RSP Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for RSP (Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -19.9% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -59.9%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.0%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 10.2%. The strategy executed 49 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
RSP Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 16.21% | 20.32% | 4.07% | 8.40% | 10.41% | 11.87% | 9.96% | 10.25% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.44 | 1.61 | 0.35 | 0.50 | 0.82 | 0.61 | 0.79 | 0.48 |
| Max Drawdown | -7.85% | -7.85% | -14.90% | -21.38% | -15.06% | -39.04% | -19.86% | -59.92% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 91.2% | 100.0% | 94.6% | 100.0% | 92.3% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $187.72 | $208.83 | 11.25% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-07-15 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $182.57 | $208.83 | 14.38% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-05-01 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $166.35 | $208.83 | 25.54% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-10-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.84% | Interest Income |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-07-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.72% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-30 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-02 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-05-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $164.39 | $173.09 | 5.29% | Signal |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.21% | Interest Income |
| 2025-03-06 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.41% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.64% | Interest Income |
| 2023-12-15 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $150.98 | $157.68 | 4.44% | Stop |
| 2023-12-15 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $150.98 | $151.10 | 0.08% | Stop |
| 2023-12-15 | 2025-03-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $150.98 | $171.69 | 13.72% | Signal |
| 2023-10-25 | 2023-12-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.89% | Interest Income |
| 2023-10-24 | 2023-12-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.93% | Interest Income |
| 2023-10-06 | 2023-12-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.15% | Interest Income |
| 2023-07-28 | 2023-10-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $148.19 | $130.89 | -11.67% | Signal |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-10-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $138.01 | $131.31 | -4.85% | Stop |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-10-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $136.16 | $132.58 | -2.63% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-07-28 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.02% | Interest Income |
| 2023-05-05 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income |
| 2023-01-10 | 2023-05-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $137.39 | $135.03 | -1.71% | Signal |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-04 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-03-31 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.68% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-01-10 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.86% | Interest Income |
| 2022-11-29 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-20 | 2022-11-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $124.03 | $136.86 | 10.35% | Signal |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-10-20 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-28 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.24% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-07-08 | 2022-09-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $128.95 | $121.60 | -5.70% | Stop |
| 2022-06-09 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-28 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-06-14 | 2022-07-08 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-01 | 2022-06-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $73.13 | $126.78 | 73.36% | Stop |
| 2022-06-03 | 2022-06-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $138.76 | $137.63 | -0.81% | Signal |
| 2022-05-11 | 2022-06-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2020-09-29 | 2022-05-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $99.06 | $133.04 | 34.30% | Stop |
| 2020-06-30 | 2022-03-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $91.22 | $147.30 | 61.48% | Signal |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-09-29 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.09% | Interest Income |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-06-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.64% | Interest Income |
| 2020-05-05 | 2020-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-31 | 2020-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-05-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.34 | $85.11 | 24.55% | Signal |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-03-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.34 | $77.22 | 12.99% | Signal |
| 2020-03-03 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-03 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2019-01-16 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $84.80 | $87.03 | 2.63% | Stop |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2019-06-18 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $94.16 | $93.17 | -1.05% | Stop |
| 2019-03-26 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $91.42 | $93.17 | 1.91% | Stop |
| 2019-03-04 | 2019-06-18 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.02% | Interest Income |
| 2019-03-04 | 2019-03-26 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2019-01-15 | 2019-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-04 | 2019-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.61% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-21 | 2019-01-16 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2019-01-11 | 2019-01-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $84.09 | $84.15 | 0.07% | Signal |
| 2018-12-18 | 2019-01-11 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income |
| 2016-09-26 | 2018-12-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $70.47 | $79.59 | 12.95% | Stop |
| 2016-07-01 | 2018-12-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.00 | $82.57 | 21.43% | Stop |
| 2018-11-23 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2018-06-12 | 2018-11-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $90.69 | $85.82 | -5.37% | Signal |
| 2018-05-04 | 2018-06-12 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income |
| 2016-04-26 | 2018-05-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $67.57 | $85.36 | 26.31% | Signal |
| 2016-05-19 | 2016-09-26 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.77% | Interest Income |
| 2016-04-04 | 2016-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.70% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-12 | 2016-05-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $57.72 | $65.72 | 13.86% | Signal |
| 2016-04-04 | 2016-04-26 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-02-12 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2016-01-21 | 2016-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income |
| 2016-01-21 | 2016-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income |
| 2015-11-03 | 2016-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income |
| 2015-12-30 | 2016-01-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $65.28 | $58.14 | -10.94% | Stop |
| 2011-08-30 | 2016-01-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $35.24 | $58.14 | 64.96% | Stop |
| 2015-11-03 | 2015-12-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2015-10-13 | 2015-11-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-11-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-17 | 2015-10-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $64.20 | $64.50 | 0.46% | Signal |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-06 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2012-03-20 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.09 | $62.89 | 53.06% | Stop |
| 2012-09-10 | 2015-08-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.67 | $66.99 | 60.75% | Signal |
| 2012-07-03 | 2012-09-10 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.74% | Interest Income |
| 2012-06-29 | 2012-07-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2011-12-28 | 2012-06-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.79 | $39.13 | 6.35% | Signal |
| 2012-01-04 | 2012-03-20 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.08% | Interest Income |
| 2011-12-02 | 2012-01-03 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2011-12-02 | 2011-12-28 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2011-10-05 | 2011-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2011-08-05 | 2011-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2011-08-29 | 2011-10-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $34.67 | $32.37 | -6.65% | Stop |
| 2011-08-08 | 2011-08-30 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2011-08-05 | 2011-08-29 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2010-06-01 | 2011-08-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $30.74 | $33.87 | 10.19% | Stop |
| 2010-10-11 | 2011-08-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $33.60 | $35.56 | 5.83% | Stop |
| 2010-06-01 | 2011-08-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $30.74 | $35.56 | 15.67% | Stop |
| 2010-09-02 | 2010-10-11 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2010-07-27 | 2010-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-07-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $30.74 | $32.06 | 4.30% | Signal |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2009-09-15 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.24 | $31.65 | 12.10% | Stop |
| 2009-07-30 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $25.66 | $31.65 | 23.38% | Stop |
| 2009-05-13 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.89 | $31.65 | 38.28% | Stop |
| 2009-07-02 | 2009-09-15 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2009-07-02 | 2009-07-30 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2009-06-02 | 2009-07-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2009-06-02 | 2009-07-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2009-05-04 | 2009-06-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2009-05-04 | 2009-06-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2009-05-04 | 2009-05-13 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2009-04-02 | 2009-05-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2009-04-02 | 2009-05-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2009-04-02 | 2009-05-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-05 | 2009-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-05 | 2009-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-05 | 2009-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2008-09-03 | 2009-01-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.77% | Interest Income |
| 2008-09-03 | 2009-01-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.77% | Interest Income |
| 2008-09-03 | 2009-01-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.77% | Interest Income |
| 2008-07-16 | 2008-09-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income |
| 2008-06-24 | 2008-09-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income |
| 2008-06-03 | 2008-09-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.49% | Interest Income |
| 2008-06-10 | 2008-07-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $33.22 | $29.24 | -11.98% | Stop |
| 2008-02-01 | 2008-06-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $33.50 | $32.11 | -4.15% | Signal |
| 2008-06-03 | 2008-06-10 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2007-11-27 | 2008-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.57% | Interest Income |
| 2007-08-17 | 2008-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.09% | Interest Income |
| 2008-01-09 | 2008-02-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.56% | Interest Income |
| 2005-04-26 | 2008-01-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.62 | $32.59 | 22.42% | Stop |
| 2007-09-11 | 2007-11-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $35.41 | $34.00 | -3.97% | Signal |
| 2007-08-17 | 2007-09-11 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income |
| 2006-12-08 | 2007-08-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $34.68 | $35.89 | 3.48% | Stop |
| 2006-09-06 | 2007-08-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $31.60 | $35.89 | 13.54% | Stop |
| 2006-10-06 | 2006-12-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.87% | Interest Income |
| 2005-04-26 | 2006-10-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.62 | $32.80 | 23.23% | Signal |
| 2006-06-29 | 2006-09-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.93% | Interest Income |
| 2005-12-30 | 2006-06-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $30.15 | $30.64 | 1.65% | Signal |
| 2005-12-07 | 2005-12-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income |
| 2005-07-15 | 2005-12-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.98 | $30.27 | 4.47% | Signal |
| 2005-05-09 | 2005-07-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.56% | Interest Income |
| 2005-04-26 | 2005-05-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.62 | $26.88 | 1.00% | Signal |
| 2005-04-22 | 2005-04-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2005-04-22 | 2005-04-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2005-04-22 | 2005-04-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |