DVY iShares Select Dividend ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for DVY (iShares Select Dividend ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -17.8% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -62.6%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.8%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 8.5%. The strategy executed 43 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
DVY Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 17.61% | 22.70% | 5.87% | 8.84% | 8.99% | 10.32% | 10.85% | 8.46% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.69 | 1.86 | 0.51 | 0.56 | 0.76 | 0.55 | 0.88 | 0.42 |
| Max Drawdown | -6.89% | -6.89% | -17.76% | -17.54% | -17.76% | -41.59% | -17.80% | -62.59% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 85.2% | 100.0% | 91.4% | 100.0% | 90.2% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-03 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $139.59 | $154.96 | 11.01% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-07-24 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $134.20 | $154.96 | 15.47% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-05-01 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $123.85 | $154.96 | 25.12% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-06-10 | 2025-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.78% | Interest Income |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-07-24 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.90% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-06-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $123.49 | $126.96 | 2.81% | Signal |
| 2025-05-02 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.21% | Interest Income |
| 2025-03-04 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.41% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.64% | Interest Income |
| 2024-03-11 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $109.97 | $119.46 | 8.64% | Stop |
| 2024-03-11 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $109.97 | $114.61 | 4.22% | Stop |
| 2024-01-16 | 2025-03-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $106.70 | $130.86 | 22.65% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-03-11 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 5.28% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-03-11 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 5.28% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-01-16 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 4.07% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $104.92 | $97.64 | -6.94% | Signal |
| 2023-04-19 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.54% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2023-01-05 | 2023-04-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $107.58 | $106.08 | -1.40% | Signal |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-04 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2023-03-29 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.51% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-20 | 2023-03-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $97.77 | $102.83 | 5.17% | Signal |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-01-05 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.74% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-10-20 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-28 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.24% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-27 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.30% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2021-02-10 | 2022-09-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $85.68 | $96.07 | 12.13% | Stop |
| 2022-07-13 | 2022-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $100.96 | $97.19 | -3.74% | Stop |
| 2022-09-01 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2022-08-17 | 2022-09-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $110.31 | $103.93 | -5.78% | Stop |
| 2022-07-15 | 2022-08-17 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income |
| 2022-07-13 | 2022-07-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $100.96 | $101.00 | 0.03% | Signal |
| 2022-06-17 | 2022-07-13 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2022-06-17 | 2022-07-13 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2021-10-28 | 2022-06-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $100.24 | $99.06 | -1.18% | Stop |
| 2020-11-25 | 2022-06-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $79.51 | $99.06 | 24.58% | Stop |
| 2021-09-14 | 2021-10-28 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2020-07-24 | 2021-09-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.39 | $99.55 | 45.57% | Signal |
| 2020-12-02 | 2021-02-10 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income |
| 2020-11-03 | 2020-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-25 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2020-07-02 | 2020-11-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.43% | Interest Income |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-11-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.09% | Interest Income |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-07-24 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.76% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-07-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.30 | $65.94 | 26.10% | Signal |
| 2020-04-21 | 2020-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-03 | 2020-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.39% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-04-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.30 | $61.02 | 16.69% | Signal |
| 2020-03-03 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-03 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2019-09-10 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $78.47 | $73.40 | -6.46% | Stop |
| 2019-06-25 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $77.03 | $73.40 | -4.72% | Stop |
| 2015-09-17 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.54 | $73.40 | 45.23% | Stop |
| 2019-08-16 | 2019-09-10 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income |
| 2019-04-01 | 2019-08-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $76.15 | $74.46 | -2.22% | Signal |
| 2019-03-04 | 2019-06-25 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.06% | Interest Income |
| 2019-03-04 | 2019-04-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Interest Income |
| 2019-02-06 | 2019-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-04 | 2019-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.61% | Interest Income |
| 2019-01-18 | 2019-02-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $71.42 | $73.15 | 2.42% | Signal |
| 2018-12-26 | 2019-01-18 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2016-03-14 | 2018-12-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $55.94 | $65.38 | 16.86% | Stop |
| 2018-11-29 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2018-07-02 | 2018-11-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $73.38 | $73.79 | 0.55% | Signal |
| 2018-04-25 | 2018-07-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2016-12-30 | 2018-04-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $63.86 | $71.37 | 11.75% | Signal |
| 2016-12-07 | 2016-12-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income |
| 2015-12-03 | 2016-12-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.63 | $62.75 | 19.23% | Signal |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-03-14 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2015-11-03 | 2016-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income |
| 2015-11-03 | 2015-12-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-11-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-11-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-04 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2012-02-01 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $32.78 | $49.49 | 50.99% | Stop |
| 2011-09-01 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $30.42 | $49.49 | 62.67% | Stop |
| 2015-07-02 | 2015-08-03 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-05-19 | 2015-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2014-11-12 | 2015-05-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.32 | $53.53 | 2.32% | Signal |
| 2014-11-04 | 2014-11-12 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2014-10-21 | 2014-11-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2011-11-25 | 2014-10-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $29.68 | $49.30 | 66.10% | Signal |
| 2012-01-04 | 2012-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.14% | Interest Income |
| 2011-12-19 | 2012-01-03 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2011-08-31 | 2011-12-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $30.45 | $31.57 | 3.68% | Signal |
| 2011-08-09 | 2011-11-25 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2011-08-10 | 2011-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2011-08-09 | 2011-08-31 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2010-06-01 | 2011-08-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.92 | $27.90 | 11.93% | Stop |
| 2010-09-29 | 2011-08-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $27.20 | $27.68 | 1.79% | Stop |
| 2010-06-01 | 2011-08-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.92 | $27.68 | 11.07% | Stop |
| 2010-09-02 | 2010-09-29 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2010-07-30 | 2010-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-07-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.92 | $25.96 | 4.15% | Signal |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2009-03-19 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.13 | $25.58 | 49.34% | Stop |
| 2009-03-19 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.13 | $25.58 | 49.34% | Stop |
| 2009-03-19 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.13 | $25.58 | 49.34% | Stop |
| 2009-01-05 | 2009-03-19 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-05 | 2009-03-19 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-05 | 2009-03-19 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income |
| 2008-09-03 | 2009-01-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.77% | Interest Income |
| 2008-09-03 | 2009-01-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.77% | Interest Income |
| 2008-09-03 | 2009-01-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.77% | Interest Income |
| 2008-06-03 | 2008-09-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.49% | Interest Income |
| 2008-06-03 | 2008-09-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.49% | Interest Income |
| 2008-06-03 | 2008-09-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.49% | Interest Income |
| 2008-04-29 | 2008-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2007-10-18 | 2008-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.39% | Interest Income |
| 2007-08-13 | 2008-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.37% | Interest Income |
| 2008-01-30 | 2008-04-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $32.52 | $31.31 | -3.71% | Signal |
| 2008-01-07 | 2008-01-30 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.49% | Interest Income |
| 2005-11-02 | 2008-01-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $29.15 | $31.83 | 9.18% | Stop |
| 2007-09-11 | 2007-10-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $34.37 | $34.93 | 1.65% | Signal |
| 2007-08-17 | 2007-09-11 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income |
| 2006-04-24 | 2007-08-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $30.53 | $35.38 | 15.87% | Stop |
| 2006-01-31 | 2007-08-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $30.10 | $34.89 | 15.91% | Signal |
| 2006-03-08 | 2006-04-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.58% | Interest Income |
| 2005-11-02 | 2006-03-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $29.15 | $30.02 | 2.98% | Signal |
| 2005-10-31 | 2006-01-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.97% | Interest Income |
| 2005-10-31 | 2005-11-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2005-10-31 | 2005-11-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |