BKNG
Booking Holdings Inc
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for BKNG (Booking Holdings Inc) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -72.3% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -88.9%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.5%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 20.3%. The strategy executed 62 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
BKNG Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | -12.27% | -20.83% | 8.33% | 15.24% | 3.94% | 13.12% | 6.50% | 20.33% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.00 | -0.69 | 0.36 | 0.44 | 0.18 | 0.38 | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| Max Drawdown | -19.75% | -32.25% | -24.97% | -39.53% | -46.28% | -47.77% | -72.35% | -88.90% |
| % Time Invested | 27.8% | 100.0% | 61.4% | 100.0% | 62.6% | 100.0% | 59.8% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-24 | Completed | 100% | $196.92 | $192.04 | -2.52% | Signal | |
| 2025-10-17 | 2025-11-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-02 | 2025-10-17 | Completed | 100% | $183.11 | $196.63 | 7.33% | Stop | |
| 2025-03-11 | 2025-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-27 | 2025-03-11 | Completed | 100% | $149.50 | $174.22 | 16.48% | Stop | |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-08-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-11-14 | 2024-08-05 | Completed | 100% | $124.00 | $126.14 | 1.68% | Stop | |
| 2023-10-23 | 2023-11-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-10 | 2023-10-23 | Completed | 100% | $86.19 | $107.86 | 25.08% | Stop | |
| 2022-08-23 | 2023-01-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.47% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-08-17 | 2022-08-23 | Completed | 100% | $82.75 | $77.39 | -6.52% | Stop | |
| 2022-04-04 | 2022-08-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.57% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-21 | 2022-04-04 | Completed | 100% | $86.35 | $93.05 | 7.71% | Signal | |
| 2022-02-25 | 2022-03-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-12-21 | 2022-02-25 | Completed | 100% | $87.79 | $90.84 | 3.42% | Stop | |
| 2021-11-29 | 2021-12-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-09-30 | 2021-11-29 | Completed | 100% | $93.33 | $86.42 | -7.45% | Stop | |
| 2021-08-19 | 2021-09-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-08-02 | 2021-08-19 | Completed | 100% | $85.84 | $81.43 | -5.18% | Signal | |
| 2021-07-09 | 2021-08-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-02-22 | 2021-07-09 | Completed | 100% | $88.74 | $85.36 | -3.86% | Stop | |
| 2021-01-28 | 2021-02-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-10-14 | 2021-01-28 | Completed | 100% | $69.85 | $77.52 | 10.92% | Stop | |
| 2020-09-22 | 2020-10-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-08-13 | 2020-09-22 | Completed | 100% | $70.47 | $64.99 | -7.82% | Stop | |
| 2020-02-26 | 2020-08-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-07-23 | 2020-02-26 | Completed | 100% | $74.37 | $67.81 | -8.86% | Stop | |
| 2018-09-10 | 2019-07-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-09-06 | 2018-09-10 | Completed | 100% | $74.06 | $75.01 | 1.23% | Signal | |
| 2018-08-14 | 2018-09-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-03-01 | 2018-08-14 | Completed | 100% | $79.69 | $72.98 | -8.47% | Stop | |
| 2018-02-06 | 2018-03-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-01-17 | 2018-02-06 | Completed | 100% | $75.50 | $70.50 | -6.66% | Stop | |
| 2017-12-05 | 2018-01-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-12-01 | 2017-12-05 | Completed | 100% | $67.64 | $67.60 | -0.11% | Signal | |
| 2017-11-08 | 2017-12-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-07-21 | 2017-11-08 | Completed | 100% | $52.84 | $64.63 | 22.25% | Stop | |
| 2016-06-28 | 2016-07-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-19 | 2016-06-28 | Completed | 100% | $48.50 | $47.71 | -1.69% | Stop | |
| 2016-01-12 | 2016-02-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-12-10 | 2016-01-12 | Completed | 100% | $50.92 | $44.72 | -12.21% | Stop | |
| 2015-11-17 | 2015-12-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-04-16 | 2015-11-17 | Completed | 100% | $47.00 | $49.90 | 6.11% | Stop | |
| 2015-03-16 | 2015-04-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-02-19 | 2015-03-16 | Completed | 100% | $47.75 | $45.56 | -4.63% | Stop | |
| 2014-10-08 | 2015-02-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-04-22 | 2014-10-08 | Completed | 100% | $48.05 | $43.50 | -9.52% | Stop | |
| 2014-03-28 | 2014-04-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-01-22 | 2014-03-28 | Completed | 100% | $26.30 | $46.58 | 77.00% | Stop | |
| 2012-09-26 | 2013-01-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-08-31 | 2012-09-26 | Completed | 100% | $23.75 | $24.72 | 4.01% | Signal | |
| 2012-08-09 | 2012-08-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-12 | 2012-08-09 | Completed | 100% | $25.26 | $22.05 | -12.76% | Stop | |
| 2012-05-18 | 2012-06-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-02-22 | 2012-05-18 | Completed | 100% | $22.91 | $25.41 | 10.86% | Stop | |
| 2011-11-25 | 2012-02-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-10-25 | 2011-11-25 | Completed | 100% | $20.25 | $18.13 | -10.50% | Stop | |
| 2011-10-03 | 2011-10-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-09-13 | 2011-10-03 | Completed | 100% | $20.78 | $17.80 | -14.39% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-19 | 2011-09-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-07-11 | 2011-08-19 | Completed | 100% | $21.31 | $17.70 | -16.95% | Stop | |
| 2011-06-16 | 2011-07-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-08-06 | 2011-06-16 | Completed | 100% | $11.36 | $18.41 | 62.07% | Stop | |
| 2010-07-01 | 2010-08-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-07-01 | Completed | 100% | $7.49 | $6.92 | -7.61% | Signal | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-02-24 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 100% | $8.85 | $9.09 | 2.59% | Stop | |
| 2010-02-01 | 2010-02-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-04-13 | 2010-02-01 | Completed | 100% | $3.49 | $7.70 | 120.50% | Stop | |
| 2008-08-07 | 2009-04-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-07-24 | 2008-08-07 | Completed | 100% | $4.07 | $3.75 | -7.97% | Stop | |
| 2008-07-01 | 2008-07-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-04-10 | 2008-07-01 | Completed | 100% | $4.94 | $4.43 | -10.32% | Stop | |
| 2008-03-18 | 2008-04-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-01-31 | 2008-03-18 | Completed | 100% | $4.08 | $4.50 | 10.23% | Stop | |
| 2008-01-08 | 2008-01-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-12-04 | 2008-01-08 | Completed | 100% | $4.51 | $4.11 | -8.89% | Stop | |
| 2007-11-09 | 2007-12-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-08-29 | 2007-11-09 | Completed | 100% | $3.03 | $3.85 | 26.90% | Stop | |
| 2007-08-07 | 2007-08-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-06-08 | 2007-08-07 | Completed | 100% | $2.32 | $2.39 | 3.21% | Stop | |
| 2007-05-16 | 2007-06-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-08-07 | 2007-05-16 | Completed | 100% | $1.02 | $2.14 | 108.94% | Stop | |
| 2006-07-14 | 2006-08-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-01-05 | 2006-07-14 | Completed | 100% | $0.90 | $1.06 | 17.73% | Stop | |
| 2005-08-11 | 2006-01-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.50% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-07-15 | 2005-08-11 | Completed | 100% | $0.91 | $0.89 | -2.32% | Signal | |
| 2005-06-22 | 2005-07-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-03-31 | 2005-06-22 | Completed | 100% | $1.00 | $0.88 | -11.36% | Stop | |
| 2005-03-08 | 2005-03-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-03-04 | 2005-03-08 | Completed | 100% | $0.90 | $0.92 | 1.69% | Signal | |
| 2005-02-09 | 2005-03-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-11-10 | 2005-02-09 | Completed | 100% | $0.90 | $0.83 | -8.13% | Stop | |
| 2004-09-03 | 2004-11-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-08-26 | 2004-09-03 | Completed | 100% | $0.84 | $0.83 | -1.54% | Signal | |
| 2004-08-04 | 2004-08-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-07-30 | 2004-08-04 | Completed | 100% | $0.92 | $0.78 | -14.99% | Stop | |
| 2004-07-08 | 2004-07-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-06-02 | 2004-07-08 | Completed | 100% | $1.11 | $0.98 | -12.12% | Stop | |
| 2004-04-16 | 2004-06-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-04-02 | 2004-04-16 | Completed | 100% | $1.07 | $1.00 | -6.54% | Stop | |
| 2003-12-11 | 2004-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-11-14 | 2003-12-11 | Completed | 100% | $0.73 | $0.66 | -9.94% | Stop | |
| 2003-10-23 | 2003-11-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-10-15 | 2003-10-23 | Completed | 100% | $1.32 | $1.10 | -16.26% | Stop | |
| 2003-09-23 | 2003-10-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-08-29 | 2003-09-23 | Completed | 100% | $1.52 | $1.25 | -17.53% | Stop | |
| 2003-08-07 | 2003-08-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-07-18 | 2003-08-07 | Completed | 100% | $0.86 | $1.16 | 33.67% | Stop | |
| 2003-06-25 | 2003-07-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-06-04 | 2003-06-25 | Completed | 100% | $0.88 | $0.89 | 1.01% | Stop | |
| 2003-05-12 | 2003-06-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-05-07 | 2003-05-12 | Completed | 100% | $0.78 | $0.70 | -10.29% | Stop | |
| 2002-10-29 | 2003-05-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.61% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-10-28 | 2002-10-29 | Completed | 100% | $0.57 | $0.53 | -6.63% | Stop | |
| 2001-10-25 | 2002-10-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.75% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-10-08 | 2001-10-25 | Completed | 100% | $0.80 | $0.91 | 13.39% | Signal | |
| 2001-09-10 | 2001-10-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-09-04 | 2001-09-10 | Completed | 100% | $1.32 | $1.17 | -11.47% | Stop | |
| 2001-08-10 | 2001-09-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-07-30 | 2001-08-10 | Completed | 100% | $1.91 | $1.87 | -2.51% | Stop | |
| 2001-07-06 | 2001-07-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-06-25 | 2001-07-06 | Completed | 100% | $1.83 | $1.87 | 2.52% | Stop | |
| 2001-06-11 | 2001-06-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |