ISTB
iShares Core 1-5 Year USD Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-08-03
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for ISTB (iShares Core 1-5 Year USD Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -5.9% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -9.3%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.0%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.1%. The strategy executed 23 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
ISTB Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 2.91% | 2.47% | 3.04% | 1.79% | 2.09% | 2.19% | 1.97% | 2.11% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.98 | 1.40 | 2.39 | 0.63 | 1.45 | 0.87 | 1.32 | 0.87 |
| Max Drawdown | -1.26% | -1.26% | -2.46% | -9.34% | -5.88% | -9.34% | -5.88% | -9.34% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 70.0% | 100.0% | 77.0% | 100.0% | 80.5% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-04-14 | 2026-03-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.52 | $47.68 | 4.71% | Signal | |
| 2025-05-12 | 2025-06-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.53% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-04-04 | 2025-05-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.09 | $45.83 | 6.31% | Signal | |
| 2024-12-30 | 2025-04-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-12-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.60 | $44.82 | 0.44% | Signal | |
| 2024-05-06 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-28 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.11 | 10.76% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-01-10 | 2024-05-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.93 | $43.13 | 0.43% | Signal | |
| 2021-12-08 | 2024-04-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.09 | 8.89% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-06-27 | 2024-01-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.95% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-06-12 | 2023-06-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.47 | $41.50 | 0.01% | Signal | |
| 2023-05-18 | 2023-06-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-02-16 | 2023-05-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.95 | $41.60 | 1.54% | Signal | |
| 2021-10-29 | 2023-02-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.67% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-13 | 2022-03-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.39 | $41.61 | -1.88% | Signal | |
| 2020-04-13 | 2021-12-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.39 | $43.31 | 2.12% | Signal | |
| 2021-06-18 | 2021-10-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.63 | $43.42 | -0.55% | Signal | |
| 2021-05-20 | 2021-06-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-13 | 2021-05-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.39 | $43.68 | 2.99% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-19 | 2020-04-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-19 | 2020-04-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-19 | 2020-04-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-06-03 | 2020-03-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.75 | $40.29 | -1.17% | Stop | |
| 2019-02-26 | 2020-03-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.95 | $40.29 | 0.80% | Stop | |
| 2019-01-28 | 2020-03-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.67 | $40.29 | 1.52% | Stop | |
| 2018-03-21 | 2019-06-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.64% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-02-09 | 2019-02-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-10-31 | 2019-01-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.55% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-09-20 | 2018-10-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.00 | $38.98 | -0.09% | Signal | |
| 2017-12-07 | 2018-09-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.40% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-10-22 | 2018-03-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $37.44 | $38.70 | 3.30% | Signal | |
| 2017-06-16 | 2018-02-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.96 | $38.77 | -0.52% | Signal | |
| 2017-04-05 | 2017-12-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.70 | $39.06 | 0.86% | Signal | |
| 2017-03-14 | 2017-06-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-07 | 2017-04-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-03-22 | 2017-03-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $37.95 | $38.41 | 1.16% | Signal | |
| 2016-04-04 | 2016-12-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.00 | $38.30 | 0.74% | Signal | |
| 2016-01-11 | 2016-04-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-24 | 2016-03-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-10-22 | 2016-02-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $37.44 | $37.73 | 0.71% | Signal | |
| 2015-10-12 | 2016-01-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $37.77 | $37.57 | -0.56% | Signal | |
| 2015-09-18 | 2015-10-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-10-22 | 2015-09-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $37.44 | $37.71 | 0.66% | Signal | |
| 2014-10-20 | 2014-10-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-10-20 | 2014-10-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-10-20 | 2014-10-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |