TLH
iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for TLH (iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF) using the Excess Return SMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -15.9% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -41.1%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.9%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 1.7%. The strategy executed 6 total trades.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA Active
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
TLH Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 4.00% | 2.12% | 2.54% | -5.05% | 3.51% | -1.19% | 3.93% | 1.69% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.12 | 0.27 | 0.83 | -0.41 | 0.52 | -0.11 | 0.49 | 0.16 |
| Max Drawdown | -3.82% | -6.50% | -6.57% | -35.41% | -15.86% | -41.14% | -15.86% | -41.14% |
| % Time Invested | 19.1% | 100.0% | 10.9% | 100.0% | 41.7% | 100.0% | 60.9% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-07-03 | 2025-08-07 | Completed | 100% | $96.12 | $97.51 | 1.40% | Signal | |
| 2024-10-22 | 2025-07-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-10-22 | Completed | 100% | $101.74 | $96.79 | -4.92% | Stop | |
| 2021-08-23 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.11 | 10.85% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-22 | 2021-08-23 | Completed | 100% | $116.87 | $127.86 | 9.35% | Signal | |
| 2021-02-26 | 2021-03-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-20 | 2021-02-26 | Completed | 100% | $101.11 | $120.25 | 18.87% | Stop | |
| 2017-07-31 | 2018-11-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-10-30 | 2017-07-31 | Completed | 100% | $97.05 | $104.43 | 7.54% | Signal | |
| 2013-10-21 | 2014-10-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-01-06 | 2013-10-21 | Completed | 100% | $72.24 | $89.19 | 23.40% | Signal | |
| 2009-01-02 | 2009-01-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |