TJX
TJX Companies Inc
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for TJX (TJX Companies Inc) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -43.6% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -64.6%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12.9%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 17.8%. The strategy executed 51 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
TJX Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 23.66% | 23.66% | 18.97% | 19.30% | 12.98% | 15.96% | 12.94% | 17.80% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.10 | 1.10 | 0.98 | 0.79 | 0.64 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| Max Drawdown | -10.89% | -10.89% | -17.33% | -27.68% | -22.86% | -42.55% | -43.58% | -64.59% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 84.5% | 100.0% | 76.1% | 100.0% | 67.5% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2022-02-18 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-12-14 | 2022-02-18 | Completed | 100% | $68.08 | $61.22 | -10.11% | Stop | |
| 2021-11-09 | 2021-12-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-10-29 | 2021-11-09 | Completed | 100% | $60.66 | $65.39 | 7.75% | Signal | |
| 2021-10-07 | 2021-10-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-09-24 | 2021-10-07 | Completed | 100% | $48.52 | $60.47 | 24.57% | Stop | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-09-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-03-26 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 100% | $48.15 | $47.88 | -0.61% | Stop | |
| 2019-01-14 | 2019-03-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.47% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-17 | 2019-01-14 | Completed | 100% | $40.59 | $42.67 | 5.07% | Signal | |
| 2018-11-21 | 2018-12-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-01-09 | 2018-11-21 | Completed | 100% | $33.67 | $42.46 | 26.04% | Stop | |
| 2017-06-23 | 2018-01-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.62% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-03-09 | 2017-06-23 | Completed | 100% | $34.41 | $30.30 | -12.00% | Stop | |
| 2017-02-14 | 2017-03-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-01-17 | 2017-02-14 | Completed | 100% | $33.30 | $33.73 | 1.25% | Signal | |
| 2016-10-28 | 2017-01-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-12-09 | 2016-10-28 | Completed | 100% | $30.52 | $31.97 | 4.70% | Signal | |
| 2015-11-16 | 2015-12-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-10-09 | 2015-11-16 | Completed | 100% | $25.83 | $27.56 | 6.66% | Stop | |
| 2014-05-21 | 2014-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-01-22 | 2014-05-21 | Completed | 100% | $18.64 | $23.06 | 23.62% | Stop | |
| 2012-12-27 | 2013-01-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-08-12 | 2012-12-27 | Completed | 100% | $8.41 | $17.22 | 104.78% | Signal | |
| 2010-07-21 | 2010-08-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-05-12 | 2010-07-21 | Completed | 100% | $5.76 | $8.55 | 48.27% | Stop | |
| 2008-10-24 | 2009-05-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-10-13 | 2008-10-24 | Completed | 100% | $5.34 | $4.57 | -14.34% | Signal | |
| 2008-09-19 | 2008-10-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-02-04 | 2008-09-19 | Completed | 100% | $6.31 | $6.59 | 4.39% | Stop | |
| 2008-01-10 | 2008-02-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-11-30 | 2008-01-10 | Completed | 100% | $5.61 | $5.17 | -7.94% | Stop | |
| 2007-11-07 | 2007-11-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-07-09 | 2007-11-07 | Completed | 100% | $5.46 | $5.28 | -3.30% | Stop | |
| 2007-04-20 | 2007-07-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-08-15 | 2007-04-20 | Completed | 100% | $5.14 | $5.61 | 9.05% | Signal | |
| 2006-07-18 | 2006-08-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.40% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-01-10 | 2006-07-18 | Completed | 100% | $4.76 | $4.58 | -3.88% | Signal | |
| 2005-05-24 | 2006-01-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.24% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-12-08 | 2005-05-24 | Completed | 100% | $4.63 | $4.40 | -4.94% | Signal | |
| 2004-08-20 | 2004-12-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.55% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-08-02 | 2004-08-20 | Completed | 100% | $4.40 | $4.03 | -8.50% | Signal | |
| 2004-07-09 | 2004-08-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-10-22 | 2004-07-09 | Completed | 100% | $3.88 | $4.19 | 7.92% | Stop | |
| 2003-09-30 | 2003-10-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-08-18 | 2003-09-30 | Completed | 100% | $3.88 | $3.54 | -8.70% | Stop | |
| 2003-07-25 | 2003-08-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-06-27 | 2003-07-25 | Completed | 100% | $3.50 | $3.72 | 6.19% | Signal | |
| 2003-01-27 | 2003-06-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.46% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-12-19 | 2003-01-27 | Completed | 100% | $3.72 | $3.51 | -5.66% | Signal | |
| 2002-07-15 | 2002-12-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.67% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-03-20 | 2002-07-15 | Completed | 100% | $3.67 | $3.46 | -5.73% | Stop | |
| 2002-02-26 | 2002-03-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-10-10 | 2002-02-26 | Completed | 100% | $3.10 | $3.29 | 6.17% | Stop | |
| 2001-09-18 | 2001-10-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-05-07 | 2001-09-18 | Completed | 100% | $2.93 | $2.78 | -5.24% | Stop | |
| 2001-04-12 | 2001-05-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-12-08 | 2001-04-12 | Completed | 100% | $2.58 | $2.61 | 0.97% | Stop | |
| 2000-11-15 | 2000-12-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.39% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-09-28 | 2000-11-15 | Completed | 100% | $1.98 | $2.28 | 14.88% | Stop | |
| 1999-09-24 | 2000-09-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.06 | 5.82% | Interest Income | |
| 1999-09-01 | 1999-09-24 | Completed | 100% | $2.66 | $2.51 | -5.63% | Signal | |
| 1999-08-10 | 1999-09-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 1999-06-01 | 1999-08-10 | Completed | 100% | $2.74 | $2.71 | -1.18% | Stop | |
| 1999-05-07 | 1999-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.29% | Interest Income | |
| 1998-12-24 | 1999-05-07 | Completed | 100% | $2.53 | $2.78 | 9.96% | Stop | |
| 1998-10-14 | 1998-12-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.86% | Interest Income | |
| 1998-09-24 | 1998-10-14 | Completed | 100% | $1.59 | $1.82 | 14.23% | Signal | |
| 1998-09-01 | 1998-09-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 1998-08-19 | 1998-09-01 | Completed | 100% | $2.37 | $2.09 | -12.01% | Stop | |
| 1998-07-28 | 1998-08-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income | |
| 1998-01-15 | 1998-07-28 | Completed | 100% | $1.52 | $2.30 | 51.53% | Stop | |
| 1997-12-22 | 1998-01-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 1997-11-19 | 1997-12-22 | Completed | 100% | $1.59 | $1.47 | -8.04% | Stop | |
| 1997-10-28 | 1997-11-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 1997-02-21 | 1997-10-28 | Completed | 100% | $0.92 | $1.18 | 27.24% | Stop | |
| 1997-01-29 | 1997-02-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 1996-08-05 | 1997-01-29 | Completed | 100% | $0.70 | $0.90 | 28.46% | Stop | |
| 1996-07-12 | 1996-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 1995-10-20 | 1996-07-12 | Completed | 100% | $0.33 | $0.70 | 109.83% | Stop | |
| 1995-09-15 | 1995-10-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.53% | Interest Income | |
| 1995-08-02 | 1995-09-15 | Completed | 100% | $0.32 | $0.27 | -13.80% | Stop | |
| 1994-02-17 | 1995-08-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.07 | 7.43% | Interest Income | |
| 1994-01-31 | 1994-02-17 | Completed | 100% | $0.59 | $0.57 | -3.10% | Stop | |
| 1993-12-28 | 1994-01-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.29% | Interest Income | |
| 1993-11-17 | 1993-12-28 | Completed | 100% | $0.65 | $0.59 | -10.36% | Signal | |
| 1993-08-30 | 1993-11-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.68% | Interest Income | |
| 1993-07-30 | 1993-08-30 | Completed | 100% | $0.56 | $0.58 | 3.15% | Signal | |
| 1993-07-08 | 1993-07-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 1993-05-19 | 1993-07-08 | Completed | 100% | $0.67 | $0.60 | -9.31% | Stop | |
| 1993-04-27 | 1993-05-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income | |
| 1992-05-04 | 1993-04-27 | Completed | 100% | $0.32 | $0.57 | 77.43% | Stop | |
| 1992-04-09 | 1992-05-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 1992-03-02 | 1992-04-09 | Completed | 100% | $0.37 | $0.34 | -7.58% | Stop | |
| 1991-10-23 | 1992-03-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1991-10-01 | 1991-10-23 | Completed | 100% | $0.32 | $0.29 | -11.49% | Stop | |
| 1991-09-09 | 1991-10-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 1991-05-23 | 1991-09-09 | Completed | 100% | $0.36 | $0.35 | -2.22% | Stop | |
| 1991-05-01 | 1991-05-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Interest Income | |
| 1991-03-07 | 1991-05-01 | Completed | 100% | $0.31 | $0.33 | 8.75% | Stop | |
| 1990-07-17 | 1991-03-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 4.51% | Interest Income | |
| 1990-07-13 | 1990-07-17 | Completed | 100% | $0.31 | $0.29 | -5.39% | Stop | |
| 1989-09-05 | 1990-07-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.07 | 6.74% | Interest Income | |