NOW
ServiceNow Inc
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for NOW (ServiceNow Inc) using the Excess Return SMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -51.6% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -64.5%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 14.5%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 19.5%. The strategy executed 28 total trades.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA Active
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
NOW Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | -44.21% | -50.44% | -5.65% | -3.31% | 12.85% | 20.99% | 14.53% | 19.48% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -2.50 | -1.31 | -0.19 | -0.08 | 0.38 | 0.47 | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| Max Drawdown | -45.13% | -58.34% | -51.56% | -64.54% | -51.56% | -64.54% | -51.56% | -64.54% |
| % Time Invested | 34.1% | 100.0% | 66.7% | 100.0% | 75.4% | 100.0% | 77.1% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-01-28 | 2026-02-04 | Completed | 100% | $132.27 | $107.19 | -19.00% | Stop | |
| 2026-01-05 | 2026-01-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-12-12 | 2026-01-05 | Completed | 100% | $173.48 | $146.51 | -15.59% | Stop | |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-12-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-09-02 | 2025-11-19 | Completed | 100% | $180.35 | $163.33 | -9.48% | Stop | |
| 2025-08-08 | 2025-09-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-02 | 2025-08-08 | Completed | 100% | $158.94 | $175.68 | 10.48% | Stop | |
| 2025-03-11 | 2025-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-02-25 | 2025-03-11 | Completed | 100% | $184.74 | $160.00 | -13.44% | Stop | |
| 2025-01-31 | 2025-02-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-06-25 | 2025-01-31 | Completed | 100% | $149.00 | $206.40 | 38.46% | Stop | |
| 2024-05-31 | 2024-06-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-05-20 | 2024-05-31 | Completed | 100% | $152.71 | $130.36 | -14.68% | Stop | |
| 2024-04-26 | 2024-05-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2024-04-26 | Completed | 100% | $84.16 | $144.75 | 71.91% | Stop | |
| 2022-09-28 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-22 | 2022-09-28 | Completed | 100% | $79.97 | $75.69 | -5.41% | Signal | |
| 2022-08-30 | 2022-09-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-07-13 | 2022-08-30 | Completed | 100% | $83.20 | $88.50 | 6.31% | Stop | |
| 2022-06-17 | 2022-07-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-06-03 | 2022-06-17 | Completed | 100% | $99.17 | $86.03 | -13.30% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-11 | 2022-06-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-05 | 2022-05-11 | Completed | 100% | $98.98 | $85.23 | -13.93% | Stop | |
| 2022-04-12 | 2022-05-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-21 | 2022-04-12 | Completed | 100% | $115.00 | $104.52 | -9.16% | Stop | |
| 2022-02-25 | 2022-03-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-01 | 2022-02-25 | Completed | 100% | $116.98 | $113.79 | -2.77% | Stop | |
| 2022-01-07 | 2022-02-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-12-29 | 2022-01-07 | Completed | 100% | $131.04 | $114.14 | -12.94% | Stop | |
| 2021-12-06 | 2021-12-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-05-27 | 2021-12-06 | Completed | 100% | $96.19 | $120.32 | 25.01% | Stop | |
| 2021-05-05 | 2021-05-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-29 | 2021-05-05 | Completed | 100% | $97.89 | $97.84 | -0.11% | Stop | |
| 2021-03-05 | 2021-03-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-31 | 2021-03-05 | Completed | 100% | $57.92 | $99.25 | 71.27% | Stop | |
| 2020-03-09 | 2020-03-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-11-14 | 2020-03-09 | Completed | 100% | $50.55 | $58.88 | 16.41% | Stop | |
| 2019-10-23 | 2019-11-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-08-28 | 2019-10-23 | Completed | 100% | $52.35 | $43.26 | -17.41% | Stop | |
| 2019-08-06 | 2019-08-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-14 | 2019-08-06 | Completed | 100% | $36.91 | $52.33 | 41.72% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-20 | 2018-12-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-11-20 | Completed | 100% | $36.97 | $29.80 | -19.45% | Stop | |
| 2018-10-11 | 2018-11-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-02-24 | 2018-10-11 | Completed | 100% | $18.32 | $34.57 | 88.61% | Stop | |
| 2016-10-18 | 2017-02-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-07-21 | 2016-10-18 | Completed | 100% | $14.48 | $15.28 | 5.46% | Signal | |
| 2016-06-28 | 2016-07-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-08 | 2016-06-28 | Completed | 100% | $10.18 | $13.00 | 27.59% | Stop | |
| 2016-01-14 | 2016-02-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-09-16 | 2016-01-14 | Completed | 100% | $14.88 | $15.45 | 3.74% | Stop | |
| 2015-08-24 | 2015-09-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-05-12 | 2015-08-24 | Completed | 100% | $14.60 | $13.19 | -9.68% | Stop | |
| 2015-04-20 | 2015-05-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-09-17 | 2015-04-20 | Completed | 100% | $11.96 | $14.72 | 23.02% | Stop | |
| 2014-09-15 | 2014-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |