VWOB
Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for VWOB (Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond Index Fund ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -26.2% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -27.0%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.3%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 3.4%. The strategy executed 10 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
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VWOB Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 7.04% | 7.04% | 0.53% | 1.74% | 1.03% | 3.06% | 1.33% | 3.43% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.29 | 1.29 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 0.32 | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| Max Drawdown | -4.48% | -4.48% | -17.91% | -26.97% | -26.16% | -26.97% | -26.16% | -26.97% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 77.9% | 100.0% | 77.1% | 100.0% | 76.2% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2023-10-10 | 2023-12-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-13 | 2023-10-10 | Completed | 100% | $51.23 | $49.29 | -3.85% | Signal | |
| 2022-09-27 | 2023-01-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-07-26 | 2022-09-27 | Completed | 100% | $48.94 | $46.40 | -5.23% | Stop | |
| 2022-06-14 | 2022-07-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-06-14 | Completed | 100% | $51.51 | $48.35 | -6.18% | Stop | |
| 2021-11-30 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-06-11 | 2021-11-30 | Completed | 100% | $60.55 | $58.69 | -3.12% | Signal | |
| 2021-04-09 | 2021-06-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-20 | 2021-04-09 | Completed | 100% | $57.37 | $58.34 | 1.63% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-07-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-09-28 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 100% | $50.62 | $51.95 | 2.58% | Stop | |
| 2018-03-16 | 2018-09-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-02-21 | 2018-03-16 | Completed | 100% | $49.30 | $50.92 | 3.23% | Signal | |
| 2017-01-05 | 2017-02-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-03-02 | 2017-01-05 | Completed | 100% | $44.74 | $48.53 | 8.41% | Signal | |
| 2015-12-31 | 2016-03-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-12-04 | 2015-12-31 | Completed | 100% | $44.48 | $44.04 | -1.04% | Signal | |
| 2015-09-23 | 2015-12-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-05-29 | 2015-09-23 | Completed | 100% | $45.22 | $43.93 | -2.91% | Signal | |
| 2015-05-27 | 2015-05-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |