XLC
The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for XLC (The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -25.1% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -46.6%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.0%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 12.8%. The strategy executed 17 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
XLC Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | Full History | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 3.02% | -0.91% | 8.89% | 5.93% | 15.00% | 12.79% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.24 | -0.06 | 0.58 | 0.28 | 0.89 | 0.59 |
| Max Drawdown | -10.57% | -11.73% | -25.08% | -46.65% | -25.08% | -46.65% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 89.8% | 100.0% | 91.6% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-07-09 | 2026-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $105.51 | $113.96 | 7.95% | Signal | |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-07-09 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.58% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-02 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-05-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $93.08 | $95.12 | 2.14% | Signal | |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.64% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.64% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.64% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-05 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $56.39 | $83.21 | 47.49% | Stop | |
| 2023-01-10 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.20 | $83.21 | 72.56% | Stop | |
| 2023-01-10 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.20 | $83.21 | 72.56% | Stop | |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-04-05 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-03-14 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-10 | 2023-03-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.20 | $51.18 | 6.14% | Stop | |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-01-10 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.86% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-01-10 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.86% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-01-10 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.86% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-28 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-28 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-28 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-26 | 2022-10-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.57 | $46.14 | -5.05% | Stop | |
| 2022-10-26 | 2022-10-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.57 | $46.14 | -5.05% | Stop | |
| 2022-10-26 | 2022-10-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.57 | $46.14 | -5.05% | Stop | |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-10-26 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-10-26 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-10-26 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-08-19 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-20 | 2022-08-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $55.99 | $55.68 | -0.61% | Signal | |
| 2022-04-28 | 2022-05-20 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-16 | 2022-04-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.13 | $58.14 | -12.13% | Stop | |
| 2022-02-18 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-12-27 | 2022-02-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $74.70 | $64.97 | -13.07% | Stop | |
| 2022-01-25 | 2022-02-16 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-15 | 2022-01-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.19 | $68.21 | 35.84% | Stop | |
| 2021-12-01 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-12-02 | 2021-12-27 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-08-26 | 2021-12-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $58.65 | $70.32 | 19.84% | Stop | |
| 2020-06-22 | 2021-12-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.22 | $72.74 | 39.22% | Signal | |
| 2020-07-31 | 2020-08-26 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-15 | 2020-07-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.19 | $55.05 | 9.64% | Signal | |
| 2020-06-11 | 2020-06-22 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-11 | 2020-06-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-11 | 2020-06-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income | |