VWOB Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for VWOB (Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -17.2% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -27.0%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.9%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 3.6%. The strategy executed 31 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
VWOB Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 10.52% | 11.32% | 1.02% | 2.18% | 3.15% | 3.68% | 2.93% | 3.59% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.13 | 2.10 | 0.18 | 0.24 | 0.52 | 0.38 | 0.50 | 0.39 |
| Max Drawdown | -4.48% | -4.48% | -16.75% | -26.97% | -17.23% | -26.97% | -17.23% | -26.97% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 82.6% | 100.0% | 90.7% | 100.0% | 91.5% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pending (2026-05-30) | — | Pending Buy | 33.33% | — | — | —% | Pending Next-Day Open |
| 2025-07-16 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $61.52 | $67.25 | 9.31% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2024-04-02 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $55.80 | $67.25 | 20.53% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-04 | Open | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-04-16 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income |
| 2025-06-30 | 2026-04-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.82 | $66.91 | 8.23% | Signal |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-07-16 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.74% | Interest Income |
| 2025-06-05 | 2025-06-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-06-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $59.74 | $60.88 | 1.91% | Signal |
| 2025-05-21 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income |
| 2024-03-14 | 2025-05-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $55.60 | $60.06 | 8.02% | Signal |
| 2025-01-14 | 2025-04-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.09% | Interest Income |
| 2024-01-12 | 2025-01-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $54.83 | $58.02 | 5.84% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-04-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.06 | 5.69% | Interest Income |
| 2023-10-04 | 2024-03-14 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.99% | Interest Income |
| 2023-09-27 | 2024-01-12 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.88% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-12 | 2023-10-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $51.74 | $49.52 | -4.28% | Stop |
| 2023-08-10 | 2023-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.54 | $50.78 | -3.34% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-08-10 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.30% | Interest Income |
| 2023-05-17 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2023-01-20 | 2023-05-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.14 | $50.99 | -2.19% | Signal |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-04-12 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-01-20 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.04% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-27 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.30% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-27 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.30% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-27 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.30% | Interest Income |
| 2022-07-26 | 2022-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.40 | $46.84 | -5.18% | Stop |
| 2022-07-26 | 2022-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.40 | $46.84 | -5.18% | Stop |
| 2022-07-26 | 2022-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.40 | $46.84 | -5.18% | Stop |
| 2022-06-14 | 2022-07-26 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2022-06-14 | 2022-07-26 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2022-06-14 | 2022-07-26 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-06-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.00 | $48.81 | -6.13% | Stop |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-06-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.00 | $48.81 | -6.13% | Stop |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-06-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.00 | $48.81 | -6.13% | Stop |
| 2022-04-22 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-08 | 2022-04-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $53.35 | $52.38 | -1.82% | Signal |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-03-08 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2022-02-11 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2022-02-11 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-08-20 | 2022-02-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.12 | $57.66 | -5.67% | Stop |
| 2020-04-01 | 2022-02-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.76 | $57.66 | 15.88% | Stop |
| 2021-11-22 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-07-06 | 2021-11-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $60.75 | $60.10 | -1.08% | Signal |
| 2021-08-03 | 2021-08-20 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-07-29 | 2021-08-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-07-23 | 2021-07-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $58.85 | $61.02 | 3.69% | Signal |
| 2021-05-04 | 2021-07-06 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income |
| 2021-04-13 | 2021-05-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-07-15 | 2021-04-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $57.57 | $59.01 | 2.52% | Signal |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-07-23 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.78% | Interest Income |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-07-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.60% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-20 | 2020-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-01 | 2020-04-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.76 | $51.73 | 3.95% | Signal |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2019-01-07 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $51.52 | $55.27 | 7.27% | Stop |
| 2018-09-28 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $51.10 | $55.27 | 8.16% | Stop |
| 2018-09-28 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $51.10 | $55.27 | 8.16% | Stop |
| 2018-12-04 | 2019-01-07 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2018-10-05 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2015-05-29 | 2018-10-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.65 | $50.56 | 10.75% | Signal |
| 2018-04-16 | 2018-09-28 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.22% | Interest Income |
| 2018-02-09 | 2018-09-28 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.45% | Interest Income |
| 2017-05-15 | 2018-04-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.98 | $51.50 | 1.03% | Signal |
| 2017-03-22 | 2018-02-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.94 | $51.32 | 2.75% | Signal |
| 2017-05-02 | 2017-05-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2017-04-18 | 2017-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2016-03-02 | 2017-04-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.16 | $50.51 | 11.83% | Signal |
| 2016-12-16 | 2017-03-22 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.60% | Interest Income |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-12-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.16 | $47.97 | 6.20% | Signal |
| 2016-02-08 | 2016-03-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-03-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2015-10-09 | 2016-02-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.95 | $44.45 | -1.12% | Signal |
| 2015-12-14 | 2016-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2015-06-19 | 2015-12-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.86 | $44.23 | -1.42% | Signal |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-10-09 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-24 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-05-29 | 2015-08-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.65 | $43.34 | -5.07% | Signal |
| 2015-05-27 | 2015-06-19 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2015-05-27 | 2015-05-29 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-05-27 | 2015-05-29 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |