SCHD Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SCHD (Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -15.5% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -33.4%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.1%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 12.2%. The strategy executed 30 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
SCHD Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 24.15% | 28.91% | 6.62% | 8.65% | 12.16% | 12.88% | 11.06% | 12.17% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.59 | 2.34 | 0.66 | 0.58 | 1.01 | 0.73 | 0.94 | 0.72 |
| Max Drawdown | -4.61% | -4.61% | -11.05% | -16.84% | -15.54% | -33.37% | -15.54% | -33.37% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 90.0% | 100.0% | 94.0% | 100.0% | 94.7% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $28.33 | $32.50 | 14.72% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-11-26 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $26.79 | $32.50 | 21.33% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-05-01 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $24.74 | $32.50 | 31.34% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-12-09 | 2026-01-12 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.40% | Interest Income |
| 2025-08-14 | 2025-12-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.52 | $27.06 | 2.03% | Signal |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-11-26 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.57% | Interest Income |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-08-14 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.18% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-21 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-02 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-01 | 2025-05-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.74 | $25.37 | 2.53% | Signal |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.21% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.21% | Interest Income |
| 2025-02-19 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.57% | Interest Income |
| 2024-05-13 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.57 | $24.49 | -0.32% | Stop |
| 2024-02-09 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.60 | $24.49 | 3.77% | Stop |
| 2024-07-29 | 2025-02-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $25.76 | $26.67 | 3.54% | Signal |
| 2024-07-05 | 2024-07-29 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2024-01-22 | 2024-07-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.52 | $24.11 | 2.54% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-05-13 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.07 | 6.52% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-20 | 2024-02-09 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 4.19% | Interest Income |
| 2023-11-02 | 2024-01-22 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.42% | Interest Income |
| 2023-08-17 | 2023-11-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.14 | $20.81 | -6.02% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-08-17 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.38% | Interest Income |
| 2023-03-22 | 2023-06-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.40 | $21.78 | 1.77% | Signal |
| 2023-05-05 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-14 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.55% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-05-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.96 | $21.02 | -4.25% | Stop |
| 2022-12-19 | 2023-04-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.16 | $21.99 | -0.76% | Signal |
| 2023-01-13 | 2023-04-04 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.04% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-03-22 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.49% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-19 | 2023-01-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.37 | $22.88 | 12.30% | Signal |
| 2022-12-02 | 2022-12-19 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-10-19 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-27 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.30% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-01 | 2022-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $11.70 | $19.88 | 69.92% | Stop |
| 2022-06-17 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.29% | Interest Income |
| 2022-04-18 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2020-09-23 | 2022-06-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $15.04 | $20.30 | 34.91% | Stop |
| 2020-07-01 | 2022-04-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $14.14 | $22.61 | 59.83% | Signal |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-09-23 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.15% | Interest Income |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.66% | Interest Income |
| 2020-05-26 | 2020-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-27 | 2020-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-05-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $11.13 | $13.98 | 25.61% | Signal |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-03-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $11.13 | $11.86 | 6.57% | Signal |
| 2020-03-03 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-03 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2019-01-18 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.63 | $13.37 | 5.87% | Stop |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2019-06-11 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.76 | $13.85 | 0.62% | Stop |
| 2019-02-07 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.99 | $13.85 | 6.62% | Stop |
| 2019-03-18 | 2019-06-11 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.78% | Interest Income |
| 2019-01-16 | 2019-03-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.48 | $13.52 | 8.39% | Signal |
| 2018-12-18 | 2019-02-07 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-26 | 2019-01-18 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-21 | 2019-01-16 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-17 | 2018-12-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $8.59 | $11.48 | 33.56% | Stop |
| 2018-05-29 | 2018-12-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.45 | $11.90 | -4.44% | Stop |
| 2018-06-12 | 2018-12-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.89 | $12.33 | -4.32% | Signal |
| 2018-04-27 | 2018-06-12 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income |
| 2018-05-04 | 2018-05-29 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income |
| 2016-03-17 | 2018-05-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $9.43 | $11.98 | 26.99% | Stop |
| 2016-04-20 | 2018-04-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $9.69 | $12.33 | 27.25% | Signal |
| 2016-04-04 | 2016-04-20 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2016-03-29 | 2016-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-11-25 | 2016-03-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $9.24 | $9.47 | 2.53% | Signal |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-03-17 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2016-01-11 | 2016-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2015-11-25 | 2016-01-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $9.24 | $8.74 | -5.39% | Stop |
| 2015-11-03 | 2015-11-25 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2015-11-03 | 2015-11-25 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-11-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-11-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-04 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2013-10-17 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $7.62 | $8.51 | 11.76% | Stop |
| 2013-10-17 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $7.62 | $8.51 | 11.76% | Stop |
| 2015-07-16 | 2015-08-03 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2013-10-17 | 2015-07-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $7.62 | $9.15 | 20.18% | Signal |
| 2013-10-15 | 2013-10-17 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2013-10-15 | 2013-10-17 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2013-10-15 | 2013-10-17 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |