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.87 | $16.85 | -0.09% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-08-04 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.14% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-13 | 2023-07-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.92 | $16.76 | -0.94% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-06-13 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income |
| 2023-05-19 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2023-02-08 | 2023-05-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.79 | $16.86 | 0.43% | Signal |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-02-08 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.57% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-15 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-06 | 2022-03-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.01 | $17.22 | 7.60% | Stop |
| 2022-01-31 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-09-13 | 2022-01-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.51 | $17.83 | -3.70% | Signal |
| 2021-11-19 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-07-20 | 2021-11-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.51 | $18.21 | -1.63% | Signal |
| 2021-09-02 | 2021-09-13 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-08-03 | 2021-09-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-07-12 | 2021-08-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-05-04 | 2021-07-20 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-06 | 2021-07-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.01 | $18.42 | 15.10% | Signal |
| 2021-04-15 | 2021-05-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-05-28 | 2021-04-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.46 | $18.16 | 4.01% | Signal |
| 2020-04-08 | 2020-05-28 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-06 | 2020-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.01 | $16.17 | 1.02% | Signal |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2019-09-24 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.67 | $16.76 | 0.53% | Stop |
| 2019-09-24 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.67 | $16.76 | 0.53% | Stop |
| 2019-09-24 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.67 | $16.76 | 0.53% | Stop |
| 2019-09-20 | 2019-09-24 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2019-09-20 | 2019-09-24 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2019-09-20 | 2019-09-24 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |