TMO
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for TMO (Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc) using the Excess Return SMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -65.8% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -71.2%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.0%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 15.3%. The strategy executed 62 total trades.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA Active
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
TMO Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | -10.83% | 20.08% | -6.66% | 1.72% | 8.23% | 14.06% | 8.01% | 15.32% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.80 | 0.60 | -0.38 | 0.06 | 0.39 | 0.50 | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| Max Drawdown | -17.64% | -31.38% | -44.74% | -40.95% | -44.74% | -40.95% | -65.76% | -71.16% |
| % Time Invested | 41.3% | 100.0% | 45.6% | 100.0% | 70.3% | 100.0% | 68.3% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-10-23 | 2026-02-12 | Completed | 100% | $566.35 | $525.76 | -7.21% | Stop | |
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-08-18 | 2025-09-26 | Completed | 100% | $488.35 | $459.80 | -5.89% | Stop | |
| 2025-05-12 | 2025-08-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-01 | 2025-05-12 | Completed | 100% | $423.87 | $409.22 | -3.50% | Signal | |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-27 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 100% | $511.59 | $449.06 | -12.27% | Stop | |
| 2025-03-05 | 2025-03-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-10-30 | 2025-03-05 | Completed | 100% | $544.08 | $510.06 | -6.30% | Stop | |
| 2024-07-02 | 2024-10-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.67% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-06-11 | 2024-07-02 | Completed | 100% | $574.58 | $535.60 | -6.83% | Stop | |
| 2023-03-02 | 2024-06-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.07 | 6.94% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-18 | 2023-03-02 | Completed | 100% | $524.75 | $529.03 | 0.77% | Signal | |
| 2022-09-26 | 2022-10-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-19 | 2022-09-26 | Completed | 100% | $533.26 | $510.27 | -4.36% | Stop | |
| 2022-04-27 | 2022-05-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-16 | 2022-04-27 | Completed | 100% | $545.17 | $513.85 | -5.79% | Stop | |
| 2022-01-25 | 2022-02-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-29 | 2022-01-25 | Completed | 100% | $449.90 | $561.18 | 24.67% | Stop | |
| 2021-03-05 | 2021-03-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-12-17 | 2021-03-05 | Completed | 100% | $451.48 | $438.32 | -2.96% | Stop | |
| 2020-11-24 | 2020-12-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-11-24 | Completed | 100% | $259.17 | $437.43 | 68.69% | Stop | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-18 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 100% | $235.53 | $285.97 | 21.35% | Stop | |
| 2018-12-26 | 2019-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-03-02 | 2018-12-26 | Completed | 100% | $130.77 | $206.15 | 57.57% | Stop | |
| 2016-02-08 | 2016-03-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-09-17 | 2016-02-08 | Completed | 100% | $122.47 | $118.08 | -3.64% | Stop | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-09-17 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 100% | $57.44 | $120.49 | 109.67% | Stop | |
| 2012-06-28 | 2012-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-26 | 2012-06-28 | Completed | 100% | $47.36 | $47.94 | 1.17% | Signal | |
| 2012-06-04 | 2012-06-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-12-13 | 2012-06-04 | Completed | 100% | $42.71 | $46.51 | 8.83% | Stop | |
| 2011-11-18 | 2011-12-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-26 | 2011-11-18 | Completed | 100% | $49.70 | $43.87 | -11.78% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-04 | 2011-08-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-07-27 | 2011-08-04 | Completed | 100% | $46.07 | $52.76 | 14.47% | Stop | |
| 2010-07-02 | 2010-07-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-07-20 | 2010-07-02 | Completed | 100% | $38.74 | $45.58 | 17.60% | Stop | |
| 2008-12-23 | 2009-07-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-12-17 | 2008-12-23 | Completed | 100% | $29.75 | $30.38 | 2.05% | Signal | |
| 2008-11-24 | 2008-12-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-11-17 | 2008-11-24 | Completed | 100% | $31.87 | $28.64 | -10.19% | Stop | |
| 2008-10-24 | 2008-11-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-10-17 | 2008-10-24 | Completed | 100% | $39.15 | $33.72 | -13.90% | Stop | |
| 2008-09-25 | 2008-10-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-02-14 | 2008-09-25 | Completed | 100% | $54.22 | $51.57 | -4.95% | Stop | |
| 2008-01-23 | 2008-02-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-03-16 | 2008-01-23 | Completed | 100% | $33.98 | $46.76 | 37.54% | Stop | |
| 2005-11-21 | 2006-03-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.31% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-04-12 | 2005-11-21 | Completed | 100% | $23.34 | $28.98 | 24.12% | Signal | |
| 2005-03-18 | 2005-04-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-08-18 | 2005-03-18 | Completed | 100% | $23.41 | $25.11 | 7.21% | Stop | |
| 2004-07-27 | 2004-08-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-08-25 | 2004-07-27 | Completed | 100% | $21.55 | $24.66 | 14.37% | Stop | |
| 2002-02-06 | 2003-08-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-10-15 | 2002-02-06 | Completed | 100% | $17.56 | $19.84 | 12.93% | Stop | |
| 2001-09-21 | 2001-10-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-07-13 | 2001-09-21 | Completed | 100% | $17.56 | $14.13 | -19.58% | Stop | |
| 2001-06-20 | 2001-07-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-04-05 | 2001-06-20 | Completed | 100% | $17.83 | $19.60 | 9.84% | Stop | |
| 2001-03-14 | 2001-04-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-02-02 | 2001-03-14 | Completed | 100% | $23.99 | $20.33 | -15.30% | Stop | |
| 2001-01-10 | 2001-02-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-08-07 | 2001-01-10 | Completed | 100% | $18.24 | $21.47 | 17.65% | Stop | |
| 1998-07-22 | 2000-08-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.11 | 10.62% | Interest Income | |
| 1998-07-10 | 1998-07-22 | Completed | 100% | $24.80 | $18.50 | -25.45% | Stop | |
| 1998-06-17 | 1998-07-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 1998-05-15 | 1998-06-17 | Completed | 100% | $30.54 | $25.92 | -15.18% | Stop | |
| 1997-07-10 | 1998-05-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 4.39% | Interest Income | |
| 1997-04-23 | 1997-07-10 | Completed | 100% | $25.41 | $26.63 | 4.75% | Stop | |
| 1997-04-01 | 1997-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 1997-02-21 | 1997-04-01 | Completed | 100% | $29.98 | $25.21 | -15.97% | Stop | |
| 1997-01-29 | 1997-02-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 1997-01-02 | 1997-01-29 | Completed | 100% | $32.93 | $27.95 | -15.17% | Stop | |
| 1996-12-09 | 1997-01-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income | |
| 1996-08-07 | 1996-12-09 | Completed | 100% | $31.41 | $28.76 | -8.46% | Stop | |
| 1996-07-16 | 1996-08-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 1994-04-28 | 1996-07-16 | Completed | 100% | $13.96 | $28.25 | 102.35% | Stop | |
| 1994-04-05 | 1994-04-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 1992-04-15 | 1994-04-05 | Completed | 100% | $10.48 | $14.09 | 34.37% | Stop | |
| 1992-03-24 | 1992-04-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income | |
| 1991-09-18 | 1992-03-24 | Completed | 100% | $9.46 | $9.76 | 3.12% | Stop | |
| 1991-05-20 | 1991-09-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.84% | Interest Income | |
| 1991-05-10 | 1991-05-20 | Completed | 100% | $9.43 | $8.89 | -5.78% | Stop | |
| 1991-01-18 | 1991-05-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.82% | Interest Income | |
| 1990-08-15 | 1991-01-18 | Completed | 100% | $6.07 | $6.85 | 12.81% | Signal | |
| 1990-07-24 | 1990-08-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.47% | Interest Income | |
| 1989-11-07 | 1990-07-24 | Completed | 100% | $7.78 | $7.06 | -9.31% | Stop | |
| 1989-10-16 | 1989-11-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1989-05-02 | 1989-10-16 | Completed | 100% | $5.98 | $7.15 | 19.54% | Stop | |
| 1988-02-19 | 1989-05-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.09 | 9.49% | Interest Income | |
| 1987-12-03 | 1988-02-19 | Completed | 100% | $3.27 | $3.54 | 8.20% | Signal | |
| 1987-11-10 | 1987-12-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1987-11-02 | 1987-11-10 | Completed | 100% | $3.39 | $3.21 | -5.36% | Stop | |
| 1987-10-09 | 1987-11-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1987-04-23 | 1987-10-09 | Completed | 100% | $5.29 | $5.44 | 2.79% | Stop | |
| 1987-03-31 | 1987-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1986-10-02 | 1987-03-31 | Completed | 100% | $4.55 | $5.89 | 29.45% | Stop | |
| 1986-09-10 | 1986-10-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1986-05-23 | 1986-09-10 | Completed | 100% | $4.81 | $4.55 | -5.46% | Stop | |
| 1986-05-01 | 1986-05-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1986-01-17 | 1986-05-01 | Completed | 100% | $3.56 | $4.53 | 26.90% | Stop | |
| 1985-12-24 | 1986-01-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1985-10-14 | 1985-12-24 | Completed | 100% | $3.30 | $3.18 | -3.68% | Stop | |
| 1985-09-19 | 1985-10-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1985-01-23 | 1985-09-19 | Completed | 100% | $2.23 | $3.16 | 41.85% | Stop | |
| 1984-12-06 | 1985-01-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.96% | Interest Income | |
| 1984-10-30 | 1984-12-06 | Completed | 100% | $1.92 | $1.68 | -12.54% | Signal | |
| 1984-10-08 | 1984-10-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1984-07-03 | 1984-10-08 | Completed | 100% | $1.70 | $1.95 | 14.90% | Stop | |
| 1984-06-11 | 1984-07-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1984-04-19 | 1984-06-11 | Completed | 100% | $1.80 | $1.60 | -11.16% | Stop | |
| 1984-03-28 | 1984-04-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1984-02-28 | 1984-03-28 | Completed | 100% | $1.92 | $1.63 | -15.32% | Stop | |
| 1984-02-03 | 1984-02-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1983-11-28 | 1984-02-03 | Completed | 100% | $2.05 | $2.00 | -2.22% | Stop | |
| 1983-11-03 | 1983-11-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1983-10-06 | 1983-11-03 | Completed | 100% | $1.83 | $1.61 | -12.18% | Stop | |
| 1983-09-14 | 1983-10-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1983-06-28 | 1983-09-14 | Completed | 100% | $2.26 | $1.96 | -13.43% | Stop | |
| 1982-05-26 | 1983-06-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.09 | 8.57% | Interest Income | |