VTEB
Vanguard Tax-exempt Bond Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for VTEB (Vanguard Tax-exempt Bond Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Trading context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -8.1% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -17.0%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.1%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.1%. The strategy executed 72 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Available in Investing Mode
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
Available in Investing Mode
VTEB Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 4.66% | 5.81% | 1.18% | 0.51% | 2.00% | 1.88% | 2.14% | 2.11% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.09 | 2.03 | 0.53 | 0.13 | 0.69 | 0.35 | 0.74 | 0.40 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.30% | -2.71% | -4.78% | -12.62% | -8.14% | -17.00% | -8.14% | -17.00% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 78.2% | 100.0% | 83.7% | 100.0% | 84.3% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 6.0 | 0.0 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-04-24 | 2026-05-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.05 | $49.44 | -1.26% | Signal | |
| 2026-03-26 | 2026-05-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.51% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-01 | 2026-04-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.27 | $49.93 | 5.58% | Signal | |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-04-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income | |
| 2026-01-20 | 2026-03-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.69 | $49.17 | -1.09% | Signal | |
| 2026-01-08 | 2026-03-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.70 | $49.68 | -0.10% | Signal | |
| 2025-12-18 | 2026-01-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-11-25 | 2026-01-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.42% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-01 | 2025-12-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.27 | $49.39 | 4.43% | Signal | |
| 2025-08-20 | 2025-11-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.38 | $49.33 | 4.08% | Signal | |
| 2025-07-24 | 2025-08-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-07-03 | 2025-07-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.28 | $46.92 | -0.83% | Signal | |
| 2025-06-06 | 2025-07-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-01 | 2025-06-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.27 | $46.94 | -0.75% | Signal | |
| 2025-03-27 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.40% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-19 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.51% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-12-20 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.49% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-04 | 2025-03-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.29 | $47.13 | -2.44% | Signal | |
| 2025-02-11 | 2025-03-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.87 | $47.61 | -0.60% | Signal | |
| 2025-01-13 | 2025-03-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.57% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-12-31 | 2025-02-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.46% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-12-18 | 2025-01-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.78 | $47.26 | -1.13% | Signal | |
| 2024-12-02 | 2024-12-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.22 | $47.76 | -1.02% | Signal | |
| 2024-09-10 | 2024-12-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.89 | $47.33 | -1.21% | Signal | |
| 2024-10-25 | 2024-12-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.66% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-10-17 | 2024-12-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.56% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-07-11 | 2024-10-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.23 | $47.58 | 0.69% | Signal | |
| 2024-06-27 | 2024-10-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.84 | $47.86 | 2.13% | Signal | |
| 2024-05-15 | 2024-09-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.68% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-02-16 | 2024-07-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-06-04 | 2024-06-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-05-22 | 2024-06-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.54 | $46.46 | -0.23% | Signal | |
| 2024-03-15 | 2024-05-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.99% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-01-18 | 2024-05-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.69 | $46.90 | 0.40% | Signal | |
| 2024-03-12 | 2024-03-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.03 | $46.91 | -0.29% | Signal | |
| 2024-01-29 | 2024-03-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.63% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-11-29 | 2024-02-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.72 | $46.79 | 2.31% | Signal | |
| 2023-11-15 | 2024-01-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.88 | $46.61 | 3.80% | Signal | |
| 2023-05-22 | 2024-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 3.57% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-08-10 | 2023-11-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.67% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-08-01 | 2023-11-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.63% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-07-24 | 2023-08-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.88 | $45.32 | -1.26% | Signal | |
| 2023-06-28 | 2023-08-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.58 | $45.46 | -0.30% | Signal | |
| 2023-05-23 | 2023-07-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.86% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-05-05 | 2023-06-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.75% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-06 | 2023-05-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.90 | $44.86 | -2.32% | Signal | |
| 2022-11-25 | 2023-05-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.17 | $44.90 | 1.61% | Signal | |
| 2023-03-29 | 2023-05-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.31 | $45.57 | 0.54% | Signal | |
| 2023-03-08 | 2023-04-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.39% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-02-24 | 2023-03-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.43% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-11-25 | 2023-03-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.17 | $44.43 | 0.55% | Signal | |
| 2022-11-22 | 2023-02-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.98 | $44.38 | 0.86% | Signal | |
| 2022-10-24 | 2022-11-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.38% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-13 | 2022-11-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.78% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-08-30 | 2022-11-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.86% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-10-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.89 | $42.53 | -5.30% | Stop | |
| 2022-08-12 | 2022-09-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.18 | $43.81 | -3.09% | Signal | |
| 2022-07-27 | 2022-08-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.93 | $44.16 | -1.77% | Signal | |
| 2022-07-21 | 2022-08-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-07-05 | 2022-07-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-07-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.89 | $44.70 | -0.47% | Signal | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-07-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.89 | $44.42 | -1.10% | Signal | |
| 2022-01-25 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-01-13 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-11-03 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-12-02 | 2022-01-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.15 | $47.42 | -1.58% | Signal | |
| 2021-11-15 | 2022-01-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.02 | $47.80 | -0.50% | Signal | |
| 2021-09-09 | 2021-12-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-08-20 | 2021-11-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-06-17 | 2021-11-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.06 | $47.79 | -0.60% | Signal | |
| 2021-04-15 | 2021-09-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.73 | $48.17 | 0.86% | Signal | |
| 2021-04-08 | 2021-08-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.45 | $48.20 | 1.54% | Signal | |
| 2021-05-25 | 2021-06-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-05-26 | 2021-05-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.84 | $47.83 | 4.28% | Signal | |
| 2021-03-09 | 2021-04-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-02 | 2021-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-11-20 | 2021-03-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.22 | $47.22 | -0.04% | Signal | |
| 2020-11-13 | 2021-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.84 | $47.04 | 0.38% | Signal | |
| 2020-09-24 | 2020-11-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-09-08 | 2020-11-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-05-01 | 2020-09-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.63 | $46.73 | 4.64% | Signal | |
| 2020-06-09 | 2020-09-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.96 | $46.70 | 1.57% | Signal | |
| 2020-05-15 | 2020-06-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-05-01 | 2020-05-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-16 | 2020-05-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.36 | $45.24 | -0.32% | Signal | |
| 2020-04-06 | 2020-05-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.30 | $44.63 | 0.71% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-11-29 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.18 | $44.08 | -2.47% | Stop | |
| 2019-11-29 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.18 | $44.08 | -2.47% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-16 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.32 | $44.08 | 6.64% | Stop | |
| 2019-11-05 | 2019-11-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-10-09 | 2019-11-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-10-17 | 2019-11-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.05 | $45.00 | -0.16% | Signal | |
| 2019-09-19 | 2019-10-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-16 | 2019-10-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.32 | $45.30 | 9.59% | Signal | |
| 2018-11-16 | 2019-09-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.32 | $44.84 | 8.47% | Signal | |
| 2018-10-16 | 2018-11-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-09-10 | 2018-11-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.44% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-08-30 | 2018-11-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.49% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-05-07 | 2018-10-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.22 | $41.10 | -0.35% | Signal | |
| 2018-09-06 | 2018-09-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.70 | $41.55 | -0.40% | Signal | |
| 2018-08-13 | 2018-09-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-05-07 | 2018-08-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.22 | $41.74 | 1.20% | Signal | |
| 2018-05-23 | 2018-08-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.28 | $41.65 | 0.85% | Signal | |
| 2018-04-26 | 2018-05-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-01-16 | 2018-05-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.51% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-10-19 | 2018-05-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.81% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-04-09 | 2018-04-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.12 | $40.94 | -0.48% | Signal | |
| 2018-01-05 | 2018-04-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.40% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-03-23 | 2018-01-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.19 | $41.54 | 3.30% | Signal | |
| 2018-01-02 | 2018-01-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.74 | $41.67 | -0.22% | Signal | |
| 2017-11-20 | 2018-01-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-11-01 | 2017-11-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.58 | $41.63 | 0.07% | Signal | |
| 2017-10-04 | 2017-11-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-04-11 | 2017-10-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.52 | $41.77 | 3.03% | Signal | |
| 2017-08-03 | 2017-10-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.42 | $41.52 | 0.19% | Signal | |
| 2017-07-12 | 2017-08-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-04-13 | 2017-07-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.60 | $41.07 | 1.09% | Signal | |
| 2017-03-22 | 2017-04-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-03-20 | 2017-04-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-11-14 | 2017-03-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-03-10 | 2017-03-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.94 | $40.14 | 0.43% | Signal | |
| 2017-01-25 | 2017-03-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.00 | $40.01 | -0.02% | Signal | |
| 2017-02-15 | 2017-03-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-01-03 | 2017-02-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.81 | $39.97 | 0.37% | Signal | |
| 2016-09-21 | 2017-01-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-09-19 | 2017-01-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-03-08 | 2016-11-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.00 | $39.95 | -0.16% | Signal | |
| 2016-04-19 | 2016-09-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.58 | $41.15 | 1.37% | Signal | |
| 2016-08-26 | 2016-09-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.47 | $41.17 | -0.76% | Signal | |
| 2016-08-04 | 2016-08-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-04-06 | 2016-08-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.44 | $41.32 | 2.13% | Signal | |
| 2016-03-28 | 2016-04-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-03-11 | 2016-04-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-03-08 | 2016-03-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.00 | $40.16 | 0.34% | Signal | |
| 2016-03-08 | 2016-03-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.00 | $40.03 | 0.03% | Signal | |
| 2016-03-04 | 2016-03-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-03-04 | 2016-03-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-03-04 | 2016-03-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |