SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -31.5% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -67.9%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.7%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 15.9%. The strategy executed 29 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
SMH Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 54.39% | 95.69% | 26.67% | 35.15% | 28.60% | 34.80% | 13.71% | 15.87% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.24 | 1.80 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| Max Drawdown | -14.93% | -16.80% | -26.99% | -45.30% | -26.99% | -45.30% | -31.51% | -67.86% |
| % Time Invested | 88.5% | 100.0% | 73.9% | 100.0% | 79.0% | 100.0% | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-07-01 | 2026-03-31 | Completed | 100% | $275.94 | $368.74 | 33.56% | Stop | |
| 2025-03-03 | 2025-07-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.42% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-19 | 2025-03-03 | Completed | 100% | $243.95 | $234.64 | -3.86% | Stop | |
| 2024-07-26 | 2024-08-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-05-14 | 2024-07-26 | Completed | 100% | $221.27 | $240.40 | 8.59% | Stop | |
| 2024-04-22 | 2024-05-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-11-22 | 2024-04-22 | Completed | 100% | $161.06 | $199.46 | 23.78% | Stop | |
| 2023-10-31 | 2023-11-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-26 | 2023-10-31 | Completed | 100% | $91.08 | $136.10 | 49.35% | Stop | |
| 2022-03-21 | 2022-10-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.24% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-16 | 2022-03-21 | Completed | 100% | $134.60 | $130.92 | -2.78% | Signal | |
| 2022-01-25 | 2022-02-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-30 | 2022-01-25 | Completed | 100% | $114.81 | $130.44 | 13.55% | Stop | |
| 2021-03-08 | 2021-03-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-04 | 2021-03-08 | Completed | 100% | $70.77 | $110.39 | 55.91% | Stop | |
| 2020-04-24 | 2020-06-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-23 | 2020-04-24 | Completed | 100% | $49.36 | $62.29 | 26.14% | Signal | |
| 2020-02-28 | 2020-03-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-06-13 | 2020-02-28 | Completed | 100% | $50.06 | $60.03 | 19.86% | Stop | |
| 2019-05-21 | 2019-06-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-03-21 | 2019-05-21 | Completed | 100% | $50.61 | $49.09 | -3.05% | Stop | |
| 2018-10-12 | 2019-03-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-05-18 | 2018-10-12 | Completed | 100% | $48.78 | $45.75 | -6.26% | Stop | |
| 2018-04-26 | 2018-05-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-04-08 | 2018-04-26 | Completed | 100% | $24.98 | $45.83 | 83.33% | Stop | |
| 2016-01-19 | 2016-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-12-14 | 2016-01-19 | Completed | 100% | $24.25 | $21.59 | -11.00% | Stop | |
| 2015-07-28 | 2015-12-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-11-07 | 2015-07-28 | Completed | 100% | $22.92 | $22.82 | -0.47% | Stop | |
| 2014-10-16 | 2014-11-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-01-15 | 2014-10-16 | Completed | 100% | $14.36 | $19.87 | 38.32% | Stop | |
| 2012-07-02 | 2013-01-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-18 | 2012-07-02 | Completed | 100% | $13.46 | $13.77 | 2.25% | Signal | |
| 2012-05-24 | 2012-06-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-02-13 | 2012-05-24 | Completed | 100% | $14.65 | $13.30 | -9.26% | Stop | |
| 2011-11-25 | 2012-02-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-10-14 | 2011-11-25 | Completed | 100% | $13.01 | $12.03 | -7.56% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-03 | 2011-10-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-11-05 | 2011-08-03 | Completed | 100% | $13.08 | $13.18 | 0.73% | Stop | |
| 2010-08-26 | 2010-11-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-08-26 | Completed | 100% | $11.58 | $10.84 | -6.39% | Signal | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-06-03 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 100% | $8.95 | $11.54 | 28.81% | Stop | |
| 2008-08-21 | 2009-06-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-08-13 | 2008-08-21 | Completed | 100% | $12.98 | $12.24 | -5.80% | Stop | |
| 2007-10-24 | 2008-08-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.74% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-12-05 | 2007-10-24 | Completed | 100% | $14.77 | $14.75 | -0.16% | Stop | |
| 2006-05-02 | 2006-12-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.96% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-03-21 | 2006-05-02 | Completed | 100% | $13.82 | $15.87 | 14.75% | Signal | |
| 2004-04-30 | 2005-03-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.63% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-04-02 | 2004-04-30 | Completed | 100% | $17.54 | $15.29 | -12.88% | Stop | |
| 2004-03-11 | 2004-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-04-24 | 2004-03-11 | Completed | 100% | $11.51 | $16.47 | 43.05% | Stop | |
| 2002-06-12 | 2003-04-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-06-05 | 2002-06-12 | Completed | 100% | $16.13 | $13.84 | -14.25% | Signal | |
| 2002-06-03 | 2002-06-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |