IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for IEI (iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -4.5% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -14.6%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.5%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.0%. The strategy executed 28 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
IEI Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 3.67% | 3.53% | 2.60% | 0.31% | 2.68% | 1.37% | 2.50% | 1.96% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.42 | 1.14 | 1.26 | 0.07 | 1.20 | 0.35 | 0.89 | 0.50 |
| Max Drawdown | -1.39% | -2.50% | -3.23% | -13.88% | -3.76% | -14.60% | -4.53% | -14.60% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 61.0% | 100.0% | 72.1% | 100.0% | 84.0% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-05 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $112.58 | $117.74 | 4.58% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-18 | Open | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-04 | Open | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-06-27 | 2026-05-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $115.00 | $117.05 | 1.78% | Signal |
| 2026-03-03 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.60% | Interest Income |
| 2026-02-05 | 2026-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-17 | 2026-02-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $113.76 | $118.10 | 3.82% | Signal |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-06-27 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.39% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-02 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2025-03-11 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Interest Income |
| 2024-12-17 | 2025-04-17 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.14% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-05 | 2025-03-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $112.58 | $112.95 | 0.33% | Signal |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-12-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $112.58 | $110.53 | -1.83% | Signal |
| 2024-08-02 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-02 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-02 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2024-06-13 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.79% | Interest Income |
| 2024-04-26 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.60% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.08 | 7.87% | Interest Income |
| 2024-05-09 | 2024-06-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $106.83 | $108.33 | 1.40% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-05-09 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.06 | 6.46% | Interest Income |
| 2024-01-22 | 2024-04-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $107.79 | $105.78 | -1.86% | Signal |
| 2023-07-11 | 2024-01-22 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 3.51% | Interest Income |
| 2023-02-23 | 2023-07-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $103.57 | $104.51 | 0.91% | Signal |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-02-23 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.83% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-11-24 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-11-03 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-11-02 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-20 | 2021-11-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $102.00 | $113.98 | 11.75% | Signal |
| 2021-08-03 | 2021-11-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $117.18 | $114.95 | -1.89% | Signal |
| 2021-09-02 | 2021-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-08-03 | 2021-09-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-05-04 | 2021-08-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income |
| 2021-05-04 | 2021-08-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income |
| 2021-04-05 | 2021-05-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-04-05 | 2021-05-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-02-26 | 2021-04-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.11% | Interest Income |
| 2020-12-02 | 2021-04-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-20 | 2021-02-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $102.00 | $115.65 | 13.37% | Signal |
| 2020-12-01 | 2020-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-02-28 | 2020-12-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $113.85 | $117.31 | 3.04% | Signal |
| 2020-01-09 | 2020-02-28 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-20 | 2020-01-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $102.00 | $110.07 | 7.91% | Signal |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-11-20 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-11-20 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-11-20 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2018-01-22 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.73% | Interest Income |
| 2017-11-17 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.03% | Interest Income |
| 2017-07-11 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.68% | Interest Income |
| 2017-08-22 | 2018-01-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $103.71 | $101.72 | -1.92% | Signal |
| 2017-05-08 | 2017-11-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $102.46 | $102.97 | 0.49% | Signal |
| 2017-05-02 | 2017-08-22 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.49% | Interest Income |
| 2014-04-14 | 2017-07-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.81 | $102.64 | 6.03% | Signal |
| 2017-05-02 | 2017-05-08 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2017-04-04 | 2017-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2017-04-04 | 2017-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2017-01-03 | 2017-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2016-11-14 | 2017-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.55% | Interest Income |
| 2014-03-13 | 2017-01-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.45 | $101.14 | 4.86% | Signal |
| 2016-02-24 | 2016-11-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $103.10 | $102.16 | -0.92% | Signal |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-02-24 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-01 | 2016-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-10 | 2016-02-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $100.42 | $102.14 | 1.71% | Signal |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-09-10 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-04 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-07-20 | 2015-08-03 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2014-04-21 | 2015-07-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.40 | $99.46 | 3.17% | Signal |
| 2014-04-02 | 2014-04-21 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2014-04-02 | 2014-04-14 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2014-03-27 | 2014-04-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2014-03-04 | 2014-04-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2013-11-27 | 2014-03-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.79 | $96.17 | -0.64% | Signal |
| 2014-03-04 | 2014-03-13 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2014-02-04 | 2014-03-03 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2014-02-04 | 2014-03-03 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2014-01-03 | 2014-02-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2014-01-03 | 2014-02-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2013-12-10 | 2014-01-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2013-12-03 | 2014-01-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-06 | 2013-12-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.71 | $96.39 | 15.15% | Signal |
| 2013-08-02 | 2013-12-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2013-08-02 | 2013-11-27 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-08 | 2013-08-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-02 | 2013-08-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2013-04-23 | 2013-07-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $98.07 | $94.99 | -3.14% | Signal |
| 2013-06-24 | 2013-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2011-05-31 | 2013-06-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $90.79 | $94.90 | 4.53% | Signal |
| 2013-03-04 | 2013-04-23 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2011-05-09 | 2013-03-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $90.14 | $97.59 | 8.27% | Signal |
| 2011-04-21 | 2011-05-31 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2011-04-04 | 2011-05-09 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2009-12-11 | 2011-04-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $84.20 | $88.85 | 5.52% | Signal |
| 2011-03-02 | 2011-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2011-01-24 | 2011-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2009-10-06 | 2011-01-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.81 | $88.45 | 5.53% | Signal |
| 2009-10-02 | 2009-12-11 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2009-10-02 | 2009-10-06 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2009-09-03 | 2009-10-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2009-07-02 | 2009-10-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-06 | 2009-09-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.71 | $83.27 | -0.53% | Signal |
| 2009-06-02 | 2009-07-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2009-05-14 | 2009-06-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-06 | 2009-05-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.71 | $83.30 | -0.49% | Signal |
| 2009-01-05 | 2009-01-06 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-05 | 2009-01-06 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-05 | 2009-01-06 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-02 | 2009-01-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-02 | 2009-01-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-02 | 2009-01-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |