SCHX Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SCHX (Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -18.2% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -34.3%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.7%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 15.1%. The strategy executed 29 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
SCHX Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 22.20% | 29.02% | 9.42% | 13.49% | 14.48% | 15.49% | 13.69% | 15.07% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.80 | 2.13 | 0.76 | 0.74 | 1.06 | 0.79 | 1.05 | 0.83 |
| Max Drawdown | -9.03% | -9.03% | -18.24% | -25.40% | -18.24% | -34.33% | -18.24% | -34.33% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 91.6% | 100.0% | 94.9% | 100.0% | 96.0% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $29.18 | $29.76 | 1.99% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-09-10 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $25.70 | $29.76 | 15.81% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-04-30 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $21.39 | $29.76 | 39.13% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-04 | 2026-05-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2026-04-02 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-01 | 2026-04-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.89 | $25.50 | 16.47% | Signal |
| 2025-07-21 | 2025-09-10 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.62% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-07-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.39 | $24.70 | 15.46% | Signal |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.64% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.64% | Interest Income |
| 2023-11-08 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.70 | $19.06 | 14.14% | Stop |
| 2023-04-21 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $15.59 | $19.06 | 22.24% | Stop |
| 2024-01-03 | 2025-03-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.08 | $21.45 | 18.66% | Signal |
| 2023-11-06 | 2024-01-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.98% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-11-08 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.75% | Interest Income |
| 2023-01-31 | 2023-11-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $15.16 | $16.61 | 9.56% | Signal |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-04-21 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-01-31 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.32% | Interest Income |
| 2022-11-07 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-24 | 2022-11-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $14.13 | $14.19 | 0.45% | Signal |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-10-24 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-06-02 | 2022-09-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $15.28 | $13.63 | -10.81% | Stop |
| 2022-05-10 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-05-10 | 2022-06-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-21 | 2022-05-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.71 | $15.07 | -9.80% | Stop |
| 2020-04-01 | 2022-05-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $9.01 | $15.07 | 67.36% | Stop |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-03-21 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2022-02-25 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2022-02-25 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2020-08-11 | 2022-02-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.42 | $16.12 | 29.82% | Stop |
| 2020-06-25 | 2022-02-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $11.16 | $16.12 | 44.40% | Stop |
| 2020-06-29 | 2020-08-11 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-06-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $8.56 | $11.10 | 29.78% | Signal |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-06-25 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.62% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-09 | 2020-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-04-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $8.56 | $10.10 | 18.03% | Signal |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-03 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-03 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2019-01-16 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $9.29 | $10.33 | 11.20% | Stop |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2019-04-08 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $10.32 | $10.84 | 5.00% | Stop |
| 2019-03-28 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $10.04 | $10.84 | 7.96% | Stop |
| 2019-03-04 | 2019-04-08 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.42% | Interest Income |
| 2019-03-04 | 2019-03-28 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income |
| 2019-02-12 | 2019-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-04 | 2019-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.61% | Interest Income |
| 2019-01-11 | 2019-02-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $9.19 | $9.72 | 5.86% | Signal |
| 2018-12-21 | 2019-01-16 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-18 | 2019-01-11 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-17 | 2018-12-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $6.69 | $8.76 | 30.95% | Stop |
| 2016-07-08 | 2018-12-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $7.12 | $9.09 | 27.66% | Stop |
| 2018-12-03 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2018-07-10 | 2018-12-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $9.84 | $9.92 | 0.78% | Signal |
| 2018-05-22 | 2018-07-10 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2016-05-03 | 2018-05-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $6.94 | $9.63 | 38.62% | Signal |
| 2016-04-04 | 2016-07-08 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.72% | Interest Income |
| 2016-04-04 | 2016-05-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-23 | 2016-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-12 | 2016-02-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $6.19 | $6.50 | 5.14% | Signal |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-02-12 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2016-01-21 | 2016-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income |
| 2015-11-05 | 2016-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2015-12-18 | 2016-01-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $6.83 | $6.25 | -8.57% | Stop |
| 2015-11-03 | 2015-12-18 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-17 | 2015-11-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $6.69 | $7.05 | 5.32% | Signal |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-11-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2012-08-31 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $4.42 | $6.60 | 49.25% | Stop |
| 2012-03-09 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $4.28 | $6.60 | 54.26% | Stop |
| 2011-10-27 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $3.95 | $6.60 | 67.36% | Stop |
| 2012-07-10 | 2012-08-31 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.74% | Interest Income |
| 2011-12-23 | 2012-07-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $3.91 | $4.26 | 9.13% | Signal |
| 2012-01-04 | 2012-03-09 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2011-12-02 | 2012-01-03 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2011-12-02 | 2011-12-23 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2011-10-25 | 2011-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2011-10-25 | 2011-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2011-10-25 | 2011-10-27 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |