FTEC
Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for FTEC (Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -28.8% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -35.0%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 17.7%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 22.9%. The strategy executed 40 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
FTEC Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 16.30% | 32.96% | 8.60% | 17.96% | 19.04% | 24.00% | 17.74% | 22.87% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.69 | 1.21 | 0.43 | 0.65 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.87 | 0.84 |
| Max Drawdown | -13.24% | -16.26% | -28.77% | -34.95% | -28.77% | -34.95% | -28.77% | -34.95% |
| % Time Invested | 97.2% | 100.0% | 88.2% | 100.0% | 93.5% | 100.0% | 93.4% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2026-03-30 | 2026-04-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2026-03-06 | 2026-04-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-01 | 2026-03-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $166.30 | $201.74 | 21.25% | Stop | |
| 2025-09-05 | 2026-03-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $208.60 | $204.95 | -1.80% | Stop | |
| 2025-07-07 | 2026-03-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $198.74 | $214.83 | 8.04% | Signal | |
| 2025-06-09 | 2025-09-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-10 | 2025-07-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.38% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-06-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $159.01 | $186.21 | 17.05% | Signal | |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-02 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $159.38 | $147.71 | -7.37% | Stop | |
| 2025-04-01 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $159.67 | $135.18 | -15.38% | Stop | |
| 2025-03-11 | 2025-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-10 | 2025-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-28 | 2025-03-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $169.61 | $161.80 | -4.66% | Stop | |
| 2024-08-27 | 2025-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $168.14 | $166.59 | -0.97% | Stop | |
| 2024-08-27 | 2025-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $168.14 | $166.59 | -0.97% | Stop | |
| 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-08-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-08-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2024-08-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $98.39 | $153.10 | 55.53% | Stop | |
| 2023-12-18 | 2024-08-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $140.96 | $146.07 | 3.57% | Stop | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2024-08-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $98.39 | $146.07 | 48.39% | Stop | |
| 2023-11-02 | 2023-12-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.66% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-11-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $98.39 | $122.87 | 24.82% | Signal | |
| 2022-11-02 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.88% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-26 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.96% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-19 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-11 | 2022-11-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.21 | $94.53 | 7.11% | Signal | |
| 2022-10-11 | 2022-10-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.21 | $93.55 | 6.01% | Signal | |
| 2022-09-19 | 2022-10-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-14 | 2022-10-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-06-01 | 2022-09-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $104.93 | $94.94 | -9.57% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-09 | 2022-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-17 | 2022-05-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $101.70 | $97.04 | -4.63% | Signal | |
| 2022-04-25 | 2022-05-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-16 | 2022-05-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $118.95 | $102.36 | -13.99% | Stop | |
| 2022-02-15 | 2022-04-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $118.14 | $106.70 | -9.73% | Stop | |
| 2022-02-15 | 2022-03-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $118.14 | $107.11 | -9.38% | Signal | |
| 2022-01-25 | 2022-02-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-01-24 | 2022-02-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-01-24 | 2022-02-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2022-01-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $55.69 | $114.00 | 104.58% | Stop | |
| 2020-10-13 | 2022-01-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $94.55 | $113.40 | 19.88% | Stop | |
| 2020-10-13 | 2022-01-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $94.55 | $113.40 | 19.88% | Stop | |
| 2020-09-21 | 2020-10-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-09-21 | 2020-10-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-18 | 2020-09-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $77.12 | $83.00 | 7.57% | Stop | |
| 2020-03-23 | 2020-09-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.73 | $83.00 | 57.32% | Stop | |
| 2020-05-01 | 2020-06-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-23 | 2020-05-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.73 | $66.91 | 26.82% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-02-28 | 2020-03-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-02-28 | 2020-03-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-17 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.92 | $67.42 | 40.60% | Stop | |
| 2019-02-27 | 2020-02-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $53.85 | $63.31 | 17.51% | Stop | |
| 2019-02-20 | 2020-02-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.96 | $63.31 | 19.47% | Stop | |
| 2019-02-04 | 2019-02-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-26 | 2019-02-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.54% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-16 | 2019-02-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.15 | $50.58 | 5.00% | Signal | |
| 2018-12-21 | 2019-01-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-21 | 2018-12-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.35 | $45.69 | -5.54% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-21 | 2018-12-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-21 | 2018-11-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.35 | $48.34 | -0.07% | Signal | |
| 2018-10-30 | 2018-11-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-10-30 | 2018-11-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-12 | 2018-11-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.36 | $48.35 | 83.29% | Stop | |
| 2016-07-14 | 2018-10-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $30.97 | $49.36 | 59.32% | Stop | |
| 2016-03-23 | 2018-10-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $29.88 | $49.36 | 65.12% | Stop | |
| 2016-05-06 | 2016-07-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-03-22 | 2016-05-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $29.70 | $28.68 | -3.46% | Signal | |
| 2016-03-01 | 2016-03-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-01-07 | 2016-03-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-10 | 2016-03-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.36 | $28.21 | 6.94% | Signal | |
| 2016-01-21 | 2016-02-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-01-19 | 2016-02-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-20 | 2016-01-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $29.38 | $27.08 | -7.89% | Stop | |
| 2015-11-30 | 2016-01-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $30.90 | $27.44 | -11.24% | Stop | |
| 2015-10-20 | 2016-01-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $29.38 | $28.35 | -3.54% | Signal | |
| 2015-10-16 | 2015-11-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-16 | 2015-10-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-16 | 2015-10-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |