SCHA
Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SCHA (Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -28.1% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -42.4%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.1%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 11.8%. The strategy executed 11 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
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SCHA Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 32.51% | 31.07% | 2.31% | 7.63% | 5.93% | 10.72% | 7.12% | 11.76% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.49 | 1.43 | 0.15 | 0.34 | 0.38 | 0.45 | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| Max Drawdown | -9.51% | -9.51% | -28.09% | -30.79% | -28.09% | -42.41% | -28.09% | -42.41% |
| % Time Invested | 98.0% | 100.0% | 64.5% | 100.0% | 74.1% | 100.0% | 74.6% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-04-02 | 2025-07-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.40% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-27 | 2025-04-02 | Completed | 100% | $23.73 | $22.81 | -3.91% | Signal | |
| 2025-03-05 | 2025-03-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-12-28 | 2025-03-05 | Completed | 100% | $23.14 | $23.88 | 3.14% | Stop | |
| 2023-10-18 | 2023-12-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-06-22 | 2023-10-18 | Completed | 100% | $20.57 | $19.66 | -4.48% | Signal | |
| 2023-05-03 | 2023-06-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-19 | 2023-05-03 | Completed | 100% | $19.85 | $19.37 | -2.50% | Signal | |
| 2023-03-27 | 2023-04-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-03-27 | Completed | 100% | $20.76 | $19.42 | -6.49% | Stop | |
| 2022-01-21 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.26% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-08-10 | 2022-01-21 | Completed | 100% | $16.50 | $21.79 | 31.98% | Stop | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-08-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-11-06 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 100% | $16.60 | $15.48 | -6.82% | Stop | |
| 2019-10-15 | 2019-11-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-02-20 | 2019-10-15 | Completed | 100% | $16.09 | $15.73 | -2.27% | Signal | |
| 2018-10-25 | 2019-02-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.74% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-05-10 | 2018-10-25 | Completed | 100% | $11.42 | $14.89 | 30.29% | Stop | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2016-05-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-12-17 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 100% | $11.14 | $11.39 | 2.27% | Stop | |
| 2014-10-20 | 2014-12-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-02-08 | 2014-10-20 | Completed | 100% | $7.49 | $10.58 | 41.22% | Signal | |
| 2011-10-25 | 2012-02-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |