VWOB
Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for VWOB (Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -17.5% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -27.0%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.7%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 3.4%. The strategy executed 31 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
VWOB Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 7.08% | 7.04% | 0.51% | 1.74% | 2.44% | 3.06% | 2.69% | 3.43% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.35 | 1.29 | 0.09 | 0.19 | 0.41 | 0.32 | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| Max Drawdown | -4.48% | -4.48% | -16.96% | -26.97% | -17.49% | -26.97% | -17.49% | -26.97% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 82.6% | 100.0% | 90.7% | 100.0% | 91.6% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-04-16 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-06-30 | 2026-04-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.24 | $66.28 | 8.18% | Signal | |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-07-16 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.74% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-06-05 | 2025-06-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-06-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $59.18 | $60.31 | 1.86% | Signal | |
| 2025-05-21 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-03-14 | 2025-05-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $55.08 | $59.49 | 7.96% | Signal | |
| 2025-01-14 | 2025-04-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-01-12 | 2025-01-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $54.31 | $57.48 | 5.78% | Signal | |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-04-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.06 | 5.69% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-10-04 | 2024-03-14 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.99% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-09-27 | 2024-01-12 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.88% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-12 | 2023-10-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $51.25 | $49.06 | -4.33% | Stop | |
| 2023-08-10 | 2023-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.04 | $50.30 | -3.39% | Signal | |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-08-10 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-05-17 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-20 | 2023-05-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $51.65 | $50.52 | -2.24% | Signal | |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-04-12 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-01-20 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-27 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-27 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-27 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-07-26 | 2022-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.94 | $46.40 | -5.23% | Stop | |
| 2022-07-26 | 2022-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.94 | $46.40 | -5.23% | Stop | |
| 2022-07-26 | 2022-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.94 | $46.40 | -5.23% | Stop | |
| 2022-06-14 | 2022-07-26 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-06-14 | 2022-07-26 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-06-14 | 2022-07-26 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-06-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $51.51 | $48.35 | -6.18% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-06-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $51.51 | $48.35 | -6.18% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-06-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $51.51 | $48.35 | -6.18% | Stop | |
| 2022-04-22 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-08 | 2022-04-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.85 | $51.88 | -1.87% | Signal | |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-03-08 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-11 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-11 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-08-20 | 2022-02-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $60.55 | $57.12 | -5.71% | Stop | |
| 2020-04-01 | 2022-02-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.29 | $57.12 | 15.82% | Stop | |
| 2021-11-22 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-07-06 | 2021-11-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $60.18 | $59.54 | -1.13% | Signal | |
| 2021-08-03 | 2021-08-20 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-07-29 | 2021-08-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-23 | 2021-07-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $58.30 | $60.45 | 3.64% | Signal | |
| 2021-05-04 | 2021-07-06 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-04-13 | 2021-05-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-15 | 2021-04-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $57.02 | $58.46 | 2.47% | Signal | |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-07-23 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.78% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-07-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.60% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-20 | 2020-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-01 | 2020-04-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.29 | $51.24 | 3.90% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-07 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $51.04 | $54.75 | 7.21% | Stop | |
| 2018-09-28 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.62 | $54.75 | 8.11% | Stop | |
| 2018-09-28 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.62 | $54.75 | 8.11% | Stop | |
| 2018-12-04 | 2019-01-07 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-10-05 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-05-29 | 2018-10-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.22 | $50.08 | 10.70% | Signal | |
| 2018-04-16 | 2018-09-28 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-02-09 | 2018-09-28 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.45% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-05-15 | 2018-04-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.50 | $51.01 | 0.97% | Signal | |
| 2017-03-22 | 2018-02-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.48 | $50.84 | 2.70% | Signal | |
| 2017-05-02 | 2017-05-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-04-18 | 2017-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-03-02 | 2017-04-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.74 | $50.03 | 11.77% | Signal | |
| 2016-12-16 | 2017-03-22 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.60% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-12-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.74 | $47.51 | 6.15% | Signal | |
| 2016-02-08 | 2016-03-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-03-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-09 | 2016-02-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.53 | $44.03 | -1.17% | Signal | |
| 2015-12-14 | 2016-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-06-19 | 2015-12-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.44 | $43.81 | -1.47% | Signal | |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-10-09 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-08-24 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-05-29 | 2015-08-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.22 | $42.93 | -5.12% | Signal | |
| 2015-05-27 | 2015-06-19 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-05-27 | 2015-05-29 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-05-27 | 2015-05-29 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |