SCHA Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SCHA (Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -27.0% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -42.4%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.6%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 11.9%. The strategy executed 42 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
SCHA Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 32.12% | 41.89% | 3.57% | 7.05% | 6.73% | 11.22% | 7.64% | 11.90% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.71 | 1.95 | 0.25 | 0.31 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| Max Drawdown | -9.51% | -9.51% | -22.97% | -30.79% | -27.01% | -42.41% | -27.01% | -42.41% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 85.2% | 100.0% | 88.8% | 100.0% | 91.2% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-07 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $28.23 | $34.05 | 20.64% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-07-18 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $26.07 | $34.05 | 30.59% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-04-02 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $22.88 | $34.05 | 48.84% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-10-07 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.96% | Interest Income |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-07-18 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.80% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-21 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-02 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-05-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.31 | $24.07 | 7.88% | Signal |
| 2025-03-04 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.41% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.64% | Interest Income |
| 2025-03-26 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.10 | $20.08 | -16.68% | Stop |
| 2025-03-11 | 2025-04-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.29% | Interest Income |
| 2025-03-04 | 2025-03-26 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income |
| 2024-04-02 | 2025-03-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.47 | $23.21 | -1.09% | Stop |
| 2024-07-29 | 2025-03-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $25.16 | $23.93 | -4.90% | Stop |
| 2024-02-16 | 2025-03-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.93 | $23.93 | 4.37% | Stop |
| 2024-07-05 | 2024-07-29 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2024-01-16 | 2024-07-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.99 | $22.98 | 4.52% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-04-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.06 | 5.69% | Interest Income |
| 2023-09-29 | 2024-02-16 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.62% | Interest Income |
| 2023-10-30 | 2024-01-16 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.39% | Interest Income |
| 2023-10-26 | 2023-10-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.62 | $18.58 | -0.23% | Signal |
| 2023-10-04 | 2023-10-26 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income |
| 2023-07-28 | 2023-10-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.90 | $19.38 | -11.52% | Stop |
| 2023-09-21 | 2023-09-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.16 | $20.22 | 0.29% | Signal |
| 2023-08-29 | 2023-09-21 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.42% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-05 | 2023-08-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.65 | $20.89 | 6.32% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-07-28 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.02% | Interest Income |
| 2023-05-08 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-05 | 2023-05-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.65 | $19.68 | 0.15% | Signal |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-04-05 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-04-05 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2023-03-14 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.23% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2023-01-23 | 2023-03-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.63 | $19.85 | -3.80% | Stop |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-01-23 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.10% | Interest Income |
| 2022-11-10 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-07 | 2022-11-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.78 | $19.83 | 5.62% | Signal |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-10-07 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-20 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.28% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-06-02 | 2022-09-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.24 | $19.49 | -3.69% | Signal |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-05-10 | 2022-06-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2022-02-15 | 2022-05-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.20 | $19.46 | -12.37% | Stop |
| 2022-02-23 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-20 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2022-02-11 | 2022-02-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.40 | $21.66 | -3.28% | Signal |
| 2022-01-24 | 2022-02-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-20 | 2022-02-11 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-02-04 | 2022-01-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.55 | $21.21 | -5.92% | Stop |
| 2021-10-25 | 2022-01-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.60 | $22.48 | -8.60% | Stop |
| 2020-10-01 | 2022-01-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $15.94 | $22.48 | 41.07% | Stop |
| 2021-09-28 | 2021-10-25 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2020-06-29 | 2021-09-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $14.68 | $24.17 | 64.67% | Signal |
| 2020-12-02 | 2021-02-04 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income |
| 2020-11-03 | 2020-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-11-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.09% | Interest Income |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-10-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.13% | Interest Income |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-06-29 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.58% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-09 | 2020-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-30 | 2020-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-09 | 2020-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-04-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $10.77 | $12.70 | 17.92% | Signal |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-03-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $10.77 | $11.78 | 9.36% | Signal |
| 2020-03-03 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-03 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2019-12-26 | 2020-03-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.47 | $13.94 | -20.22% | Stop |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2019-11-15 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.68 | $15.52 | -6.95% | Stop |
| 2019-07-10 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.41 | $15.52 | -5.41% | Stop |
| 2019-08-07 | 2019-12-26 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.20% | Interest Income |
| 2019-08-02 | 2019-11-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.92% | Interest Income |
| 2019-01-17 | 2019-08-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $14.79 | $15.58 | 5.34% | Signal |
| 2019-02-20 | 2019-08-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.13 | $16.16 | 0.16% | Signal |
| 2019-06-03 | 2019-07-10 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income |
| 2019-02-20 | 2019-06-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.13 | $15.23 | -5.63% | Stop |
| 2018-12-20 | 2019-02-20 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.42% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-04 | 2019-02-20 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.54% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-24 | 2019-01-17 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-20 | 2018-12-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $15.00 | $13.10 | -12.69% | Stop |
| 2018-11-15 | 2018-12-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $15.15 | $13.68 | -9.69% | Stop |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-11-20 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-11-15 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2018-10-29 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2018-10-24 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2018-10-24 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2016-11-15 | 2018-10-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.95 | $15.17 | 17.08% | Stop |
| 2016-07-21 | 2018-10-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.29 | $15.41 | 25.45% | Stop |
| 2016-05-04 | 2018-10-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $11.40 | $15.41 | 35.24% | Stop |
| 2016-11-02 | 2016-11-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2016-10-04 | 2016-11-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2016-04-22 | 2016-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.93% | Interest Income |
| 2016-04-04 | 2016-07-21 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.76% | Interest Income |
| 2016-04-04 | 2016-05-04 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-09 | 2016-04-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $9.64 | $11.56 | 19.98% | Signal |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-02-09 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2016-01-15 | 2016-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2015-11-10 | 2016-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income |
| 2015-11-03 | 2016-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-17 | 2016-01-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $11.69 | $9.98 | -14.63% | Stop |
| 2015-09-17 | 2015-11-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $11.69 | $11.70 | 0.13% | Signal |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-11-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2014-12-29 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $11.90 | $11.43 | -3.99% | Stop |
| 2012-06-27 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $7.00 | $11.43 | 63.16% | Stop |
| 2011-10-27 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $6.89 | $11.43 | 65.80% | Stop |
| 2014-12-02 | 2014-12-29 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2014-11-04 | 2014-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2014-10-17 | 2014-11-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2012-09-07 | 2014-10-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $7.75 | $10.74 | 38.55% | Signal |
| 2012-07-03 | 2012-09-07 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.80% | Interest Income |
| 2012-06-05 | 2012-07-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2012-06-05 | 2012-06-27 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2012-03-21 | 2012-06-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $7.61 | $6.69 | -12.02% | Stop |
| 2011-12-29 | 2012-06-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $6.67 | $6.69 | 0.27% | Stop |
| 2012-01-04 | 2012-03-21 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.14% | Interest Income |
| 2011-12-02 | 2012-01-03 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2011-12-02 | 2011-12-29 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2011-10-25 | 2011-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2011-10-25 | 2011-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2011-10-25 | 2011-10-27 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |