BSV
Vanguard Short-term Bond Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-06-19
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for BSV (Vanguard Short-term Bond Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return SMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -4.7% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -8.5%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.4%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.0%. The strategy executed 2 total trades.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA Active
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
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BSV Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 3.33% | 3.33% | 3.07% | 1.65% | 2.46% | 1.92% | 2.36% | 2.05% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.81 | 1.81 | 2.11 | 0.60 | 1.50 | 0.80 | 1.40 | 0.96 |
| Max Drawdown | -1.29% | -1.29% | -3.24% | -8.54% | -4.65% | -8.54% | -4.65% | -8.54% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 51.5% | 100.0% | 57.5% | 100.0% | 75.3% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-01 | Open | Open | 100% | $72.21 | $77.66 | 7.55% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2022-02-28 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.11 | 10.75% | Interest Income |
| 2019-08-14 | 2022-02-28 | Completed | 100% | $68.17 | $69.94 | 2.53% | Signal |
| 2017-10-16 | 2019-08-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 3.70% | Interest Income |
| 2009-04-02 | 2017-10-16 | Completed | 100% | $54.78 | $64.75 | 18.15% | Signal |
| 2009-03-31 | 2009-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |