ISTB

iShares Core 1-5 Year USD Bond ETF

TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY

2026-09-04

Executive Summary

The quantitative backtest for ISTB (iShares Core 1-5 Year USD Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -5.9% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -9.3%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.0%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.1%. The strategy executed 23 total trades.

* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.

📊 Strategy Model 4 Models Available

Compare quantitative moving average overlays for ISTB:

Excess Return MMA Active Model

Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.

Excess Return MMA CA

Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.

Excess Return SMA

Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.

Moving Average (50/200)

Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.

🎯 Trading Horizon

Select risk profile & execution style for ISTB:

🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active Horizon

Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.

⚔️ Tactical Trading

Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.

🛡️ ISTB Drawdown Shield & Downside Protection

Why Drawdown Dictates Longevity →

Peak Drawdown Defense

-5.9% (vs -9.3% B&H)

+3.5% shallower drawdown

Downside Efficiency

1.36 Sortino

+0.19 vs 1.17 B&H

Capital Sheltered from Risk

34.8% of Time

Earning Treasury yield during downturns

* Drawdown Shield demonstrates how systematic trend-following bounded historical drawdowns and protected principal capital compared to passive Buy & Hold.

📊 ISTB Quality Metrics & KPI Summary

Metric	1Y		5Y		10Y		Full
	Strategy	B&H	Strategy	B&H	Strategy	B&H	Strategy	B&H
Max Drawdown	-1.26%	-1.26%	-2.45%	-9.33%	-5.88%	-9.34%	-5.88%	-9.34%
Sharpe Ratio	1.89	1.30	2.48	0.68	1.46	0.88	1.34	0.88
Sortino Ratio	2.54	1.95	2.96	1.03	1.35	1.14	1.36	1.17
CAGR	2.62%	2.28%	3.16%	1.92%	2.12%	2.22%	1.99%	2.14%
% Time Invested	77.2%	100.0%	47.2%	100.0%	60.0%	100.0%	65.2%	100.0%
Trades / Year	0.0	0.0	1.4	0.0	1.7	0.0	1.9	0.0

Cumulative Growth Performance

Hydrating Performance Trajectory... Loading historical performance data

Figure 1: Cumulative Trajectory Analysis. Logarithmic growth comparison of ISTB under the Excess Return MMA strategy (Investing) versus Buy & Hold. The strategy produced a 2.0% CAGR with a -5.9% Max Drawdown across 23 trade signals (compared to Buy & Hold's 2.1% CAGR and -9.3% Max Drawdown).

Histogram of monthly return distribution for ISTB under Excess Return MMA strategy in Investing context, illustrating downside risk mitigation and return skewness. — **Figure 2: Monthly Return Distribution Profile.** Monthly return distribution for **ISTB** under **Excess Return MMA** (Investing). Visualizes return frequency, volatility clustering, and tail-risk truncation relative to standard buy-and-hold returns.

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Top Diversifiers for ISTB

Explore Correlation Across Horizons →

Top 5 non-correlated asset sleeves evaluated on 1Y daily percentage returns (Pearson r). Compare them side-by-side in Compare Studio to analyze portfolio diversification.

Diversifier Asset	Category	1Y Correlation (r)	Action
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Trade History

This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.

Entry Date	Exit Date	Type	Allocation	Entry Price	Exit Price	Net Return %	Exit Reason
🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Subscribe to Unlock
2025-06-26	2026-06-09	Completed	33.33%	$46.08	$47.56	3.17%	Signal
2025-04-14	2026-03-30	Completed	33.33%	$45.18	$47.34	4.71%	Signal
2025-05-12	2025-06-26	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.53%	Interest Income
2024-04-04	2025-05-12	Completed	33.33%	$42.78	$45.50	6.31%	Signal
2024-12-30	2025-04-14	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	1.20%	Interest Income
2024-08-05	2024-12-30	Completed	33.33%	$44.28	$44.50	0.44%	Signal
2024-05-06	2024-08-05	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	1.32%	Interest Income
2022-03-28	2024-08-05	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.11	10.76%	Interest Income
2024-01-10	2024-05-06	Completed	33.33%	$42.61	$42.82	0.43%	Signal
2021-12-08	2024-04-04	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.09	8.89%	Interest Income
2023-06-27	2024-01-10	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.03	2.95%	Interest Income
2023-06-12	2023-06-27	Completed	33.33%	$41.17	$41.19	0.01%	Signal
2023-05-18	2023-06-12	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.34%	Interest Income
2023-02-16	2023-05-18	Completed	33.33%	$40.65	$41.30	1.54%	Signal
2021-10-29	2023-02-16	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.03	2.67%	Interest Income
2020-04-13	2022-03-28	Completed	33.33%	$42.08	$41.31	-1.88%	Signal
2020-04-13	2021-12-08	Completed	33.33%	$42.08	$42.99	2.12%	Signal
2021-06-18	2021-10-29	Completed	33.33%	$43.32	$43.10	-0.55%	Signal
2021-05-20	2021-06-18	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.00%	Interest Income
2020-04-13	2021-05-20	Completed	33.33%	$42.08	$43.36	2.99%	Signal
2020-03-19	2020-04-13	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2020-03-19	2020-04-13	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2020-03-19	2020-04-13	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2019-06-03	2020-03-19	Completed	33.33%	$40.45	$40.00	-1.17%	Stop
2019-02-26	2020-03-19	Completed	33.33%	$39.66	$40.00	0.80%	Stop
2019-01-28	2020-03-19	Completed	33.33%	$39.38	$40.00	1.52%	Stop
2018-03-21	2019-06-03	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.03	2.64%	Interest Income
2018-02-09	2019-02-26	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.02	2.17%	Interest Income
2018-10-31	2019-01-28	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.55%	Interest Income
2018-09-20	2018-10-31	Completed	33.33%	$38.71	$38.70	-0.09%	Signal
2017-12-07	2018-09-20	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	1.40%	Interest Income
2014-10-22	2018-03-21	Completed	33.33%	$37.17	$38.41	3.30%	Signal
2017-06-16	2018-02-09	Completed	33.33%	$38.67	$38.49	-0.52%	Signal
2017-04-05	2017-12-07	Completed	33.33%	$38.42	$38.77	0.86%	Signal
2017-03-14	2017-06-16	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.22%	Interest Income
2016-12-07	2017-04-05	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.19%	Interest Income
2016-03-22	2017-03-14	Completed	33.33%	$37.68	$38.13	1.16%	Signal
2016-04-04	2016-12-07	Completed	33.33%	$37.72	$38.02	0.74%	Signal
2016-01-11	2016-04-04	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.07%	Interest Income
2016-02-24	2016-03-22	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.02%	Interest Income
2014-10-22	2016-02-24	Completed	33.33%	$37.17	$37.45	0.71%	Signal
2015-10-12	2016-01-11	Completed	33.33%	$37.49	$37.30	-0.56%	Signal
2015-09-18	2015-10-12	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.00%	Interest Income
2014-10-22	2015-09-18	Completed	33.33%	$37.17	$37.43	0.66%	Signal
2014-10-20	2014-10-22	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.00%	Interest Income
2014-10-20	2014-10-22	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.00%	Interest Income
2014-10-20	2014-10-22	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.00%	Interest Income