EMB
iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-09-04
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for EMB (iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -20.7% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -28.7%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.7%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 4.4%. The strategy executed 63 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Strategy Model 4 Models Available
Compare quantitative moving average overlays for EMB:
Excess Return MMA Active Model
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Trading Horizon
Select risk profile & execution style for EMB:
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active Horizon
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
🛡️ EMB Drawdown Shield & Downside Protection
Why Drawdown Dictates Longevity →Peak Drawdown Defense
-20.7% (vs -28.7% B&H)
+8.0% shallower drawdown
Drawdown Shield
8.0% Cut
Protected capital vs -28.7% B&H
Capital Sheltered from Risk
27.8% of Time
Earning Treasury yield during downturns
* Drawdown Shield demonstrates how systematic trend-following bounded historical drawdowns and protected principal capital compared to passive Buy & Hold.
📊 EMB Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| Max Drawdown | -4.51% | -4.51% | -19.44% | -28.57% | -20.73% | -28.74% | -20.73% | -28.74% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.93 | 0.96 | -0.13 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 0.26 | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| Sortino Ratio | 1.34 | 1.40 | -0.14 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| CAGR | 5.21% | 5.62% | -0.73% | 1.47% | 1.15% | 2.63% | 2.73% | 4.39% |
| % Time Invested | 95.4% | 100.0% | 62.3% | 100.0% | 68.3% | 100.0% | 72.2% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
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Loading Top Diversifiers for EMB... Top Diversifiers for EMB
Explore Correlation Across Horizons →Top 5 non-correlated asset sleeves evaluated on 1Y daily percentage returns (Pearson r). Compare them side-by-side in Compare Studio to analyze portfolio diversification.
| Diversifier Asset | Category | 1Y Correlation (r) | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading top diversifier assets... | |||
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Subscribe to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-04-30 | 2026-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-07-03 | 2026-04-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $86.90 | $93.68 | 7.75% | Signal | |
| 2025-05-19 | 2025-07-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.79% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-15 | 2025-07-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.57% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-05 | 2025-05-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.46 | $83.96 | 0.55% | Signal | |
| 2025-05-01 | 2025-05-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.89 | $84.20 | 0.32% | Signal | |
| 2025-04-10 | 2025-05-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-10 | 2025-05-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-01-14 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-04-04 | 2025-04-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $78.75 | $81.89 | 3.95% | Stop | |
| 2024-03-11 | 2025-04-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $78.20 | $81.89 | 4.68% | Stop | |
| 2024-01-12 | 2025-01-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $76.86 | $81.40 | 5.85% | Signal | |
| 2022-09-27 | 2024-04-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.08 | 7.82% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-10-03 | 2024-03-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-10-02 | 2024-01-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.53% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-14 | 2023-10-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $71.91 | $69.53 | -3.36% | Signal | |
| 2023-08-08 | 2023-10-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $73.36 | $70.22 | -4.33% | Signal | |
| 2023-05-16 | 2023-08-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-23 | 2023-05-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $73.07 | $71.19 | -2.63% | Signal | |
| 2022-09-27 | 2023-04-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.41% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-27 | 2023-01-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-07-26 | 2022-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $69.17 | $65.38 | -5.52% | Stop | |
| 2022-07-26 | 2022-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $69.17 | $65.38 | -5.52% | Stop | |
| 2022-07-26 | 2022-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $69.17 | $65.38 | -5.52% | Stop | |
| 2022-06-14 | 2022-07-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-06-14 | 2022-07-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-06-14 | 2022-07-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-06-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $73.33 | $68.91 | -6.07% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-06-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $73.33 | $68.91 | -6.07% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-06-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $73.33 | $68.91 | -6.07% | Stop | |
| 2022-04-20 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-01-19 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-11-19 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-29 | 2022-04-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $77.50 | $74.74 | -3.61% | Signal | |
| 2022-03-07 | 2022-03-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-10 | 2022-03-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $82.18 | $75.11 | -8.64% | Stop | |
| 2022-01-19 | 2022-02-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-08-19 | 2022-01-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $86.96 | $82.65 | -5.00% | Stop | |
| 2021-03-31 | 2022-01-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $82.90 | $82.65 | -0.35% | Stop | |
| 2021-07-02 | 2021-11-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $86.43 | $85.72 | -0.87% | Signal | |
| 2021-07-28 | 2021-08-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-31 | 2021-07-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $82.90 | $86.57 | 4.38% | Signal | |
| 2021-04-12 | 2021-07-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-31 | 2021-04-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $82.90 | $84.20 | 1.52% | Signal | |
| 2021-03-09 | 2021-03-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-09 | 2021-03-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-09 | 2021-03-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-23 | 2021-03-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.81 | $82.35 | -1.79% | Stop | |
| 2020-07-15 | 2021-03-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $81.94 | $82.35 | 0.44% | Stop | |
| 2020-04-01 | 2021-03-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $70.06 | $82.35 | 17.48% | Stop | |
| 2020-04-13 | 2020-07-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-07-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-01 | 2020-04-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $70.06 | $74.37 | 6.11% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-25 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $74.97 | $80.19 | 6.90% | Stop | |
| 2019-01-25 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $74.97 | $80.19 | 6.90% | Stop | |
| 2019-01-25 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $74.97 | $80.19 | 6.90% | Stop | |
| 2018-10-10 | 2019-01-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.68% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-04-27 | 2019-01-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.60% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-03-01 | 2019-01-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.88% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-06-01 | 2018-10-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.12 | $71.99 | -0.23% | Signal | |
| 2018-05-09 | 2018-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-07 | 2018-05-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.97 | $71.38 | 3.44% | Stop | |
| 2017-05-26 | 2018-04-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $73.70 | $73.26 | -0.65% | Signal | |
| 2017-03-24 | 2018-03-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.00 | $74.17 | 2.97% | Signal | |
| 2017-03-31 | 2017-05-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-07 | 2017-03-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.97 | $72.03 | 4.39% | Signal | |
| 2016-12-14 | 2017-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-07 | 2016-12-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.97 | $69.13 | 0.19% | Signal | |
| 2016-11-14 | 2016-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-11-14 | 2016-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-11-14 | 2016-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-05-18 | 2016-11-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.09 | $67.40 | -1.06% | Stop | |
| 2016-03-31 | 2016-11-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.66 | $67.40 | 1.06% | Stop | |
| 2016-03-30 | 2016-11-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.50 | $67.40 | 1.30% | Stop | |
| 2016-04-01 | 2016-05-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-01-12 | 2016-04-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.85 | $66.68 | 6.04% | Signal | |
| 2015-10-16 | 2016-03-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-05 | 2016-03-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-13 | 2016-02-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $64.15 | $63.27 | -1.42% | Signal | |
| 2015-06-08 | 2015-10-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $64.02 | $64.71 | 1.03% | Signal | |
| 2015-08-04 | 2015-10-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-04-09 | 2015-08-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $65.77 | $63.97 | -2.79% | Signal | |
| 2015-03-17 | 2015-06-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-12-04 | 2015-04-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-01-12 | 2015-03-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.85 | $63.06 | 0.28% | Signal | |
| 2014-12-17 | 2015-01-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-12-17 | 2015-01-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-06-03 | 2014-12-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $64.07 | $61.00 | -4.84% | Stop | |
| 2014-01-21 | 2014-12-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $59.70 | $61.00 | 2.12% | Stop | |
| 2013-11-29 | 2014-12-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $58.94 | $64.11 | 8.71% | Signal | |
| 2014-01-16 | 2014-06-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-06-07 | 2014-01-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-07-01 | 2014-01-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $58.29 | $59.66 | 2.30% | Signal | |
| 2013-03-22 | 2013-11-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-06-07 | 2013-07-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-10-19 | 2013-06-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $53.86 | $60.47 | 12.22% | Stop | |
| 2011-10-19 | 2013-06-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $53.86 | $60.47 | 12.22% | Stop | |
| 2012-01-18 | 2013-03-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $54.47 | $62.08 | 13.92% | Signal | |
| 2011-12-22 | 2012-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-10-19 | 2011-12-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $53.86 | $54.80 | 1.70% | Signal | |
| 2011-09-27 | 2011-10-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-09-27 | 2011-10-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-09-27 | 2011-10-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-07-15 | 2011-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $53.48 | $51.46 | -3.83% | Stop | |
| 2011-05-18 | 2011-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.84 | $51.46 | -2.66% | Stop | |
| 2010-12-20 | 2011-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.77 | $51.46 | 1.32% | Stop | |
| 2011-05-26 | 2011-07-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-12-20 | 2011-05-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.77 | $52.71 | 3.76% | Signal | |
| 2011-02-01 | 2011-05-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-12-20 | 2011-02-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.77 | $50.74 | -0.10% | Signal | |
| 2010-11-26 | 2010-12-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-11-26 | 2010-12-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-11-26 | 2010-12-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-11-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.94 | $51.64 | 9.97% | Stop | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-11-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.94 | $51.64 | 9.97% | Stop | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-11-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.94 | $51.64 | 9.97% | Stop | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-12-14 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.12 | $46.35 | 0.46% | Stop | |
| 2009-12-14 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.12 | $46.35 | 0.46% | Stop | |
| 2009-12-14 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.12 | $46.35 | 0.46% | Stop | |
| 2009-12-10 | 2009-12-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-12-10 | 2009-12-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-12-10 | 2009-12-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |