VBR
Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for VBR (Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -24.0% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -62.0%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.0%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 9.0%. The strategy executed 59 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
VBR Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 23.07% | 23.13% | 4.79% | 9.85% | 6.32% | 10.63% | 6.97% | 9.03% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.51 | 1.41 | 0.34 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.37 |
| Max Drawdown | -8.85% | -8.85% | -17.86% | -24.19% | -23.99% | -45.28% | -23.99% | -62.01% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 91.5% | 100.0% | 92.1% | 100.0% | 89.6% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-05-21 | 2025-10-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.66% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-10 | 2025-07-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.56% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-01 | 2025-05-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $176.26 | $186.67 | 5.85% | Signal | |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-04 | 2025-04-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-01 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $181.55 | $168.47 | -7.25% | Stop | |
| 2024-03-27 | 2025-04-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $179.59 | $167.54 | -6.75% | Stop | |
| 2025-03-10 | 2025-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-01-10 | 2025-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $167.67 | $183.47 | 9.37% | Stop | |
| 2023-12-13 | 2025-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $161.23 | $183.47 | 13.74% | Stop | |
| 2023-05-05 | 2024-03-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 4.86% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-10-26 | 2024-01-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-07-10 | 2023-12-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.38% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-08-01 | 2023-10-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $163.05 | $141.95 | -12.99% | Stop | |
| 2023-04-28 | 2023-08-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-12 | 2023-07-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $148.81 | $154.20 | 3.57% | Signal | |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-05-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $148.67 | $143.00 | -3.86% | Stop | |
| 2023-04-05 | 2023-04-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $144.78 | $144.97 | 0.09% | Signal | |
| 2023-03-20 | 2023-04-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-03-14 | 2023-04-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-11-16 | 2023-04-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.71% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-11-01 | 2023-03-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $149.55 | $142.00 | -5.10% | Stop | |
| 2022-11-01 | 2023-03-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $149.55 | $147.11 | -1.68% | Stop | |
| 2022-10-19 | 2022-11-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $140.24 | $152.97 | 9.03% | Signal | |
| 2022-05-10 | 2022-11-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-28 | 2022-11-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-27 | 2022-10-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-06-07 | 2022-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $153.57 | $134.11 | -12.72% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-13 | 2022-06-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-02-10 | 2022-05-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $141.01 | $145.02 | 2.79% | Stop | |
| 2020-10-26 | 2022-05-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $106.17 | $147.36 | 38.72% | Stop | |
| 2021-10-21 | 2022-02-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $160.95 | $155.88 | -3.20% | Signal | |
| 2021-09-23 | 2021-10-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-08 | 2021-09-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $92.27 | $152.99 | 65.74% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2021-02-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-03 | 2020-10-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-25 | 2020-07-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-23 | 2020-04-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.72 | $73.21 | 6.48% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-23 | 2020-03-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.72 | $73.98 | 7.59% | Signal | |
| 2020-02-28 | 2020-03-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-02-28 | 2020-03-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-02-13 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $119.88 | $104.72 | -12.69% | Signal | |
| 2019-11-13 | 2020-02-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $115.60 | $102.82 | -11.09% | Stop | |
| 2019-07-17 | 2020-02-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $113.03 | $102.82 | -9.08% | Stop | |
| 2019-07-17 | 2020-02-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-07-24 | 2019-11-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.58% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-03-28 | 2019-07-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $109.90 | $112.77 | 2.56% | Signal | |
| 2019-01-11 | 2019-07-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $103.61 | $113.03 | 9.04% | Signal | |
| 2018-12-21 | 2019-07-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-10-25 | 2019-03-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.99% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-18 | 2019-01-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-16 | 2018-12-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $109.16 | $97.00 | -11.19% | Stop | |
| 2016-11-15 | 2018-12-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $94.15 | $100.62 | 6.81% | Stop | |
| 2018-10-25 | 2018-11-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-06-07 | 2018-10-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $117.10 | $105.70 | -9.78% | Stop | |
| 2016-07-11 | 2018-10-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.12 | $105.70 | 21.27% | Stop | |
| 2018-04-26 | 2018-06-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-07-17 | 2018-04-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $102.90 | $110.59 | 7.41% | Signal | |
| 2017-06-02 | 2017-07-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-04-27 | 2017-06-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $85.06 | $101.38 | 19.12% | Signal | |
| 2016-04-21 | 2016-11-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-21 | 2016-07-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-01-13 | 2016-04-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-04 | 2016-04-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $73.34 | $84.55 | 15.24% | Signal | |
| 2016-01-12 | 2016-02-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-01-04 | 2016-01-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $78.57 | $74.56 | -5.14% | Signal | |
| 2012-08-23 | 2016-01-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $51.97 | $74.94 | 44.14% | Stop | |
| 2015-08-13 | 2016-01-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-09-17 | 2015-10-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $81.47 | $82.72 | 1.48% | Signal | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-03-21 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.55 | $79.35 | 50.93% | Stop | |
| 2014-12-29 | 2015-08-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $84.47 | $83.82 | -0.81% | Signal | |
| 2014-10-23 | 2014-12-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-09-05 | 2014-10-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.53 | $77.80 | 48.02% | Signal | |
| 2012-06-27 | 2012-09-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-08-01 | 2012-08-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-10-27 | 2012-08-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.09 | $50.79 | 7.80% | Signal | |
| 2011-12-29 | 2012-06-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.57 | $48.58 | 4.27% | Signal | |
| 2011-10-04 | 2012-03-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-07-29 | 2011-12-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-10-05 | 2011-10-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-30 | 2011-10-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.72 | $40.58 | -9.32% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-29 | 2011-10-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.73 | $38.02 | -13.11% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-08 | 2011-08-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-05 | 2011-08-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2011-08-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.62 | $42.73 | 2.61% | Stop | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2011-08-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.62 | $45.45 | 9.14% | Stop | |
| 2010-10-19 | 2011-07-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.04 | $48.75 | 10.65% | Signal | |
| 2010-08-02 | 2010-10-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-08-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.62 | $41.99 | 0.82% | Signal | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-02-23 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.75 | $42.27 | 6.28% | Stop | |
| 2009-08-13 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $35.42 | $42.27 | 19.28% | Stop | |
| 2009-05-26 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.72 | $42.27 | 47.09% | Stop | |
| 2009-11-02 | 2010-02-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-09-15 | 2009-11-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $37.18 | $35.28 | -5.15% | Stop | |
| 2008-04-11 | 2009-09-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.97% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-10-12 | 2009-08-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-08-12 | 2009-05-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-07-25 | 2008-08-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.71 | $43.21 | 6.09% | Signal | |
| 2008-07-02 | 2008-07-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-06-02 | 2008-07-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.44 | $39.54 | -11.08% | Stop | |
| 2007-08-07 | 2008-06-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-01-31 | 2008-04-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.73 | $41.73 | 2.39% | Signal | |
| 2008-01-08 | 2008-01-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-09-11 | 2008-01-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.39 | $41.48 | -8.66% | Stop | |
| 2007-08-29 | 2007-10-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.35 | $48.37 | 6.59% | Signal | |
| 2007-08-17 | 2007-09-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-08-07 | 2007-08-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-01-25 | 2007-08-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.60 | $46.46 | 11.63% | Stop | |
| 2006-11-29 | 2007-08-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.46 | $45.10 | -2.97% | Stop | |
| 2006-09-06 | 2007-08-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.13 | $45.10 | 4.52% | Stop | |
| 2006-10-27 | 2006-11-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.43% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-01-25 | 2006-10-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.60 | $45.84 | 10.14% | Signal | |
| 2006-07-10 | 2006-09-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.81% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-01-25 | 2006-07-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.60 | $42.31 | 1.65% | Signal | |
| 2006-01-23 | 2006-01-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-01-23 | 2006-01-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-01-23 | 2006-01-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |