TMO
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for TMO (Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -58.6% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -71.2%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 9.7%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 15.3%. The strategy executed 64 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
TMO Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | -3.72% | 20.08% | -1.01% | 1.72% | 10.65% | 14.06% | 9.69% | 15.32% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.22 | 0.60 | -0.07 | 0.06 | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| Max Drawdown | -21.16% | -31.38% | -31.06% | -40.95% | -31.06% | -40.95% | -58.59% | -71.16% |
| % Time Invested | 50.8% | 100.0% | 44.6% | 100.0% | 68.1% | 100.0% | 66.8% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-03-03 | 2026-04-08 | Completed | 100% | $500.51 | $501.50 | 0.15% | Signal | |
| 2026-02-06 | 2026-03-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-10-20 | 2026-02-06 | Completed | 100% | $539.52 | $542.16 | 0.44% | Stop | |
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-08-18 | 2025-09-26 | Completed | 100% | $488.35 | $459.80 | -5.89% | Stop | |
| 2024-11-18 | 2025-08-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-01-31 | 2024-11-18 | Completed | 100% | $558.68 | $507.81 | -9.15% | Stop | |
| 2023-05-18 | 2024-01-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 3.81% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-20 | 2023-05-18 | Completed | 100% | $580.63 | $515.47 | -11.27% | Stop | |
| 2022-03-18 | 2023-01-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-16 | 2022-03-18 | Completed | 100% | $545.17 | $569.61 | 4.43% | Signal | |
| 2022-01-25 | 2022-02-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-29 | 2022-01-25 | Completed | 100% | $449.90 | $561.18 | 24.67% | Stop | |
| 2021-03-05 | 2021-03-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-12-17 | 2021-03-05 | Completed | 100% | $451.48 | $438.32 | -2.96% | Stop | |
| 2020-11-24 | 2020-12-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-11-24 | Completed | 100% | $259.17 | $437.43 | 68.69% | Stop | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-18 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 100% | $235.53 | $285.97 | 21.35% | Stop | |
| 2018-12-26 | 2019-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-02-15 | 2018-12-26 | Completed | 100% | $152.40 | $206.15 | 35.21% | Stop | |
| 2016-12-13 | 2017-02-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-12-13 | Completed | 100% | $130.77 | $141.75 | 8.34% | Signal | |
| 2016-02-08 | 2016-03-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-12-07 | 2016-02-08 | Completed | 100% | $132.57 | $118.08 | -10.98% | Stop | |
| 2015-10-02 | 2015-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-09-17 | 2015-10-02 | Completed | 100% | $122.47 | $116.29 | -5.09% | Signal | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-12-09 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 100% | $122.56 | $120.49 | -1.73% | Stop | |
| 2014-11-12 | 2014-12-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-08-06 | 2014-11-12 | Completed | 100% | $53.84 | $113.69 | 111.05% | Signal | |
| 2012-07-12 | 2012-08-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-26 | 2012-07-12 | Completed | 100% | $47.36 | $48.64 | 2.66% | Signal | |
| 2012-06-04 | 2012-06-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-03-16 | 2012-06-04 | Completed | 100% | $55.04 | $46.51 | -15.55% | Stop | |
| 2011-09-12 | 2012-03-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-26 | 2011-09-12 | Completed | 100% | $49.70 | $47.03 | -5.43% | Signal | |
| 2011-08-04 | 2011-08-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-09-20 | 2011-08-04 | Completed | 100% | $44.88 | $52.76 | 17.48% | Stop | |
| 2010-08-12 | 2010-09-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-07-27 | 2010-08-12 | Completed | 100% | $46.07 | $41.95 | -8.99% | Signal | |
| 2010-07-02 | 2010-07-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-07-02 | 2010-07-02 | Completed | 100% | $37.68 | $45.58 | 20.91% | Stop | |
| 2008-09-25 | 2009-07-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-04-11 | 2008-09-25 | Completed | 100% | $52.25 | $51.57 | -1.35% | Stop | |
| 2008-03-10 | 2008-04-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-02-14 | 2008-03-10 | Completed | 100% | $54.22 | $50.57 | -6.77% | Signal | |
| 2008-01-23 | 2008-02-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-08-17 | 2008-01-23 | Completed | 100% | $27.11 | $46.76 | 72.40% | Stop | |
| 2005-03-17 | 2005-08-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-11-19 | 2005-03-17 | Completed | 100% | $28.51 | $24.76 | -13.20% | Signal | |
| 2004-08-27 | 2004-11-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.42% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-08-18 | 2004-08-27 | Completed | 100% | $23.41 | $25.24 | 7.78% | Signal | |
| 2004-07-27 | 2004-08-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-03-11 | 2004-07-27 | Completed | 100% | $16.79 | $24.66 | 46.83% | Stop | |
| 2003-02-14 | 2003-03-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-12-04 | 2003-02-14 | Completed | 100% | $18.76 | $16.63 | -11.38% | Stop | |
| 2002-04-30 | 2002-12-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.98% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-03-01 | 2002-04-30 | Completed | 100% | $19.23 | $17.96 | -6.68% | Signal | |
| 2002-02-06 | 2002-03-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-11-19 | 2002-02-06 | Completed | 100% | $20.94 | $19.84 | -5.33% | Stop | |
| 2001-04-16 | 2001-11-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.84% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-04-05 | 2001-04-16 | Completed | 100% | $17.83 | $17.30 | -3.01% | Signal | |
| 2001-03-14 | 2001-04-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-02-02 | 2001-03-14 | Completed | 100% | $23.99 | $20.33 | -15.30% | Stop | |
| 2001-01-10 | 2001-02-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-08-18 | 2001-01-10 | Completed | 100% | $17.18 | $21.47 | 24.96% | Stop | |
| 2000-07-27 | 2000-08-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.39% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-04-13 | 2000-07-27 | Completed | 100% | $16.16 | $16.82 | 4.04% | Stop | |
| 2000-03-22 | 2000-04-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-03-08 | 2000-03-22 | Completed | 100% | $20.23 | $16.87 | -16.62% | Stop | |
| 1999-09-27 | 2000-03-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.37% | Interest Income | |
| 1999-08-25 | 1999-09-27 | Completed | 100% | $13.11 | $11.03 | -15.93% | Stop | |
| 1999-08-03 | 1999-08-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 1999-06-08 | 1999-08-03 | Completed | 100% | $15.70 | $13.87 | -11.69% | Stop | |
| 1998-05-21 | 1999-06-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 4.86% | Interest Income | |
| 1998-04-09 | 1998-05-21 | Completed | 100% | $33.18 | $29.22 | -11.99% | Signal | |
| 1998-03-18 | 1998-04-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 1997-11-20 | 1998-03-18 | Completed | 100% | $30.90 | $30.29 | -2.02% | Stop | |
| 1997-10-29 | 1997-11-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 1997-08-04 | 1997-10-29 | Completed | 100% | $27.29 | $30.29 | 10.93% | Stop | |
| 1996-10-25 | 1997-08-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 3.96% | Interest Income | |
| 1996-08-07 | 1996-10-25 | Completed | 100% | $31.41 | $30.69 | -2.31% | Signal | |
| 1996-07-16 | 1996-08-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 1994-08-26 | 1996-07-16 | Completed | 100% | $15.72 | $28.25 | 79.67% | Stop | |
| 1994-04-05 | 1994-08-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.67% | Interest Income | |
| 1992-11-10 | 1994-04-05 | Completed | 100% | $10.75 | $14.09 | 30.99% | Stop | |
| 1992-05-04 | 1992-11-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.72% | Interest Income | |
| 1992-04-15 | 1992-05-04 | Completed | 100% | $10.48 | $10.06 | -4.06% | Signal | |
| 1992-03-24 | 1992-04-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income | |
| 1991-01-24 | 1992-03-24 | Completed | 100% | $6.97 | $9.76 | 40.02% | Stop | |
| 1990-07-17 | 1991-01-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 3.79% | Interest Income | |
| 1989-11-07 | 1990-07-17 | Completed | 100% | $7.78 | $7.45 | -4.29% | Signal | |
| 1989-10-16 | 1989-11-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1988-12-12 | 1989-10-16 | Completed | 100% | $4.26 | $7.15 | 67.52% | Stop | |
| 1988-11-17 | 1988-12-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1988-07-01 | 1988-11-17 | Completed | 100% | $4.33 | $3.96 | -8.38% | Stop | |
| 1987-10-09 | 1988-07-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.06 | 5.66% | Interest Income | |
| 1987-04-23 | 1987-10-09 | Completed | 100% | $5.29 | $5.44 | 2.79% | Stop | |
| 1987-03-31 | 1987-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1987-02-13 | 1987-03-31 | Completed | 100% | $5.92 | $5.89 | -0.56% | Stop | |
| 1986-10-28 | 1987-02-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.27% | Interest Income | |
| 1986-10-02 | 1986-10-28 | Completed | 100% | $4.55 | $4.33 | -4.89% | Signal | |
| 1986-09-10 | 1986-10-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1986-05-23 | 1986-09-10 | Completed | 100% | $4.81 | $4.55 | -5.46% | Stop | |
| 1986-05-01 | 1986-05-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1986-01-17 | 1986-05-01 | Completed | 100% | $3.56 | $4.53 | 26.90% | Stop | |
| 1985-12-24 | 1986-01-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1985-10-14 | 1985-12-24 | Completed | 100% | $3.30 | $3.18 | -3.68% | Stop | |
| 1985-09-19 | 1985-10-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1985-04-09 | 1985-09-19 | Completed | 100% | $2.46 | $3.16 | 28.74% | Stop | |
| 1985-03-15 | 1985-04-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1984-12-12 | 1985-03-15 | Completed | 100% | $1.87 | $2.34 | 24.94% | Stop | |
| 1984-11-19 | 1984-12-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1984-09-14 | 1984-11-19 | Completed | 100% | $2.06 | $1.86 | -9.79% | Stop | |
| 1984-03-15 | 1984-09-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 3.87% | Interest Income | |
| 1984-02-28 | 1984-03-15 | Completed | 100% | $1.92 | $1.80 | -6.30% | Signal | |
| 1984-02-03 | 1984-02-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1984-01-09 | 1984-02-03 | Completed | 100% | $2.35 | $2.00 | -14.82% | Stop | |
| 1983-11-03 | 1984-01-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.32% | Interest Income | |
| 1983-10-06 | 1983-11-03 | Completed | 100% | $1.83 | $1.61 | -12.18% | Stop | |
| 1983-09-14 | 1983-10-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1983-06-07 | 1983-09-14 | Completed | 100% | $2.09 | $1.96 | -6.43% | Stop | |
| 1983-05-13 | 1983-06-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1983-01-07 | 1983-05-13 | Completed | 100% | $1.31 | $1.87 | 42.79% | Stop | |
| 1982-12-15 | 1983-01-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1982-11-08 | 1982-12-15 | Completed | 100% | $1.37 | $1.16 | -15.63% | Stop | |
| 1982-05-26 | 1982-11-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.47% | Interest Income | |