PGR
Progressive Corp
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for PGR (Progressive Corp) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -55.7% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -71.0%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.3%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 19.4%. The strategy executed 67 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
PGR Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | -0.09% | -7.95% | 16.71% | 20.38% | 14.56% | 23.97% | 11.30% | 19.39% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.01 | -0.32 | 0.76 | 0.73 | 0.66 | 0.87 | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| Max Drawdown | -10.46% | -19.79% | -18.43% | -30.35% | -35.30% | -30.35% | -55.67% | -71.05% |
| % Time Invested | 19.1% | 100.0% | 71.5% | 100.0% | 77.4% | 100.0% | 69.0% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-11-17 | 2026-01-20 | Completed | 100% | $213.52 | $200.45 | -6.17% | Stop | |
| 2025-08-06 | 2025-11-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-06 | Completed | 100% | $226.13 | $229.58 | 1.48% | Signal | |
| 2025-07-11 | 2025-08-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-10-06 | 2025-07-11 | Completed | 100% | $130.62 | $232.95 | 78.24% | Stop | |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-10-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.47% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-05-25 | 2023-06-30 | Completed | 100% | $119.70 | $120.98 | 1.02% | Signal | |
| 2023-05-03 | 2023-05-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-12-29 | 2023-05-03 | Completed | 100% | $93.99 | $115.92 | 23.26% | Stop | |
| 2021-10-01 | 2021-12-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-07-13 | 2021-10-01 | Completed | 100% | $89.06 | $81.14 | -8.94% | Signal | |
| 2021-06-18 | 2021-07-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-06 | 2021-06-18 | Completed | 100% | $66.03 | $81.13 | 22.81% | Stop | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-02-14 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 100% | $71.13 | $62.28 | -12.48% | Stop | |
| 2019-10-28 | 2020-02-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.46% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-10-08 | 2019-10-28 | Completed | 100% | $61.88 | $57.02 | -7.91% | Signal | |
| 2019-09-16 | 2019-10-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-02-11 | 2019-09-16 | Completed | 100% | $56.04 | $59.65 | 6.39% | Stop | |
| 2019-01-17 | 2019-02-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-21 | 2019-01-17 | Completed | 100% | $46.99 | $49.12 | 4.48% | Signal | |
| 2018-11-28 | 2018-12-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-21 | 2018-11-28 | Completed | 100% | $27.06 | $48.97 | 80.86% | Stop | |
| 2016-10-04 | 2016-12-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-09-23 | 2016-10-04 | Completed | 100% | $18.14 | $23.59 | 30.01% | Signal | |
| 2014-08-28 | 2014-09-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-06-16 | 2014-08-28 | Completed | 100% | $18.18 | $17.82 | -2.06% | Signal | |
| 2014-02-13 | 2014-06-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-11-07 | 2014-02-13 | Completed | 100% | $14.12 | $16.78 | 18.83% | Signal | |
| 2012-08-09 | 2012-11-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-08-06 | 2012-08-09 | Completed | 100% | $12.40 | $12.51 | 0.82% | Signal | |
| 2012-07-13 | 2012-08-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-02-09 | 2012-07-13 | Completed | 100% | $13.55 | $12.39 | -8.59% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-05 | 2012-02-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-07-31 | 2011-08-05 | Completed | 100% | $9.01 | $11.71 | 29.82% | Stop | |
| 2009-07-09 | 2009-07-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-05-22 | 2009-07-09 | Completed | 100% | $9.24 | $8.44 | -8.76% | Stop | |
| 2008-09-30 | 2009-05-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-09-12 | 2008-09-30 | Completed | 100% | $9.83 | $9.15 | -6.96% | Signal | |
| 2008-08-20 | 2008-09-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-06-12 | 2008-08-20 | Completed | 100% | $11.80 | $10.38 | -12.04% | Stop | |
| 2007-07-18 | 2008-06-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.60% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-07-10 | 2007-07-18 | Completed | 100% | $12.38 | $11.63 | -6.14% | Signal | |
| 2006-03-23 | 2007-07-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.06 | 6.45% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-02-22 | 2006-03-23 | Completed | 100% | $13.89 | $13.69 | -1.49% | Signal | |
| 2006-01-30 | 2006-02-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-02-15 | 2006-01-30 | Completed | 100% | $11.33 | $13.61 | 20.10% | Stop | |
| 2005-01-24 | 2005-02-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-10-29 | 2005-01-24 | Completed | 100% | $12.08 | $10.80 | -10.63% | Stop | |
| 2004-07-20 | 2004-10-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.46% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-08-27 | 2004-07-20 | Completed | 100% | $9.03 | $9.99 | 10.50% | Stop | |
| 2003-08-05 | 2003-08-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-03-24 | 2003-08-05 | Completed | 100% | $7.78 | $8.41 | 8.05% | Stop | |
| 2002-12-30 | 2003-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-12-06 | 2002-12-30 | Completed | 100% | $6.97 | $6.42 | -8.01% | Signal | |
| 2002-08-28 | 2002-12-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.42% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-08-07 | 2002-08-28 | Completed | 100% | $6.38 | $7.02 | 10.08% | Signal | |
| 2002-07-16 | 2002-08-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-10-16 | 2002-07-16 | Completed | 100% | $6.22 | $6.55 | 5.35% | Stop | |
| 2001-09-24 | 2001-10-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-04-11 | 2001-09-24 | Completed | 100% | $4.06 | $5.03 | 23.94% | Stop | |
| 2001-03-20 | 2001-04-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-01-30 | 2001-03-20 | Completed | 100% | $4.02 | $3.80 | -5.44% | Stop | |
| 2001-01-05 | 2001-01-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-11-06 | 2001-01-05 | Completed | 100% | $3.91 | $3.92 | 0.36% | Stop | |
| 2000-10-13 | 2000-11-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.39% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-08-15 | 2000-10-13 | Completed | 100% | $3.25 | $3.05 | -6.19% | Stop | |
| 2000-07-24 | 2000-08-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.39% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-07-13 | 2000-07-24 | Completed | 100% | $3.28 | $2.68 | -18.36% | Stop | |
| 2000-06-20 | 2000-07-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-06-08 | 2000-06-20 | Completed | 100% | $3.73 | $3.50 | -6.18% | Stop | |
| 1999-07-30 | 2000-06-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 4.65% | Interest Income | |
| 1999-04-23 | 1999-07-30 | Completed | 100% | $5.77 | $5.39 | -6.58% | Stop | |
| 1999-03-31 | 1999-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 1999-02-19 | 1999-03-31 | Completed | 100% | $5.42 | $6.15 | 13.43% | Signal | |
| 1999-01-27 | 1999-02-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income | |
| 1998-10-20 | 1999-01-27 | Completed | 100% | $5.53 | $5.43 | -2.01% | Stop | |
| 1998-09-01 | 1998-10-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.59% | Interest Income | |
| 1998-08-19 | 1998-09-01 | Completed | 100% | $4.87 | $4.12 | -15.49% | Stop | |
| 1998-07-28 | 1998-08-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income | |
| 1996-06-18 | 1998-07-28 | Completed | 100% | $1.98 | $5.47 | 176.41% | Stop | |
| 1996-05-06 | 1996-06-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.60% | Interest Income | |
| 1996-04-29 | 1996-05-06 | Completed | 100% | $1.95 | $1.88 | -3.29% | Signal | |
| 1996-04-04 | 1996-04-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income | |
| 1995-01-05 | 1996-04-04 | Completed | 100% | $1.46 | $1.80 | 22.87% | Stop | |
| 1994-12-12 | 1995-01-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income | |
| 1994-08-15 | 1994-12-12 | Completed | 100% | $1.57 | $1.35 | -14.35% | Stop | |
| 1994-01-28 | 1994-08-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.13% | Interest Income | |
| 1993-12-16 | 1994-01-28 | Completed | 100% | $1.64 | $1.33 | -18.45% | Stop | |
| 1993-11-23 | 1993-12-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 1993-06-10 | 1993-11-23 | Completed | 100% | $1.21 | $1.63 | 35.31% | Stop | |
| 1993-05-18 | 1993-06-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 1993-03-11 | 1993-05-18 | Completed | 100% | $1.40 | $1.23 | -11.90% | Stop | |
| 1993-02-17 | 1993-03-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income | |
| 1992-03-25 | 1993-02-17 | Completed | 100% | $0.66 | $1.24 | 87.70% | Stop | |
| 1991-11-19 | 1992-03-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.39% | Interest Income | |
| 1991-11-06 | 1991-11-19 | Completed | 100% | $0.73 | $0.69 | -5.65% | Stop | |
| 1991-08-14 | 1991-11-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.21% | Interest Income | |
| 1991-07-23 | 1991-08-14 | Completed | 100% | $0.72 | $0.70 | -3.57% | Signal | |
| 1991-06-28 | 1991-07-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income | |
| 1990-10-22 | 1991-06-28 | Completed | 100% | $0.60 | $0.72 | 19.19% | Stop | |
| 1990-09-28 | 1990-10-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.45% | Interest Income | |
| 1990-06-15 | 1990-09-28 | Completed | 100% | $0.57 | $0.57 | -0.42% | Stop | |
| 1990-03-15 | 1990-06-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.98% | Interest Income | |
| 1990-02-16 | 1990-03-15 | Completed | 100% | $0.46 | $0.47 | 2.46% | Signal | |
| 1990-01-25 | 1990-02-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.49% | Interest Income | |
| 1989-06-02 | 1990-01-25 | Completed | 100% | $0.36 | $0.48 | 31.64% | Stop | |
| 1989-05-10 | 1989-06-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1989-04-04 | 1989-05-10 | Completed | 100% | $0.41 | $0.37 | -10.05% | Stop | |
| 1988-10-25 | 1989-04-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.35% | Interest Income | |
| 1988-07-01 | 1988-10-25 | Completed | 100% | $0.41 | $0.35 | -14.56% | Stop | |
| 1988-03-31 | 1988-07-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.93% | Interest Income | |
| 1988-02-02 | 1988-03-31 | Completed | 100% | $0.37 | $0.35 | -4.56% | Stop | |
| 1987-12-08 | 1988-02-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.14% | Interest Income | |
| 1987-11-11 | 1987-12-08 | Completed | 100% | $0.38 | $0.36 | -4.02% | Signal | |
| 1987-10-20 | 1987-11-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1987-08-31 | 1987-10-20 | Completed | 100% | $0.43 | $0.34 | -21.31% | Stop | |
| 1986-12-24 | 1987-08-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 5.28% | Interest Income | |
| 1986-12-01 | 1986-12-24 | Completed | 100% | $0.39 | $0.39 | 0.78% | Signal | |
| 1986-11-06 | 1986-12-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1986-10-09 | 1986-11-06 | Completed | 100% | $0.45 | $0.38 | -15.65% | Stop | |
| 1986-09-17 | 1986-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1985-10-22 | 1986-09-17 | Completed | 100% | $0.21 | $0.41 | 98.34% | Stop | |
| 1985-09-30 | 1985-10-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1984-11-21 | 1985-09-30 | Completed | 100% | $0.12 | $0.20 | 63.98% | Stop | |
| 1984-10-30 | 1984-11-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1984-09-12 | 1984-10-30 | Completed | 100% | $0.14 | $0.12 | -9.20% | Stop | |
| 1984-01-31 | 1984-09-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 4.78% | Interest Income | |
| 1983-05-09 | 1984-01-31 | Completed | 100% | $0.11 | $0.13 | 11.61% | Stop | |
| 1983-04-15 | 1983-05-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1982-11-19 | 1983-04-15 | Completed | 100% | $0.08 | $0.10 | 18.26% | Stop | |
| 1982-10-28 | 1982-11-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1982-05-28 | 1982-10-28 | Completed | 100% | $0.09 | $0.09 | -0.05% | Stop | |
| 1982-05-26 | 1982-05-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |