EMB
iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for EMB (iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -20.7% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -28.7%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.7%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 4.4%. The strategy executed 62 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
EMB Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 7.39% | 7.76% | -0.67% | 1.55% | 1.33% | 2.80% | 2.71% | 4.38% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.31 | 1.33 | -0.12 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 0.28 | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| Max Drawdown | -4.51% | -4.51% | -19.64% | -28.74% | -20.73% | -28.74% | -20.73% | -28.74% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 79.9% | 100.0% | 84.6% | 100.0% | 88.8% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-07-03 | 2026-04-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.67 | $94.50 | 7.75% | Signal | |
| 2025-05-19 | 2025-07-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.79% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-15 | 2025-07-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.57% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-05 | 2025-05-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $84.19 | $84.70 | 0.55% | Signal | |
| 2025-05-01 | 2025-05-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $84.63 | $84.94 | 0.32% | Signal | |
| 2025-04-10 | 2025-05-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-10 | 2025-05-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-01-14 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-04-04 | 2025-04-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $79.44 | $82.62 | 3.95% | Stop | |
| 2024-03-11 | 2025-04-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $78.89 | $82.62 | 4.68% | Stop | |
| 2024-01-12 | 2025-01-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $77.54 | $82.12 | 5.85% | Signal | |
| 2022-09-27 | 2024-04-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.08 | 7.82% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-10-03 | 2024-03-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-10-02 | 2024-01-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.53% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-14 | 2023-10-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.55 | $70.14 | -3.36% | Signal | |
| 2023-08-08 | 2023-10-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $74.01 | $70.84 | -4.33% | Signal | |
| 2023-05-16 | 2023-08-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-23 | 2023-05-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $73.72 | $71.82 | -2.63% | Signal | |
| 2022-09-27 | 2023-04-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.41% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-27 | 2023-01-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-07-26 | 2022-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $69.77 | $65.95 | -5.52% | Stop | |
| 2022-07-26 | 2022-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $69.77 | $65.95 | -5.52% | Stop | |
| 2022-07-26 | 2022-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $69.77 | $65.95 | -5.52% | Stop | |
| 2022-06-14 | 2022-07-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-06-14 | 2022-07-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-06-14 | 2022-07-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-06-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $73.97 | $69.52 | -6.07% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-06-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $73.97 | $69.52 | -6.07% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-06-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $73.97 | $69.52 | -6.07% | Stop | |
| 2022-04-20 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-01-19 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-11-19 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-29 | 2022-04-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $78.18 | $75.40 | -3.61% | Signal | |
| 2022-03-07 | 2022-03-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-10 | 2022-03-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $82.90 | $75.77 | -8.64% | Stop | |
| 2022-01-19 | 2022-02-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-08-19 | 2022-01-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.72 | $83.38 | -5.00% | Stop | |
| 2021-03-31 | 2022-01-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.63 | $83.38 | -0.35% | Stop | |
| 2021-07-02 | 2021-11-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.19 | $86.48 | -0.87% | Signal | |
| 2021-07-28 | 2021-08-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-31 | 2021-07-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.63 | $87.33 | 4.38% | Signal | |
| 2021-04-12 | 2021-07-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-31 | 2021-04-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.63 | $84.94 | 1.52% | Signal | |
| 2021-03-09 | 2021-03-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-09 | 2021-03-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-09 | 2021-03-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-23 | 2021-03-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $84.55 | $83.07 | -1.79% | Stop | |
| 2020-07-15 | 2021-03-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $82.66 | $83.07 | 0.44% | Stop | |
| 2020-04-01 | 2021-03-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $70.67 | $83.07 | 17.48% | Stop | |
| 2020-04-13 | 2020-07-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-07-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-01 | 2020-04-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $70.67 | $75.03 | 6.11% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-25 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $75.63 | $80.90 | 6.90% | Stop | |
| 2019-01-25 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $75.63 | $80.90 | 6.90% | Stop | |
| 2019-01-25 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $75.63 | $80.90 | 6.90% | Stop | |
| 2018-10-10 | 2019-01-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.68% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-04-27 | 2019-01-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.60% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-03-01 | 2019-01-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.88% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-06-01 | 2018-10-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.76 | $72.63 | -0.23% | Signal | |
| 2018-05-09 | 2018-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-07 | 2018-05-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $69.57 | $72.01 | 3.44% | Stop | |
| 2017-05-26 | 2018-04-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $74.34 | $73.90 | -0.65% | Signal | |
| 2017-03-24 | 2018-03-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.63 | $74.83 | 2.97% | Signal | |
| 2017-03-31 | 2017-05-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-07 | 2017-03-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $69.57 | $72.67 | 4.39% | Signal | |
| 2016-12-14 | 2017-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-07 | 2016-12-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $69.57 | $69.74 | 0.19% | Signal | |
| 2016-11-14 | 2016-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-11-14 | 2016-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-11-14 | 2016-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-05-18 | 2016-11-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.69 | $67.99 | -1.06% | Stop | |
| 2016-03-31 | 2016-11-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $67.25 | $67.99 | 1.06% | Stop | |
| 2016-03-30 | 2016-11-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $67.09 | $67.99 | 1.30% | Stop | |
| 2016-04-01 | 2016-05-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-01-12 | 2016-04-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $63.40 | $67.27 | 6.04% | Signal | |
| 2015-10-16 | 2016-03-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-05 | 2016-03-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-13 | 2016-02-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $64.71 | $63.83 | -1.42% | Signal | |
| 2015-06-08 | 2015-10-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $64.59 | $65.28 | 1.03% | Signal | |
| 2015-08-04 | 2015-10-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-04-09 | 2015-08-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.34 | $64.53 | -2.79% | Signal | |
| 2015-03-17 | 2015-06-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-12-04 | 2015-04-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-01-12 | 2015-03-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $63.40 | $63.61 | 0.28% | Signal | |
| 2014-12-17 | 2015-01-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-12-17 | 2015-01-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-06-03 | 2014-12-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $64.63 | $61.54 | -4.84% | Stop | |
| 2014-01-21 | 2014-12-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $60.23 | $61.54 | 2.12% | Stop | |
| 2013-11-29 | 2014-12-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $59.46 | $64.67 | 8.71% | Signal | |
| 2014-01-16 | 2014-06-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-06-07 | 2014-01-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-07-01 | 2014-01-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $58.80 | $60.19 | 2.30% | Signal | |
| 2013-03-22 | 2013-11-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-06-07 | 2013-07-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-10-19 | 2013-06-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $54.33 | $61.00 | 12.22% | Stop | |
| 2011-10-19 | 2013-06-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $54.33 | $61.00 | 12.22% | Stop | |
| 2012-01-18 | 2013-03-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $54.94 | $62.62 | 13.92% | Signal | |
| 2011-12-22 | 2012-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-10-19 | 2011-12-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $54.33 | $55.29 | 1.70% | Signal | |
| 2011-09-27 | 2011-10-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-09-27 | 2011-10-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-09-27 | 2011-10-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-07-15 | 2011-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $53.95 | $51.92 | -3.83% | Stop | |
| 2011-05-18 | 2011-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $53.31 | $51.92 | -2.66% | Stop | |
| 2010-12-20 | 2011-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $51.22 | $51.92 | 1.32% | Stop | |
| 2011-05-26 | 2011-07-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-12-20 | 2011-05-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $51.22 | $53.17 | 3.76% | Signal | |
| 2011-02-01 | 2011-05-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-12-20 | 2011-02-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $51.22 | $51.19 | -0.10% | Signal | |
| 2010-11-26 | 2010-12-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-11-26 | 2010-12-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-11-26 | 2010-12-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-11-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.35 | $52.10 | 9.97% | Stop | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-11-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.35 | $52.10 | 9.97% | Stop | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-11-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.35 | $52.10 | 9.97% | Stop | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-12-14 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.52 | $46.76 | 0.46% | Stop | |
| 2009-12-14 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.52 | $46.76 | 0.46% | Stop | |
| 2009-12-14 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.52 | $46.76 | 0.46% | Stop | |
| 2009-12-10 | 2009-12-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-12-10 | 2009-12-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-12-10 | 2009-12-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |