NOW
ServiceNow Inc
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for NOW (ServiceNow Inc) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -42.0% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -64.5%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.4%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 19.5%. The strategy executed 24 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
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NOW Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | -8.65% | -50.44% | 0.75% | -3.31% | 13.22% | 20.99% | 10.40% | 19.48% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.17 | -1.31 | 0.03 | -0.08 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| Max Drawdown | -12.25% | -58.34% | -41.94% | -64.54% | -41.96% | -64.54% | -41.96% | -64.54% |
| % Time Invested | 4.4% | 100.0% | 50.0% | 100.0% | 66.2% | 100.0% | 64.9% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-06-26 | 2025-08-08 | Completed | 100% | $201.44 | $175.68 | -12.83% | Stop | |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-06-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.94% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-02 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 100% | $158.94 | $137.60 | -13.47% | Signal | |
| 2025-03-11 | 2025-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-02-25 | 2025-03-11 | Completed | 100% | $184.74 | $160.00 | -13.44% | Stop | |
| 2025-01-31 | 2025-02-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-06-25 | 2025-01-31 | Completed | 100% | $149.00 | $206.40 | 38.46% | Stop | |
| 2024-05-31 | 2024-06-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-05-20 | 2024-05-31 | Completed | 100% | $152.71 | $130.36 | -14.68% | Stop | |
| 2024-04-26 | 2024-05-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-04 | 2024-04-26 | Completed | 100% | $95.09 | $144.75 | 52.15% | Stop | |
| 2023-03-13 | 2023-04-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-03-13 | Completed | 100% | $84.16 | $82.59 | -1.91% | Stop | |
| 2022-08-23 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.56% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-08-09 | 2022-08-23 | Completed | 100% | $98.46 | $92.00 | -6.61% | Stop | |
| 2022-02-17 | 2022-08-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.56% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-01 | 2022-02-17 | Completed | 100% | $116.98 | $116.82 | -0.19% | Signal | |
| 2022-01-07 | 2022-02-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-12-29 | 2022-01-07 | Completed | 100% | $131.04 | $114.14 | -12.94% | Stop | |
| 2021-12-06 | 2021-12-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-06-25 | 2021-12-06 | Completed | 100% | $111.05 | $120.32 | 8.29% | Stop | |
| 2021-05-05 | 2021-06-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-29 | 2021-05-05 | Completed | 100% | $97.89 | $97.84 | -0.11% | Stop | |
| 2021-03-05 | 2021-03-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-31 | 2021-03-05 | Completed | 100% | $57.92 | $99.25 | 71.27% | Stop | |
| 2020-03-09 | 2020-03-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-12-30 | 2020-03-09 | Completed | 100% | $57.26 | $58.88 | 2.78% | Stop | |
| 2019-10-23 | 2019-12-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.29% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-08-28 | 2019-10-23 | Completed | 100% | $52.35 | $43.26 | -17.41% | Stop | |
| 2019-08-06 | 2019-08-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-02-05 | 2019-08-06 | Completed | 100% | $45.20 | $52.33 | 15.72% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-20 | 2019-02-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.47% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-11-20 | Completed | 100% | $36.97 | $29.80 | -19.45% | Stop | |
| 2018-10-11 | 2018-11-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-28 | 2018-10-11 | Completed | 100% | $15.35 | $34.57 | 125.07% | Stop | |
| 2016-12-05 | 2016-12-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-08-09 | 2016-12-05 | Completed | 100% | $14.96 | $15.47 | 3.30% | Stop | |
| 2016-02-16 | 2016-08-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-08 | 2016-02-16 | Completed | 100% | $10.18 | $10.12 | -0.70% | Signal | |
| 2016-01-14 | 2016-02-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-11-17 | 2016-01-14 | Completed | 100% | $16.88 | $15.45 | -8.54% | Stop | |
| 2015-09-29 | 2015-11-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-09-16 | 2015-09-29 | Completed | 100% | $14.88 | $13.79 | -7.36% | Signal | |
| 2015-08-24 | 2015-09-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-05-12 | 2015-08-24 | Completed | 100% | $14.60 | $13.19 | -9.68% | Stop | |
| 2015-04-20 | 2015-05-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-09-17 | 2015-04-20 | Completed | 100% | $11.96 | $14.72 | 23.02% | Stop | |
| 2014-09-15 | 2014-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |