BKNG
Booking Holdings Inc
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for BKNG (Booking Holdings Inc) using the Excess Return SMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -78.2% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -88.9%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.0%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 20.3%. The strategy executed 66 total trades.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA Active
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
BKNG Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | -18.95% | -20.83% | 8.20% | 15.24% | 4.68% | 13.12% | 7.00% | 20.33% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.69 | -0.69 | 0.29 | 0.44 | 0.19 | 0.38 | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| Max Drawdown | -27.53% | -32.25% | -28.71% | -39.53% | -39.76% | -47.77% | -78.25% | -88.90% |
| % Time Invested | 81.0% | 100.0% | 80.2% | 100.0% | 69.8% | 100.0% | 65.8% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-02-27 | 2026-05-12 | Completed | 100% | $166.95 | $158.03 | -5.39% | Stop | |
| 2026-02-04 | 2026-02-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-11-10 | 2026-02-04 | Completed | 100% | $196.92 | $181.29 | -7.98% | Stop | |
| 2025-10-17 | 2025-11-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-02 | 2025-10-17 | Completed | 100% | $183.11 | $196.63 | 7.33% | Stop | |
| 2025-03-11 | 2025-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-27 | 2025-03-11 | Completed | 100% | $149.50 | $174.22 | 16.48% | Stop | |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-08-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-11-14 | 2024-08-05 | Completed | 100% | $124.00 | $126.14 | 1.68% | Stop | |
| 2023-10-23 | 2023-11-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-10 | 2023-10-23 | Completed | 100% | $86.19 | $107.86 | 25.08% | Stop | |
| 2022-10-03 | 2023-01-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-27 | 2022-10-03 | Completed | 100% | $66.45 | $65.51 | -1.47% | Signal | |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-09-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-07-08 | 2022-09-02 | Completed | 100% | $69.08 | $73.00 | 5.63% | Stop | |
| 2022-06-14 | 2022-07-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-27 | 2022-06-14 | Completed | 100% | $88.66 | $77.68 | -12.42% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-05 | 2022-05-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-21 | 2022-05-05 | Completed | 100% | $86.35 | $90.09 | 4.28% | Stop | |
| 2022-02-25 | 2022-03-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-12-21 | 2022-02-25 | Completed | 100% | $87.79 | $90.84 | 3.42% | Stop | |
| 2021-11-29 | 2021-12-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-08-02 | 2021-11-29 | Completed | 100% | $85.84 | $86.42 | 0.62% | Stop | |
| 2021-07-09 | 2021-08-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-26 | 2021-07-09 | Completed | 100% | $89.14 | $85.36 | -4.29% | Stop | |
| 2021-02-26 | 2021-03-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-02-25 | 2021-02-26 | Completed | 100% | $94.78 | $91.81 | -3.19% | Stop | |
| 2020-09-22 | 2021-02-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-08-13 | 2020-09-22 | Completed | 100% | $70.47 | $64.99 | -7.82% | Stop | |
| 2019-11-08 | 2020-08-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.54% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-10-18 | 2019-11-08 | Completed | 100% | $79.54 | $76.03 | -4.47% | Stop | |
| 2019-04-10 | 2019-10-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-16 | 2019-04-10 | Completed | 100% | $66.33 | $70.26 | 5.88% | Signal | |
| 2018-12-21 | 2019-01-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-09-06 | 2018-12-21 | Completed | 100% | $74.06 | $66.77 | -9.90% | Stop | |
| 2018-08-14 | 2018-09-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-12-01 | 2018-08-14 | Completed | 100% | $67.64 | $72.98 | 7.84% | Stop | |
| 2017-11-08 | 2017-12-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-07-21 | 2017-11-08 | Completed | 100% | $52.84 | $64.63 | 22.25% | Stop | |
| 2016-06-28 | 2016-07-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-04 | 2016-06-28 | Completed | 100% | $40.92 | $47.71 | 16.52% | Stop | |
| 2016-01-12 | 2016-02-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-12-10 | 2016-01-12 | Completed | 100% | $50.92 | $44.72 | -12.21% | Stop | |
| 2015-11-17 | 2015-12-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-08 | 2015-11-17 | Completed | 100% | $50.41 | $49.90 | -1.07% | Stop | |
| 2015-08-24 | 2015-10-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-02-05 | 2015-08-24 | Completed | 100% | $40.48 | $45.51 | 12.38% | Signal | |
| 2015-01-13 | 2015-02-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-10-30 | 2015-01-13 | Completed | 100% | $44.77 | $41.22 | -7.96% | Stop | |
| 2014-10-08 | 2014-10-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-04-22 | 2014-10-08 | Completed | 100% | $48.05 | $43.50 | -9.52% | Stop | |
| 2014-03-28 | 2014-04-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-08-31 | 2014-03-28 | Completed | 100% | $23.75 | $46.58 | 95.98% | Stop | |
| 2012-08-09 | 2012-08-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-12 | 2012-08-09 | Completed | 100% | $25.26 | $22.05 | -12.76% | Stop | |
| 2012-05-18 | 2012-06-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-12-19 | 2012-05-18 | Completed | 100% | $17.89 | $25.41 | 42.02% | Stop | |
| 2011-11-25 | 2011-12-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-10-25 | 2011-11-25 | Completed | 100% | $20.25 | $18.13 | -10.50% | Stop | |
| 2011-10-03 | 2011-10-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-09-13 | 2011-10-03 | Completed | 100% | $20.78 | $17.80 | -14.39% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-19 | 2011-09-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-07-11 | 2011-08-19 | Completed | 100% | $21.31 | $17.70 | -16.95% | Stop | |
| 2011-06-16 | 2011-07-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2011-06-16 | Completed | 100% | $7.49 | $18.41 | 145.87% | Stop | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-02-24 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 100% | $8.85 | $9.09 | 2.59% | Stop | |
| 2010-02-01 | 2010-02-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-09-14 | 2010-02-01 | Completed | 100% | $6.35 | $7.70 | 21.11% | Stop | |
| 2009-05-13 | 2009-09-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-04-03 | 2009-05-13 | Completed | 100% | $3.37 | $4.17 | 23.66% | Signal | |
| 2009-03-12 | 2009-04-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-02-12 | 2009-03-12 | Completed | 100% | $2.79 | $2.98 | 6.61% | Stop | |
| 2009-01-21 | 2009-02-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-12-29 | 2009-01-21 | Completed | 100% | $2.75 | $2.61 | -5.08% | Stop | |
| 2008-12-04 | 2008-12-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-10-31 | 2008-12-04 | Completed | 100% | $2.11 | $2.30 | 9.12% | Stop | |
| 2008-10-09 | 2008-10-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-10-03 | 2008-10-09 | Completed | 100% | $2.42 | $2.50 | 3.37% | Stop | |
| 2008-09-11 | 2008-10-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-08-29 | 2008-09-11 | Completed | 100% | $3.72 | $3.19 | -14.33% | Stop | |
| 2008-08-07 | 2008-08-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-07-24 | 2008-08-07 | Completed | 100% | $4.07 | $3.75 | -7.97% | Stop | |
| 2008-07-01 | 2008-07-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-04-10 | 2008-07-01 | Completed | 100% | $4.94 | $4.43 | -10.32% | Stop | |
| 2008-03-18 | 2008-04-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-01-31 | 2008-03-18 | Completed | 100% | $4.08 | $4.50 | 10.23% | Stop | |
| 2008-01-08 | 2008-01-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-12-04 | 2008-01-08 | Completed | 100% | $4.51 | $4.11 | -8.89% | Stop | |
| 2007-11-09 | 2007-12-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-08-29 | 2007-11-09 | Completed | 100% | $3.03 | $3.85 | 26.90% | Stop | |
| 2007-08-07 | 2007-08-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-06-08 | 2007-08-07 | Completed | 100% | $2.32 | $2.39 | 3.21% | Stop | |
| 2007-05-16 | 2007-06-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-07-03 | 2007-05-16 | Completed | 100% | $1.17 | $2.14 | 83.24% | Stop | |
| 2005-12-01 | 2006-07-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.62% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-09-16 | 2005-12-01 | Completed | 100% | $0.81 | $0.94 | 16.25% | Signal | |
| 2005-04-14 | 2005-09-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.35% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-03-04 | 2005-04-14 | Completed | 100% | $0.90 | $0.94 | 3.90% | Signal | |
| 2005-02-09 | 2005-03-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-08-26 | 2005-02-09 | Completed | 100% | $0.84 | $0.83 | -1.40% | Stop | |
| 2004-08-04 | 2004-08-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-07-30 | 2004-08-04 | Completed | 100% | $0.92 | $0.78 | -14.99% | Stop | |
| 2004-07-08 | 2004-07-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-06-03 | 2004-07-08 | Completed | 100% | $1.05 | $0.98 | -7.38% | Stop | |
| 2004-05-11 | 2004-06-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-03-18 | 2004-05-11 | Completed | 100% | $0.93 | $0.90 | -3.34% | Stop | |
| 2004-02-25 | 2004-03-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-01-06 | 2004-02-25 | Completed | 100% | $0.74 | $0.83 | 11.46% | Stop | |
| 2003-12-11 | 2004-01-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-11-14 | 2003-12-11 | Completed | 100% | $0.73 | $0.66 | -9.94% | Stop | |
| 2003-10-23 | 2003-11-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-10-02 | 2003-10-23 | Completed | 100% | $1.14 | $1.10 | -3.25% | Stop | |
| 2002-12-19 | 2003-10-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.83% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-12-02 | 2002-12-19 | Completed | 100% | $0.42 | $0.35 | -17.26% | Stop | |
| 2002-11-07 | 2002-12-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-10-30 | 2002-11-07 | Completed | 100% | $0.50 | $0.38 | -24.92% | Stop | |
| 2002-10-08 | 2002-10-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-09-26 | 2002-10-08 | Completed | 100% | $0.36 | $0.31 | -13.86% | Stop | |
| 2002-09-04 | 2002-09-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-07-26 | 2002-09-04 | Completed | 100% | $0.47 | $0.53 | 13.01% | Stop | |
| 2002-07-03 | 2002-07-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-07-02 | 2002-07-03 | Completed | 100% | $0.60 | $0.54 | -11.33% | Stop | |
| 2002-06-10 | 2002-07-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-05-28 | 2002-06-10 | Completed | 100% | $1.00 | $0.94 | -5.46% | Stop | |
| 2002-05-03 | 2002-05-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-04-26 | 2002-05-03 | Completed | 100% | $1.20 | $0.98 | -18.47% | Stop | |
| 2002-04-04 | 2002-04-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-04-02 | 2002-04-04 | Completed | 100% | $1.21 | $1.07 | -11.65% | Stop | |
| 2001-10-10 | 2002-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.85% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-10-01 | 2001-10-10 | Completed | 100% | $0.86 | $0.82 | -4.71% | Stop | |
| 2001-06-11 | 2001-10-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.96% | Interest Income | |