BSV Vanguard Short-term Bond Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for BSV (Vanguard Short-term Bond Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -4.7% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -8.5%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.5%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.1%. The strategy executed 23 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
BSV Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 4.08% | 3.90% | 3.47% | 1.66% | 2.90% | 2.01% | 2.54% | 2.08% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.53 | 2.12 | 2.32 | 0.61 | 1.74 | 0.84 | 1.53 | 0.97 |
| Max Drawdown | -1.04% | -1.29% | -1.74% | -8.54% | -4.65% | -8.54% | -4.65% | -8.54% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 65.9% | 100.0% | 73.1% | 100.0% | 84.3% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-01 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $72.46 | $78.14 | 7.84% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-26 | Open | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-04 | Open | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-07-15 | 2026-05-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $75.71 | $77.96 | 2.97% | Signal |
| 2026-03-16 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.46% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-15 | 2026-03-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $74.81 | $77.98 | 4.24% | Signal |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-07-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.72% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-02 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-04 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income |
| 2024-12-23 | 2025-04-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.67% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-01 | 2025-04-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.46 | $75.39 | 4.04% | Signal |
| 2024-08-01 | 2024-12-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.46 | $73.19 | 1.01% | Signal |
| 2024-07-09 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2024-04-29 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.63% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.08 | 7.88% | Interest Income |
| 2024-04-17 | 2024-07-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $70.18 | $71.62 | 2.05% | Signal |
| 2024-01-11 | 2024-04-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $70.54 | $70.29 | -0.36% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-04-17 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.06 | 6.00% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-30 | 2024-01-11 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.29% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-06 | 2023-06-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.56 | $68.23 | -0.49% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-06-06 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income |
| 2023-05-12 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2023-03-02 | 2023-05-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $67.16 | $69.28 | 3.15% | Signal |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.04% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-02-15 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2019-08-06 | 2022-02-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.37 | $69.91 | 2.26% | Signal |
| 2021-11-04 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-11-02 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2021-09-13 | 2021-11-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.01 | $71.59 | -0.59% | Signal |
| 2021-10-28 | 2021-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2021-07-16 | 2021-10-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $71.89 | $71.46 | -0.60% | Signal |
| 2021-09-02 | 2021-09-13 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-08-03 | 2021-09-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-06-24 | 2021-08-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2021-05-04 | 2021-07-16 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income |
| 2019-02-27 | 2021-06-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.11 | $71.83 | 8.66% | Signal |
| 2021-04-07 | 2021-05-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2019-01-17 | 2021-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $65.65 | $71.73 | 9.27% | Signal |
| 2019-03-04 | 2019-08-06 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.40% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-04 | 2019-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.61% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-04 | 2019-02-27 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.57% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-04 | 2019-01-17 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2018-01-22 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.73% | Interest Income |
| 2017-11-24 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.97% | Interest Income |
| 2017-08-18 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.50% | Interest Income |
| 2017-08-07 | 2018-01-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $64.95 | $64.50 | -0.70% | Signal |
| 2017-04-27 | 2017-11-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $64.55 | $64.82 | 0.41% | Signal |
| 2009-04-02 | 2017-08-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $54.97 | $65.05 | 18.34% | Signal |
| 2017-05-02 | 2017-08-07 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.45% | Interest Income |
| 2017-04-04 | 2017-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2017-04-04 | 2017-04-27 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2017-01-30 | 2017-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income |
| 2016-11-25 | 2017-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.41% | Interest Income |
| 2014-01-21 | 2017-01-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.80 | $64.15 | 3.80% | Signal |
| 2016-02-19 | 2016-11-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $63.79 | $63.94 | 0.24% | Signal |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-02-19 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2016-01-26 | 2016-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income |
| 2013-11-11 | 2016-01-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.83 | $63.43 | 2.59% | Signal |
| 2014-01-03 | 2014-01-21 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2013-12-03 | 2014-01-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2013-08-02 | 2013-12-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2013-08-02 | 2013-11-11 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-12 | 2013-08-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-02 | 2013-08-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2013-05-06 | 2013-07-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.91 | $61.43 | -0.77% | Signal |
| 2013-06-12 | 2013-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.12% | Interest Income |
| 2009-04-02 | 2013-06-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $54.97 | $61.50 | 11.90% | Signal |
| 2013-02-08 | 2013-05-06 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income |
| 2011-05-03 | 2013-02-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $59.54 | $61.62 | 3.50% | Signal |
| 2011-04-04 | 2011-05-03 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2011-03-02 | 2011-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2011-02-01 | 2011-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2009-04-02 | 2011-02-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $54.97 | $59.11 | 7.54% | Signal |
| 2009-03-31 | 2009-04-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2009-03-31 | 2009-04-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2009-03-31 | 2009-04-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |