VIG Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for VIG (Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -18.7% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -43.8%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.4%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 10.6%. The strategy executed 44 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
VIG Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 17.42% | 20.87% | 8.65% | 10.71% | 12.16% | 13.27% | 11.43% | 10.63% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.72 | 1.91 | 0.81 | 0.72 | 1.02 | 0.78 | 0.93 | 0.58 |
| Max Drawdown | -7.91% | -7.91% | -12.14% | -20.39% | -14.75% | -31.72% | -18.69% | -43.76% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 94.9% | 100.0% | 96.5% | 100.0% | 93.8% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-23 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $213.97 | $234.65 | 9.66% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-05-01 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $187.86 | $234.65 | 24.91% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-18 | Open | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-05-01 | 2026-05-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $187.86 | $229.42 | 22.12% | Signal |
| 2025-06-10 | 2025-09-23 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.58% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-06-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $185.82 | $197.03 | 6.03% | Signal |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.21% | Interest Income |
| 2025-03-13 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.64% | Interest Income |
| 2023-11-08 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $151.28 | $178.39 | 17.92% | Stop |
| 2023-03-27 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $142.27 | $169.84 | 19.38% | Stop |
| 2024-01-09 | 2025-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $162.72 | $187.96 | 15.51% | Signal |
| 2023-10-27 | 2024-01-09 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.19% | Interest Income |
| 2023-09-28 | 2023-11-08 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.59% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-15 | 2023-10-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $151.06 | $145.07 | -3.97% | Signal |
| 2023-07-19 | 2023-09-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $156.59 | $148.63 | -5.08% | Stop |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-07-19 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.84% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-06-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income |
| 2023-05-01 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.39% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2023-01-03 | 2023-05-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $143.85 | $149.20 | 3.71% | Signal |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-03-27 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.19% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-01-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.68% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-01 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2022-11-07 | 2022-12-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $137.88 | $149.20 | 8.21% | Signal |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-14 | 2022-11-07 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2022-06-14 | 2022-10-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $132.30 | $131.02 | -0.96% | Stop |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-06-09 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-29 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-05-20 | 2022-06-14 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2022-06-03 | 2022-06-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $142.18 | $140.79 | -0.97% | Signal |
| 2022-05-11 | 2022-06-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-01 | 2022-05-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $89.06 | $135.78 | 52.47% | Stop |
| 2020-09-15 | 2022-05-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $117.38 | $138.76 | 18.22% | Stop |
| 2020-06-03 | 2022-03-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $107.09 | $152.54 | 42.44% | Signal |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-09-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.11% | Interest Income |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-06-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-06-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.76 | $105.72 | 26.22% | Signal |
| 2020-04-06 | 2020-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-04-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.76 | $93.37 | 11.48% | Signal |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-03 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-03 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2019-01-18 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $89.47 | $101.08 | 12.98% | Stop |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2019-05-21 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $98.08 | $102.99 | 5.01% | Stop |
| 2019-03-28 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $95.48 | $102.99 | 7.87% | Stop |
| 2019-03-25 | 2019-05-21 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.56% | Interest Income |
| 2019-03-04 | 2019-03-28 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income |
| 2019-01-16 | 2019-03-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.94 | $94.36 | 7.30% | Signal |
| 2018-12-21 | 2019-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.47% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-26 | 2019-01-18 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-21 | 2019-01-16 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-17 | 2018-12-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.82 | $80.88 | 30.85% | Stop |
| 2018-07-24 | 2018-12-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $91.18 | $84.26 | -7.59% | Stop |
| 2016-04-12 | 2018-12-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.73 | $84.26 | 26.27% | Stop |
| 2018-05-15 | 2018-07-24 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2017-01-11 | 2018-05-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.07 | $87.33 | 21.17% | Signal |
| 2016-11-23 | 2017-01-11 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2016-04-13 | 2016-11-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $67.45 | $70.65 | 4.75% | Signal |
| 2016-04-04 | 2016-04-13 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2016-04-04 | 2016-04-12 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2016-03-07 | 2016-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-11-25 | 2016-03-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $64.75 | $64.59 | -0.25% | Signal |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2016-01-08 | 2016-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2015-11-25 | 2016-01-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $64.75 | $61.69 | -4.72% | Stop |
| 2015-11-03 | 2015-11-25 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2015-11-03 | 2015-11-25 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-28 | 2015-11-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-11-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-17 | 2015-09-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.82 | $59.96 | -3.00% | Signal |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-04 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2012-02-29 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.63 | $61.34 | 40.61% | Stop |
| 2011-08-31 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.03 | $61.34 | 57.18% | Stop |
| 2015-07-21 | 2015-08-03 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2014-11-17 | 2015-07-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $63.85 | $65.48 | 2.55% | Signal |
| 2014-11-04 | 2014-11-17 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2014-10-24 | 2014-11-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2012-08-30 | 2014-10-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.74 | $61.26 | 36.93% | Signal |
| 2012-07-03 | 2012-08-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.66% | Interest Income |
| 2011-12-13 | 2012-07-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.67 | $43.14 | 6.06% | Signal |
| 2012-01-04 | 2012-02-29 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.09% | Interest Income |
| 2011-12-02 | 2012-01-03 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2011-12-02 | 2011-12-13 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2011-10-28 | 2011-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2011-08-08 | 2011-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2011-08-30 | 2011-10-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.52 | $40.84 | 6.02% | Signal |
| 2011-08-09 | 2011-08-31 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2011-08-08 | 2011-08-30 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2010-06-01 | 2011-08-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $33.41 | $36.32 | 8.72% | Stop |
| 2010-11-11 | 2011-08-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $37.17 | $37.12 | -0.14% | Stop |
| 2010-10-05 | 2011-08-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $35.96 | $37.12 | 3.24% | Stop |
| 2010-11-02 | 2010-11-11 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2010-10-20 | 2010-11-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-10-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $33.41 | $36.46 | 9.13% | Signal |
| 2010-09-02 | 2010-10-05 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2010-07-19 | 2010-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-07-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $33.41 | $33.20 | -0.63% | Signal |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2009-03-19 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $25.01 | $34.65 | 38.55% | Stop |
| 2009-03-19 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $25.01 | $34.65 | 38.55% | Stop |
| 2009-03-19 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $25.01 | $34.65 | 38.55% | Stop |
| 2009-01-05 | 2009-03-19 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-05 | 2009-03-19 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-05 | 2009-03-19 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income |
| 2008-09-03 | 2009-01-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.77% | Interest Income |
| 2008-09-03 | 2009-01-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.77% | Interest Income |
| 2008-09-03 | 2009-01-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.77% | Interest Income |
| 2008-08-18 | 2008-09-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2008-07-28 | 2008-09-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income |
| 2008-06-03 | 2008-09-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.49% | Interest Income |
| 2008-04-28 | 2008-08-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $37.85 | $36.56 | -3.41% | Signal |
| 2008-06-05 | 2008-07-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $37.56 | $35.23 | -6.20% | Signal |
| 2008-06-03 | 2008-06-05 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2008-04-24 | 2008-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2008-04-24 | 2008-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2008-04-24 | 2008-04-28 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |