QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ (2x Leveraged NASDAQ 100)
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-08-04
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for QLD (ProShares Ultra QQQ (2x Leveraged NASDAQ 100)) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -52.3% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -77.0%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.8%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 26.5%. The strategy executed 40 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
QLD Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 5.95% | 51.60% | 3.36% | 19.46% | 19.71% | 33.73% | 13.78% | 26.50% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.19 | 1.07 | 0.12 | 0.39 | 0.61 | 0.64 | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| Max Drawdown | -23.64% | -25.13% | -32.22% | -63.68% | -41.62% | -63.68% | -52.34% | -77.04% |
| % Time Invested | 79.0% | 100.0% | 61.7% | 100.0% | 70.0% | 100.0% | 66.8% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Subscribe to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-03-23 | 2026-04-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-12-16 | 2026-03-23 | Completed | 100% | $69.02 | $64.02 | -7.28% | Stop | |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-12-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-07-07 | 2025-11-21 | Completed | 100% | $59.07 | $64.68 | 9.45% | Stop | |
| 2025-04-04 | 2025-07-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-24 | 2025-04-04 | Completed | 100% | $48.08 | $38.49 | -19.98% | Stop | |
| 2025-02-28 | 2025-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-16 | 2025-02-28 | Completed | 100% | $47.50 | $50.86 | 7.01% | Stop | |
| 2024-07-25 | 2024-08-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-11-20 | 2024-07-25 | Completed | 100% | $33.73 | $46.21 | 36.94% | Stop | |
| 2023-10-27 | 2023-11-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-09-13 | 2023-10-27 | Completed | 100% | $31.92 | $27.31 | -14.47% | Stop | |
| 2023-08-21 | 2023-09-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-03-24 | 2023-08-21 | Completed | 100% | $22.85 | $29.85 | 30.57% | Stop | |
| 2023-01-20 | 2023-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.82% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-01-20 | Completed | 100% | $19.53 | $18.63 | -4.61% | Stop | |
| 2022-02-23 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-03 | 2022-02-23 | Completed | 100% | $35.40 | $31.89 | -9.98% | Stop | |
| 2022-01-11 | 2022-02-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-10-27 | 2022-01-11 | Completed | 100% | $40.36 | $39.93 | -1.13% | Stop | |
| 2021-10-05 | 2021-10-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-26 | 2021-10-05 | Completed | 100% | $27.55 | $35.10 | 27.36% | Stop | |
| 2021-03-04 | 2021-03-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-11-20 | 2021-03-04 | Completed | 100% | $24.69 | $27.22 | 10.21% | Stop | |
| 2020-10-29 | 2020-11-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-09-30 | 2020-10-29 | Completed | 100% | $22.31 | $21.68 | -2.87% | Stop | |
| 2020-09-08 | 2020-09-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-05 | 2020-09-08 | Completed | 100% | $16.66 | $21.79 | 30.75% | Stop | |
| 2020-04-22 | 2020-06-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-19 | 2020-04-22 | Completed | 100% | $9.51 | $13.19 | 38.56% | Signal | |
| 2020-02-26 | 2020-03-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-08-28 | 2020-02-26 | Completed | 100% | $11.32 | $15.46 | 36.48% | Stop | |
| 2019-08-06 | 2019-08-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-06-21 | 2019-08-06 | Completed | 100% | $12.03 | $11.22 | -6.75% | Stop | |
| 2019-05-30 | 2019-06-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-04-12 | 2019-05-30 | Completed | 100% | $11.84 | $10.59 | -10.58% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-20 | 2019-04-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.93% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-11-20 | Completed | 100% | $10.42 | $8.82 | -15.40% | Stop | |
| 2018-10-11 | 2018-11-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-04-18 | 2018-10-11 | Completed | 100% | $10.06 | $10.47 | 3.99% | Stop | |
| 2018-03-26 | 2018-04-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-03-02 | 2018-03-26 | Completed | 100% | $9.70 | $9.59 | -1.18% | Stop | |
| 2018-02-07 | 2018-03-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-07-25 | 2018-02-07 | Completed | 100% | $4.87 | $9.68 | 98.67% | Stop | |
| 2016-06-23 | 2016-07-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-05-26 | 2016-06-23 | Completed | 100% | $4.53 | $4.44 | -2.14% | Signal | |
| 2016-02-04 | 2016-05-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-02-04 | Completed | 100% | $4.12 | $3.92 | -4.94% | Signal | |
| 2016-01-08 | 2016-02-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-11-24 | 2016-01-08 | Completed | 100% | $4.94 | $4.29 | -13.18% | Stop | |
| 2015-09-30 | 2015-11-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-09-16 | 2015-09-30 | Completed | 100% | $4.37 | $3.94 | -10.08% | Signal | |
| 2015-08-24 | 2015-09-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-11-07 | 2015-08-24 | Completed | 100% | $4.08 | $3.43 | -15.85% | Stop | |
| 2014-10-16 | 2014-11-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-05-07 | 2014-10-16 | Completed | 100% | $2.99 | $3.22 | 7.80% | Stop | |
| 2014-04-14 | 2014-05-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-01-30 | 2014-04-14 | Completed | 100% | $1.79 | $2.84 | 59.12% | Stop | |
| 2012-12-12 | 2013-01-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-11-23 | 2012-12-12 | Completed | 100% | $1.62 | $1.72 | 6.02% | Signal | |
| 2012-10-31 | 2012-11-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-11 | 2012-10-31 | Completed | 100% | $1.58 | $1.68 | 5.98% | Stop | |
| 2012-05-17 | 2012-06-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-02-03 | 2012-05-17 | Completed | 100% | $1.52 | $1.57 | 3.35% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-05 | 2012-02-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-07-06 | 2011-08-05 | Completed | 100% | $1.40 | $1.24 | -11.80% | Stop | |
| 2011-06-13 | 2011-07-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-04-08 | 2011-06-13 | Completed | 100% | $1.38 | $1.24 | -9.95% | Stop | |
| 2011-03-17 | 2011-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-09-17 | 2011-03-17 | Completed | 100% | $0.97 | $1.26 | 28.97% | Stop | |
| 2010-06-30 | 2010-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-06-30 | Completed | 100% | $0.88 | $0.79 | -9.81% | Stop | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-02-24 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 100% | $0.85 | $0.91 | 7.78% | Stop | |
| 2010-02-01 | 2010-02-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-06-15 | 2010-02-01 | Completed | 100% | $0.58 | $0.79 | 36.79% | Stop | |
| 2008-06-13 | 2009-06-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.63% | Interest Income | |