XLI
The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for XLI (The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -26.5% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -62.3%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.7%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 9.1%. The strategy executed 75 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
XLI Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 20.57% | 20.57% | 10.02% | 13.74% | 12.89% | 14.11% | 8.71% | 9.05% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.13 | 1.13 | 0.71 | 0.74 | 0.85 | 0.66 | 0.64 | 0.41 |
| Max Drawdown | -12.21% | -12.21% | -15.79% | -21.64% | -20.66% | -42.33% | -26.48% | -62.26% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 95.1% | 100.0% | 95.8% | 100.0% | 89.0% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-03-07 | 2025-06-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.26% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-04 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.74 | $112.85 | 16.59% | Stop | |
| 2023-01-24 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $94.53 | $112.85 | 19.31% | Stop | |
| 2024-09-09 | 2025-03-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $123.56 | $129.48 | 4.74% | Signal | |
| 2024-08-15 | 2024-09-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-12-15 | 2024-08-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $108.57 | $123.25 | 13.47% | Signal | |
| 2023-11-02 | 2023-12-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.64% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-07-10 | 2023-11-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $101.74 | $95.94 | -5.75% | Signal | |
| 2023-05-08 | 2023-07-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.88% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-12-08 | 2023-05-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $94.23 | $95.29 | 1.08% | Signal | |
| 2022-10-25 | 2023-04-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.98% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-02 | 2023-01-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-11-15 | 2022-12-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-13 | 2022-11-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $78.33 | $94.54 | 20.63% | Signal | |
| 2022-10-18 | 2022-10-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.64 | $84.88 | 1.43% | Signal | |
| 2022-09-26 | 2022-10-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-11 | 2022-10-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-06-15 | 2022-09-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $82.99 | $79.88 | -3.79% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-23 | 2022-06-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-02-10 | 2022-05-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.29 | $84.89 | 1.88% | Stop | |
| 2020-08-12 | 2022-05-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $71.41 | $89.04 | 24.62% | Signal | |
| 2021-12-06 | 2022-03-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.02 | $92.72 | -3.48% | Signal | |
| 2021-11-11 | 2021-12-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-11-09 | 2021-11-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $99.56 | $99.27 | -0.35% | Signal | |
| 2021-10-11 | 2021-11-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-09 | 2021-10-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.63 | $93.79 | 49.68% | Signal | |
| 2020-12-28 | 2021-02-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-12-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.09 | $81.63 | 73.26% | Signal | |
| 2020-04-30 | 2020-08-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-26 | 2020-07-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-04-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.09 | $58.79 | 24.79% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-03-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.09 | $53.63 | 13.84% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-11-12 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $73.62 | $66.78 | -9.34% | Stop | |
| 2019-02-07 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $64.59 | $66.78 | 3.34% | Stop | |
| 2019-02-07 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $64.59 | $66.78 | 3.34% | Stop | |
| 2019-10-03 | 2019-11-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-09-13 | 2019-10-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $70.87 | $66.65 | -6.00% | Stop | |
| 2019-08-21 | 2019-09-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-18 | 2019-08-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.48 | $67.16 | 9.17% | Signal | |
| 2018-12-07 | 2019-02-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.39% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-10-25 | 2019-02-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.66% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-26 | 2019-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-21 | 2018-12-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.48 | $53.61 | -12.85% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-16 | 2018-12-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $63.15 | $61.30 | -2.97% | Signal | |
| 2018-10-30 | 2018-11-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-10-25 | 2018-11-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-07-15 | 2018-10-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.58 | $59.70 | 20.35% | Stop | |
| 2018-10-03 | 2018-10-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $70.01 | $61.21 | -12.61% | Stop | |
| 2018-08-28 | 2018-10-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.13 | $61.21 | -10.20% | Stop | |
| 2018-09-11 | 2018-10-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-04-19 | 2018-09-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.22 | $67.96 | 43.84% | Signal | |
| 2018-05-15 | 2018-08-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.57% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-04-19 | 2018-05-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.22 | $64.67 | 36.87% | Signal | |
| 2016-03-30 | 2016-07-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-25 | 2016-04-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2016-04-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-09-17 | 2016-03-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.20 | $46.88 | 8.48% | Signal | |
| 2016-02-12 | 2016-02-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.80 | $43.19 | 5.81% | Signal | |
| 2016-01-21 | 2016-02-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-12-09 | 2016-01-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.07 | $39.99 | -9.29% | Stop | |
| 2015-07-10 | 2015-12-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-03-14 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.93 | $41.69 | 44.04% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-29 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.70 | $41.69 | 75.79% | Stop | |
| 2014-11-11 | 2015-07-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.81 | $44.59 | -2.71% | Signal | |
| 2014-10-13 | 2014-11-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-09-13 | 2014-10-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.67 | $40.93 | 42.72% | Signal | |
| 2012-06-22 | 2012-09-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-12-21 | 2012-06-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $25.62 | $26.89 | 4.91% | Signal | |
| 2011-10-05 | 2012-03-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-07-29 | 2011-12-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-25 | 2011-10-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.56 | $22.23 | -5.70% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-05 | 2011-08-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-03 | 2011-08-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-18 | 2011-08-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.26 | $24.41 | 9.57% | Stop | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2011-08-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.68 | $25.23 | 16.33% | Stop | |
| 2010-10-05 | 2011-07-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.42 | $26.15 | 11.62% | Signal | |
| 2010-07-30 | 2010-10-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-07-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.68 | $22.22 | 2.46% | Signal | |
| 2010-05-26 | 2010-06-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-09-15 | 2010-05-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.45 | $21.72 | 11.63% | Stop | |
| 2009-08-25 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.60 | $22.79 | 22.46% | Stop | |
| 2009-07-31 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.37 | $22.79 | 31.14% | Stop | |
| 2009-03-23 | 2009-09-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-03-23 | 2009-08-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-07-09 | 2009-07-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-06-02 | 2009-07-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.93 | $15.07 | -11.03% | Stop | |
| 2009-03-23 | 2009-06-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-03-19 | 2009-03-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.26 | $12.90 | -2.74% | Stop | |
| 2009-03-19 | 2009-03-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.26 | $12.90 | -2.74% | Stop | |
| 2009-03-19 | 2009-03-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.26 | $12.90 | -2.74% | Stop | |
| 2008-09-30 | 2009-03-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-07-24 | 2009-03-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.40% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-03-12 | 2009-03-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.99% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-07-28 | 2008-09-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.42 | $21.29 | -12.86% | Stop | |
| 2008-07-03 | 2008-07-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-07-22 | 2008-07-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.06 | $24.92 | 3.53% | Signal | |
| 2008-06-27 | 2008-07-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-02-12 | 2008-07-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $25.75 | $23.54 | -8.64% | Stop | |
| 2008-05-20 | 2008-06-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $27.65 | $24.06 | -13.05% | Stop | |
| 2008-01-02 | 2008-05-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-02-01 | 2008-03-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.13 | $25.26 | -3.34% | Signal | |
| 2008-01-18 | 2008-02-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-01-09 | 2008-02-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-11-03 | 2008-01-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.26 | $24.40 | 49.99% | Stop | |
| 2007-09-11 | 2008-01-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.76 | $25.43 | -5.05% | Stop | |
| 2007-09-11 | 2008-01-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.76 | $27.31 | 2.01% | Signal | |
| 2007-08-17 | 2007-09-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-08-17 | 2007-09-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-01-23 | 2007-08-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.23 | $26.73 | 10.25% | Stop | |
| 2006-09-06 | 2007-08-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.12 | $26.73 | 20.75% | Stop | |
| 2006-10-31 | 2007-01-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-11-28 | 2006-10-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.28 | $23.50 | 10.39% | Signal | |
| 2006-08-04 | 2006-09-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.43% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-11-28 | 2006-08-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.28 | $22.04 | 3.55% | Signal | |
| 2005-10-19 | 2005-11-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.42% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-08-30 | 2005-11-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.91% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-09-28 | 2005-10-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.10 | $19.81 | -1.49% | Signal | |
| 2005-04-28 | 2005-09-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.35% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-07-16 | 2005-08-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $14.73 | $19.87 | 34.80% | Signal | |
| 2004-06-22 | 2005-04-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.40 | $19.50 | 5.91% | Signal | |
| 2004-05-25 | 2004-06-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-05-21 | 2004-05-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.75 | $17.38 | 26.33% | Signal | |
| 2001-10-12 | 2003-11-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.95% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-03-19 | 2003-07-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 4.64% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-01-23 | 2003-05-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-01-17 | 2003-01-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.27 | $12.95 | -2.49% | Signal | |
| 2002-06-06 | 2003-01-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.94% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-05-22 | 2002-06-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.35 | $15.74 | -3.77% | Signal | |
| 2002-04-30 | 2002-05-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-01-10 | 2002-04-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.38 | $15.86 | -8.81% | Stop | |
| 2001-09-17 | 2002-01-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.63% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-10-08 | 2001-10-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $15.56 | $16.20 | 4.09% | Signal | |
| 2001-09-10 | 2001-10-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-07-02 | 2001-09-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.39 | $16.61 | -9.72% | Signal | |
| 2001-04-16 | 2001-09-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.58 | $16.83 | -4.28% | Stop | |
| 2001-02-09 | 2001-07-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.57% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-03-22 | 2001-04-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-12-14 | 2001-03-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.67 | $16.57 | -15.81% | Stop | |
| 2000-12-14 | 2001-03-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.67 | $17.13 | -12.94% | Stop | |
| 2001-01-29 | 2001-02-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.54 | $19.37 | -0.89% | Signal | |
| 2001-01-04 | 2001-01-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-12-14 | 2001-01-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.67 | $19.83 | 0.77% | Signal | |
| 2000-12-12 | 2000-12-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-12-12 | 2000-12-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-12-12 | 2000-12-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |