ISTB iShares Core 1-5 Year USD Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for ISTB (iShares Core 1-5 Year USD Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -5.8% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -9.3%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.1%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.2%. The strategy executed 22 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
ISTB Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 4.26% | 4.47% | 3.21% | 1.90% | 2.32% | 2.32% | 2.12% | 2.17% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.58 | 2.47 | 2.15 | 0.68 | 1.48 | 0.92 | 1.33 | 0.89 |
| Max Drawdown | -1.26% | -1.26% | -2.49% | -9.34% | -5.79% | -9.34% | -5.79% | -9.34% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 70.0% | 100.0% | 77.0% | 100.0% | 80.2% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-26 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $46.75 | $48.39 | 3.52% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2024-08-05 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $44.92 | $48.39 | 7.72% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-04 | Open | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-03-30 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-14 | 2026-03-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.84 | $48.02 | 4.76% | Signal |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-06-26 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-12 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income |
| 2024-04-04 | 2025-05-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.40 | $46.16 | 6.36% | Signal |
| 2024-12-30 | 2025-04-14 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-12-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.92 | $45.14 | 0.49% | Signal |
| 2024-08-02 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-02 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2024-05-06 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.41% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.08 | 7.87% | Interest Income |
| 2024-01-10 | 2024-05-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.23 | $43.44 | 0.48% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-04-04 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.06 | 5.79% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-27 | 2024-01-10 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.39% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-12 | 2023-06-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.77 | $41.79 | 0.06% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-06-12 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income |
| 2023-05-18 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2023-02-16 | 2023-05-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.24 | $41.90 | 1.59% | Signal |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-02-16 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.71% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-28 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-13 | 2022-03-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.69 | $41.91 | -1.83% | Signal |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-12-08 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-11-02 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-13 | 2021-12-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.69 | $43.62 | 2.17% | Signal |
| 2021-10-29 | 2021-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2021-06-18 | 2021-10-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.94 | $43.73 | -0.50% | Signal |
| 2021-05-20 | 2021-06-18 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-13 | 2021-05-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.69 | $43.99 | 3.04% | Signal |
| 2020-03-19 | 2020-04-13 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-19 | 2020-04-13 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-19 | 2020-04-13 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2019-06-03 | 2020-03-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.04 | $40.58 | -1.12% | Stop |
| 2019-02-26 | 2020-03-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.24 | $40.58 | 0.85% | Stop |
| 2019-01-28 | 2020-03-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.95 | $40.58 | 1.57% | Stop |
| 2019-03-04 | 2019-06-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.94% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-04 | 2019-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.61% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-04 | 2019-02-26 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.57% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-04 | 2019-01-28 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.38% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2018-10-31 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2018-03-21 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.49% | Interest Income |
| 2018-02-09 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.54% | Interest Income |
| 2018-09-20 | 2018-10-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.28 | $39.26 | -0.04% | Signal |
| 2017-12-07 | 2018-09-20 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.81% | Interest Income |
| 2014-10-22 | 2018-03-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $37.71 | $38.97 | 3.35% | Signal |
| 2017-06-16 | 2018-02-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.24 | $39.05 | -0.47% | Signal |
| 2017-04-05 | 2017-12-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.98 | $39.34 | 0.91% | Signal |
| 2017-05-02 | 2017-06-16 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income |
| 2017-04-04 | 2017-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2017-04-04 | 2017-04-05 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2017-03-14 | 2017-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2016-12-07 | 2017-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.45% | Interest Income |
| 2016-03-22 | 2017-03-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.22 | $38.69 | 1.21% | Signal |
| 2016-04-04 | 2016-12-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.27 | $38.57 | 0.79% | Signal |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-04-04 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-03-22 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-24 | 2016-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2014-10-22 | 2016-02-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $37.71 | $38.00 | 0.76% | Signal |
| 2016-01-11 | 2016-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2015-10-12 | 2016-01-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.04 | $37.84 | -0.51% | Signal |
| 2015-09-18 | 2015-10-12 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2014-10-22 | 2015-09-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $37.71 | $37.98 | 0.71% | Signal |
| 2014-10-20 | 2014-10-22 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2014-10-20 | 2014-10-22 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2014-10-20 | 2014-10-22 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |