VWO
Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for VWO (Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -48.0% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -67.7%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.6%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 5.1%. The strategy executed 21 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
VWO Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 16.36% | 16.36% | 6.83% | 5.80% | 6.99% | 7.72% | 2.56% | 5.11% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.51 | 0.32 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| Max Drawdown | -11.17% | -11.17% | -16.25% | -30.88% | -22.74% | -36.39% | -48.01% | -67.68% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 66.5% | 100.0% | 70.9% | 100.0% | 64.5% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-01-02 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 100% | $38.31 | $40.52 | 5.72% | Stop | |
| 2023-10-10 | 2024-01-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-25 | 2023-10-10 | Completed | 100% | $38.67 | $36.05 | -6.82% | Signal | |
| 2021-09-08 | 2023-01-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.37% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-27 | 2021-09-08 | Completed | 100% | $36.11 | $45.39 | 25.62% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-07-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-11-07 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 100% | $35.47 | $32.20 | -9.26% | Stop | |
| 2019-09-25 | 2019-11-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-03-11 | 2019-09-25 | Completed | 100% | $33.44 | $33.19 | -0.81% | Signal | |
| 2018-06-14 | 2019-03-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.64% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-05-02 | 2018-06-14 | Completed | 100% | $26.06 | $35.12 | 34.72% | Signal | |
| 2015-07-29 | 2016-05-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-05-01 | 2015-07-29 | Completed | 100% | $31.92 | $27.73 | -13.18% | Signal | |
| 2014-12-04 | 2015-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-03-31 | 2014-12-04 | Completed | 100% | $28.64 | $30.03 | 4.79% | Signal | |
| 2014-01-29 | 2014-03-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-09-10 | 2014-01-29 | Completed | 100% | $28.44 | $26.28 | -7.63% | Signal | |
| 2013-06-20 | 2013-09-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-10-03 | 2013-06-20 | Completed | 100% | $28.56 | $26.03 | -8.92% | Signal | |
| 2012-06-14 | 2012-10-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-12 | 2012-06-14 | Completed | 100% | $25.65 | $25.65 | -0.02% | Signal | |
| 2012-05-18 | 2012-06-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-01-26 | 2012-05-18 | Completed | 100% | $28.61 | $25.46 | -11.08% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-08 | 2012-01-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-08-18 | 2011-08-08 | Completed | 100% | $26.98 | $27.29 | 1.11% | Stop | |
| 2010-06-24 | 2010-08-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-06-24 | Completed | 100% | $24.25 | $25.73 | 6.06% | Signal | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-03-03 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 100% | $25.86 | $24.81 | -4.09% | Stop | |
| 2010-02-08 | 2010-03-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-05-22 | 2010-02-08 | Completed | 100% | $19.63 | $23.96 | 22.03% | Stop | |
| 2008-06-30 | 2009-05-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.55% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-05-29 | 2008-06-30 | Completed | 100% | $31.11 | $28.10 | -9.70% | Signal | |
| 2008-03-12 | 2008-05-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-02-14 | 2008-03-12 | Completed | 100% | $29.33 | $29.28 | -0.21% | Signal | |
| 2008-01-23 | 2008-02-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-12-19 | 2008-01-23 | Completed | 100% | $30.68 | $26.62 | -13.27% | Stop | |
| 2007-11-27 | 2007-12-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-09-10 | 2007-11-27 | Completed | 100% | $27.85 | $29.98 | 7.62% | Stop | |
| 2007-08-16 | 2007-09-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-03-07 | 2007-08-16 | Completed | 100% | $21.82 | $23.71 | 8.64% | Stop | |
| 2007-03-05 | 2007-03-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |