SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) using the Excess Return SMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -40.7% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -67.9%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 14.0%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 15.9%. The strategy executed 37 total trades.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA Active
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
SMH Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 54.39% | 95.69% | 17.94% | 35.15% | 24.84% | 34.80% | 14.01% | 15.87% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.24 | 1.80 | 0.54 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.90 | 0.57 | 0.47 |
| Max Drawdown | -14.93% | -16.80% | -37.26% | -45.30% | -37.26% | -45.30% | -40.73% | -67.86% |
| % Time Invested | 88.5% | 100.0% | 81.3% | 100.0% | 86.2% | 100.0% | 73.6% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-29 | 2026-03-31 | Completed | 100% | $208.68 | $368.74 | 76.61% | Stop | |
| 2025-04-04 | 2025-04-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-25 | 2025-04-04 | Completed | 100% | $229.74 | $188.11 | -18.16% | Stop | |
| 2025-03-03 | 2025-03-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-19 | 2025-03-03 | Completed | 100% | $243.95 | $234.64 | -3.86% | Stop | |
| 2024-07-26 | 2024-08-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-05-14 | 2024-07-26 | Completed | 100% | $221.27 | $240.40 | 8.59% | Stop | |
| 2024-04-22 | 2024-05-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-11-22 | 2024-04-22 | Completed | 100% | $161.06 | $199.46 | 23.78% | Stop | |
| 2023-10-31 | 2023-11-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-10-31 | Completed | 100% | $113.04 | $136.10 | 20.34% | Stop | |
| 2022-11-09 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.79% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-11-07 | 2022-11-09 | Completed | 100% | $93.90 | $95.96 | 2.14% | Signal | |
| 2022-10-14 | 2022-11-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-27 | 2022-10-14 | Completed | 100% | $94.18 | $89.05 | -5.49% | Stop | |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-09-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-07-08 | 2022-09-02 | Completed | 100% | $99.71 | $103.66 | 3.91% | Stop | |
| 2022-06-14 | 2022-07-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-05 | 2022-06-14 | Completed | 100% | $118.29 | $104.28 | -11.89% | Stop | |
| 2022-04-12 | 2022-05-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-16 | 2022-04-12 | Completed | 100% | $134.60 | $120.05 | -10.86% | Stop | |
| 2022-01-25 | 2022-02-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-30 | 2022-01-25 | Completed | 100% | $114.81 | $130.44 | 13.55% | Stop | |
| 2021-03-08 | 2021-03-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-23 | 2021-03-08 | Completed | 100% | $49.36 | $110.39 | 123.53% | Stop | |
| 2020-02-28 | 2020-03-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-10-25 | 2020-02-28 | Completed | 100% | $59.36 | $60.03 | 1.08% | Stop | |
| 2019-10-03 | 2019-10-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-06-13 | 2019-10-03 | Completed | 100% | $50.06 | $55.24 | 10.30% | Signal | |
| 2019-05-21 | 2019-06-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-18 | 2019-05-21 | Completed | 100% | $43.41 | $49.09 | 13.03% | Stop | |
| 2018-12-26 | 2019-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-05 | 2018-12-26 | Completed | 100% | $44.75 | $38.82 | -13.29% | Stop | |
| 2018-10-12 | 2018-11-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-05-18 | 2018-10-12 | Completed | 100% | $48.78 | $45.75 | -6.26% | Stop | |
| 2018-04-26 | 2018-05-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-07-15 | 2018-04-26 | Completed | 100% | $27.25 | $45.83 | 68.07% | Stop | |
| 2016-06-21 | 2016-07-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-10 | 2016-06-21 | Completed | 100% | $21.34 | $26.04 | 21.94% | Signal | |
| 2016-01-19 | 2016-02-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-08-19 | 2016-01-19 | Completed | 100% | $22.39 | $21.59 | -3.60% | Stop | |
| 2015-07-28 | 2015-08-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-11-07 | 2015-07-28 | Completed | 100% | $22.92 | $22.82 | -0.47% | Stop | |
| 2014-10-16 | 2014-11-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-12-14 | 2014-10-16 | Completed | 100% | $13.81 | $19.87 | 43.85% | Stop | |
| 2012-07-18 | 2012-12-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-18 | 2012-07-18 | Completed | 100% | $13.46 | $12.71 | -5.60% | Signal | |
| 2012-05-24 | 2012-06-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-10-27 | 2012-05-24 | Completed | 100% | $13.68 | $13.30 | -2.84% | Stop | |
| 2011-10-05 | 2011-10-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-25 | 2011-10-05 | Completed | 100% | $12.09 | $11.57 | -4.30% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-03 | 2011-08-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-09-24 | 2011-08-03 | Completed | 100% | $11.40 | $13.18 | 15.54% | Stop | |
| 2010-09-01 | 2010-09-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-09-01 | Completed | 100% | $11.58 | $10.45 | -9.76% | Stop | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-07-20 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 100% | $10.13 | $11.54 | 13.81% | Stop | |
| 2008-08-21 | 2009-07-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-08-13 | 2008-08-21 | Completed | 100% | $12.98 | $12.24 | -5.80% | Stop | |
| 2006-11-01 | 2008-08-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.06 | 6.47% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-06-15 | 2006-11-01 | Completed | 100% | $13.82 | $14.47 | 4.65% | Signal | |
| 2006-05-23 | 2006-06-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-05-10 | 2006-05-23 | Completed | 100% | $13.63 | $14.71 | 7.86% | Stop | |
| 2005-03-08 | 2005-05-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.49% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-08-06 | 2005-03-08 | Completed | 100% | $13.20 | $14.58 | 10.36% | Signal | |
| 2004-07-15 | 2004-08-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-05-24 | 2004-07-15 | Completed | 100% | $15.75 | $14.04 | -10.91% | Stop | |
| 2004-04-30 | 2004-05-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-04-02 | 2004-04-30 | Completed | 100% | $17.54 | $15.29 | -12.88% | Stop | |
| 2004-03-11 | 2004-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-04-24 | 2004-03-11 | Completed | 100% | $11.51 | $16.47 | 43.05% | Stop | |
| 2002-06-03 | 2003-04-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.26% | Interest Income | |