SCHX
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SCHX (Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -20.5% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -34.3%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12.0%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 14.8%. The strategy executed 7 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
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SCHX Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 17.29% | 17.29% | 10.25% | 11.82% | 13.14% | 14.84% | 11.98% | 14.75% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.25 | 1.25 | 0.76 | 0.65 | 0.96 | 0.76 | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| Max Drawdown | -9.03% | -9.03% | -20.54% | -25.40% | -20.54% | -34.33% | -20.54% | -34.33% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 80.8% | 100.0% | 84.4% | 100.0% | 83.8% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.29% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-02-01 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 100% | $15.29 | $19.01 | 24.23% | Stop | |
| 2022-03-11 | 2023-02-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.40% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-06 | 2022-03-11 | Completed | 100% | $11.63 | $15.97 | 37.20% | Signal | |
| 2020-04-01 | 2020-07-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-04-01 | Completed | 100% | $8.53 | $8.98 | 5.22% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-03-26 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 100% | $10.03 | $10.81 | 7.72% | Stop | |
| 2018-12-12 | 2019-03-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.67% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-04-26 | 2018-12-12 | Completed | 100% | $7.00 | $9.44 | 34.76% | Signal | |
| 2016-01-14 | 2016-04-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-12-15 | 2016-01-14 | Completed | 100% | $6.82 | $6.35 | -6.96% | Signal | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-12-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-01-26 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 100% | $4.14 | $6.59 | 59.14% | Stop | |
| 2011-10-25 | 2012-01-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |