IEFA iShares Core MSCI Eafe ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for IEFA (iShares Core MSCI Eafe ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -18.6% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -34.8%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.0%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 8.0%. The strategy executed 33 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
IEFA Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 23.34% | 23.34% | 5.30% | 8.39% | 8.08% | 9.37% | 6.03% | 8.02% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.41 | 1.41 | 0.45 | 0.49 | 0.70 | 0.52 | 0.54 | 0.45 |
| Max Drawdown | -11.50% | -11.50% | -18.47% | -30.41% | -18.47% | -34.79% | -18.60% | -34.79% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 90.9% | 100.0% | 93.7% | 100.0% | 91.0% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-21 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $79.35 | $98.02 | 23.52% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-05-01 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $76.06 | $98.02 | 28.87% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2023-11-09 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $59.53 | $98.02 | 64.66% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-05-02 | 2025-05-21 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.21% | Interest Income |
| 2025-02-24 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.51% | Interest Income |
| 2025-03-24 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $74.71 | $67.94 | -9.06% | Stop |
| 2024-12-17 | 2025-03-24 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.28% | Interest Income |
| 2023-12-15 | 2025-02-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $64.14 | $73.17 | 14.07% | Signal |
| 2023-12-15 | 2024-12-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $64.14 | $69.34 | 8.10% | Signal |
| 2023-11-15 | 2023-12-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.60% | Interest Income |
| 2023-09-20 | 2023-12-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.46% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-10 | 2023-11-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $60.18 | $61.00 | 1.36% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-11-09 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.77% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-30 | 2023-09-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $55.90 | $61.40 | 9.84% | Signal |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-04-10 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2023-03-16 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.99% | Interest Income |
| 2023-03-16 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.99% | Interest Income |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-03-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $60.63 | $56.34 | -7.08% | Stop |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-03-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $60.63 | $56.34 | -7.08% | Stop |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.86% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.86% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2022-12-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.58% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-07-11 | 2022-09-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.03 | $51.97 | -0.12% | Signal |
| 2022-03-04 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-06-15 | 2022-07-11 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-30 | 2022-06-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.21 | $52.92 | -14.93% | Stop |
| 2022-03-08 | 2022-03-30 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-02-10 | 2022-03-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.27 | $56.20 | -8.27% | Stop |
| 2020-10-06 | 2022-03-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $51.86 | $57.55 | 10.97% | Signal |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-12-08 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-07-02 | 2021-12-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.07 | $64.96 | 32.37% | Signal |
| 2021-01-14 | 2021-02-10 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-01 | 2021-01-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.08 | $60.55 | 51.07% | Signal |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-10-06 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.19% | Interest Income |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-07-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.66% | Interest Income |
| 2020-05-01 | 2020-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-26 | 2020-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-05-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.76 | $43.44 | 12.05% | Signal |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-03-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.76 | $40.64 | 4.83% | Signal |
| 2020-03-03 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-03 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2019-06-12 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.54 | $46.32 | -6.51% | Stop |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2019-09-13 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.74 | $48.60 | -4.22% | Stop |
| 2019-06-12 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.54 | $48.60 | -1.90% | Stop |
| 2019-08-16 | 2019-09-13 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2019-03-27 | 2019-08-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.93 | $47.58 | -2.75% | Signal |
| 2019-03-04 | 2019-06-12 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.94% | Interest Income |
| 2019-03-04 | 2019-06-12 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.94% | Interest Income |
| 2019-03-04 | 2019-03-27 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income |
| 2019-02-28 | 2019-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-04 | 2019-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.61% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-04 | 2019-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.61% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-15 | 2019-02-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.43 | $48.58 | 4.63% | Signal |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-11-15 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2018-10-24 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2018-10-11 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2018-10-11 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2017-04-04 | 2018-10-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.84 | $46.68 | 6.48% | Stop |
| 2018-09-19 | 2018-10-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.77 | $48.11 | -5.23% | Stop |
| 2018-09-19 | 2018-10-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.77 | $48.11 | -5.23% | Stop |
| 2018-08-21 | 2018-09-19 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income |
| 2018-05-03 | 2018-09-19 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.96% | Interest Income |
| 2016-08-12 | 2018-08-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.28 | $50.35 | 21.97% | Signal |
| 2017-02-09 | 2018-05-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.34 | $52.01 | 22.84% | Signal |
| 2016-11-02 | 2017-04-04 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.69% | Interest Income |
| 2016-12-29 | 2017-02-09 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income |
| 2016-05-12 | 2016-12-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.85 | $40.64 | 1.99% | Signal |
| 2016-10-04 | 2016-11-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2016-04-04 | 2016-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.17% | Interest Income |
| 2016-04-04 | 2016-08-12 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.88% | Interest Income |
| 2016-04-04 | 2016-05-12 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.39% | Interest Income |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2016-01-07 | 2016-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2016-01-07 | 2016-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2015-11-16 | 2016-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2015-10-09 | 2016-01-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.11 | $38.04 | -7.45% | Stop |
| 2015-10-09 | 2016-01-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.11 | $38.04 | -7.45% | Stop |
| 2015-09-17 | 2015-11-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.34 | $40.06 | -0.69% | Signal |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-10-09 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-10-09 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-26 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2014-10-22 | 2015-08-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.05 | $39.72 | -0.83% | Signal |
| 2015-04-29 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.23 | $39.33 | -11.09% | Stop |
| 2015-03-18 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.78 | $39.33 | -5.87% | Stop |
| 2015-03-03 | 2015-04-29 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income |
| 2015-03-03 | 2015-03-18 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income |
| 2015-02-03 | 2015-03-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2015-02-03 | 2015-03-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2015-01-05 | 2015-02-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-01-05 | 2015-02-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2014-12-03 | 2015-01-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2014-12-02 | 2015-01-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2014-10-22 | 2014-12-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.05 | $41.35 | 3.26% | Signal |
| 2014-11-04 | 2014-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2014-10-20 | 2014-11-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2014-10-20 | 2014-10-22 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2014-10-20 | 2014-10-22 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |