JCPB
J.P. Morgan Core Plus Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for JCPB (J.P. Morgan Core Plus Bond ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -4.5% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -16.7%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.4%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 1.1%. The strategy executed 3 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
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JCPB Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | Full History | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 4.00% | 4.00% | 2.45% | 0.72% | 2.37% | 1.07% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.06 | 1.06 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.71% | -2.71% | -4.53% | -16.67% | -4.53% | -16.67% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 72.9% | 100.0% | 70.7% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2023-09-01 | 2024-01-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.81% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-02-03 | 2023-09-01 | Completed | 100% | $40.39 | $39.86 | -1.36% | Signal | |
| 2022-01-27 | 2023-02-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.48% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-06-14 | 2022-01-27 | Completed | 100% | $44.17 | $43.70 | -1.10% | Signal | |
| 2021-03-24 | 2021-06-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-05 | 2021-03-24 | Completed | 100% | $43.66 | $43.54 | -0.33% | Signal | |
| 2021-03-03 | 2021-03-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |