VTEB
Vanguard Tax-exempt Bond Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for VTEB (Vanguard Tax-exempt Bond Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -9.4% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -17.0%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.1%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.0%. The strategy executed 23 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
VTEB Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 5.88% | 5.81% | 0.92% | 0.51% | 1.91% | 1.88% | 2.13% | 2.01% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.11 | 2.03 | 0.34 | 0.13 | 0.61 | 0.35 | 0.64 | 0.36 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.71% | -2.71% | -9.42% | -12.62% | -9.43% | -17.00% | -9.43% | -17.00% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 96.1% | 100.0% | 86.7% | 100.0% | 97.1% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-04-29 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-01 | 2026-04-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.27 | $49.93 | 5.58% | Signal | |
| 2024-12-17 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.52% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-10-02 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.80% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-09-11 | 2024-12-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.00 | $47.93 | -0.20% | Signal | |
| 2024-09-11 | 2024-10-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-02 | 2024-09-11 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.63% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-04-10 | 2024-09-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.33 | $48.00 | 3.56% | Signal | |
| 2024-05-15 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.29% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-01-18 | 2024-05-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.69 | $46.90 | 0.40% | Signal | |
| 2023-09-14 | 2024-04-10 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 3.94% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-01-18 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 4.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-11-25 | 2023-09-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.17 | $44.81 | 1.40% | Signal | |
| 2023-05-23 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-11-25 | 2023-05-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.17 | $44.86 | 1.51% | Signal | |
| 2022-10-24 | 2022-11-25 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-24 | 2022-11-25 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-11-25 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.46% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-10-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.89 | $42.53 | -5.30% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-10-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.89 | $42.53 | -5.30% | Stop | |
| 2022-09-26 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.40% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-08-04 | 2022-09-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.36 | $42.98 | -5.30% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-16 | 2022-08-04 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-03 | 2022-05-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.14 | $43.53 | -1.43% | Signal | |
| 2022-04-08 | 2022-05-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-06 | 2022-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.30 | $44.97 | 1.47% | Stop | |
| 2022-02-10 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-06 | 2022-02-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.30 | $46.98 | 6.00% | Signal | |
| 2021-11-03 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-06-17 | 2021-11-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.06 | $47.79 | -0.60% | Signal | |
| 2021-05-25 | 2021-06-17 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-05-21 | 2021-05-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.61 | $47.83 | 4.81% | Signal | |
| 2020-04-24 | 2020-05-21 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-06 | 2020-04-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.30 | $44.75 | 0.97% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-16 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.32 | $44.08 | 6.64% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-16 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.32 | $44.08 | 6.64% | Stop | |
| 2018-05-07 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.22 | $44.08 | 6.88% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-11-16 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-11-16 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-10-17 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-10-04 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-05-07 | 2018-10-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.22 | $41.11 | -0.31% | Signal | |
| 2018-01-10 | 2018-10-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.52 | $41.26 | -0.68% | Signal | |
| 2018-03-22 | 2018-05-07 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.42% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-01-19 | 2018-05-07 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.63% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-08-18 | 2018-03-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.54 | $41.12 | -1.07% | Signal | |
| 2017-08-18 | 2018-01-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.54 | $41.56 | -0.01% | Signal | |
| 2017-08-22 | 2018-01-10 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.67% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-08-18 | 2017-08-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.54 | $41.54 | -0.05% | Signal | |
| 2017-08-16 | 2017-08-18 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-08-16 | 2017-08-18 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-08-16 | 2017-08-18 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |