ISTB
iShares Core 1-5 Year USD Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-06-19
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for ISTB (iShares Core 1-5 Year USD Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -5.9% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -9.3%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.0%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.1%. The strategy executed 23 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
ISTB Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 3.73% | 3.80% | 3.08% | 1.89% | 2.11% | 2.24% | 1.96% | 2.14% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.30 | 2.10 | 2.41 | 0.67 | 1.45 | 0.89 | 1.31 | 0.88 |
| Max Drawdown | -1.26% | -1.26% | -2.46% | -9.34% | -5.88% | -9.34% | -5.88% | -9.34% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 70.1% | 100.0% | 77.0% | 100.0% | 80.3% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-05 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $44.76 | $48.10 | 7.46% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-06-09 | Open | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-03-30 | Open | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.83% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-06-26 | 2026-06-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.58 | $48.08 | 3.17% | Signal |
| 2025-04-14 | 2026-03-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.68 | $47.85 | 4.71% | Signal |
| 2025-05-12 | 2025-06-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.53% | Interest Income |
| 2024-04-04 | 2025-05-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.24 | $45.99 | 6.31% | Signal |
| 2024-12-30 | 2025-04-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.20% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-12-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.76 | $44.98 | 0.44% | Signal |
| 2024-05-06 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.32% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-28 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.11 | 10.76% | Interest Income |
| 2024-01-10 | 2024-05-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.08 | $43.29 | 0.43% | Signal |
| 2021-12-08 | 2024-04-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.09 | 8.89% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-27 | 2024-01-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.95% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-12 | 2023-06-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.62 | $41.64 | 0.01% | Signal |
| 2023-05-18 | 2023-06-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income |
| 2023-02-16 | 2023-05-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.10 | $41.75 | 1.54% | Signal |
| 2021-10-29 | 2023-02-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.67% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-13 | 2022-03-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.54 | $41.76 | -1.88% | Signal |
| 2020-04-13 | 2021-12-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.54 | $43.46 | 2.12% | Signal |
| 2021-06-18 | 2021-10-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.79 | $43.57 | -0.55% | Signal |
| 2021-05-20 | 2021-06-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-13 | 2021-05-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.54 | $43.83 | 2.99% | Signal |
| 2020-03-19 | 2020-04-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-19 | 2020-04-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-19 | 2020-04-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2019-06-03 | 2020-03-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.89 | $40.44 | -1.17% | Stop |
| 2019-02-26 | 2020-03-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.09 | $40.44 | 0.80% | Stop |
| 2019-01-28 | 2020-03-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.81 | $40.44 | 1.52% | Stop |
| 2018-03-21 | 2019-06-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.64% | Interest Income |
| 2018-02-09 | 2019-02-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.17% | Interest Income |
| 2018-10-31 | 2019-01-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.55% | Interest Income |
| 2018-09-20 | 2018-10-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.14 | $39.12 | -0.09% | Signal |
| 2017-12-07 | 2018-09-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.40% | Interest Income |
| 2014-10-22 | 2018-03-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $37.58 | $38.83 | 3.30% | Signal |
| 2017-06-16 | 2018-02-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.10 | $38.91 | -0.52% | Signal |
| 2017-04-05 | 2017-12-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.84 | $39.20 | 0.86% | Signal |
| 2017-03-14 | 2017-06-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income |
| 2016-12-07 | 2017-04-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income |
| 2016-03-22 | 2017-03-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.09 | $38.55 | 1.16% | Signal |
| 2016-04-04 | 2016-12-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.13 | $38.44 | 0.74% | Signal |
| 2016-01-11 | 2016-04-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-24 | 2016-03-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2014-10-22 | 2016-02-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $37.58 | $37.86 | 0.71% | Signal |
| 2015-10-12 | 2016-01-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $37.90 | $37.71 | -0.56% | Signal |
| 2015-09-18 | 2015-10-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2014-10-22 | 2015-09-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $37.58 | $37.84 | 0.66% | Signal |
| 2014-10-20 | 2014-10-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2014-10-20 | 2014-10-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2014-10-20 | 2014-10-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |