VXF
Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for VXF (Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -29.8% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -58.0%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.2%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 10.2%. The strategy executed 65 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
VXF Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 18.32% | 19.95% | 1.30% | 6.09% | 8.14% | 11.68% | 8.20% | 10.19% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.99 | 1.03 | 0.09 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.43 |
| Max Drawdown | -10.21% | -10.21% | -29.81% | -36.39% | -29.81% | -41.72% | -29.81% | -58.04% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 85.9% | 100.0% | 92.0% | 100.0% | 91.3% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-06-13 | 2025-10-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.26% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-06-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $166.39 | $183.52 | 10.24% | Signal | |
| 2025-03-05 | 2025-06-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.16% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-27 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $175.69 | $146.68 | -16.55% | Stop | |
| 2025-03-11 | 2025-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-05 | 2025-03-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-02-29 | 2025-03-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $165.26 | $169.68 | 2.63% | Stop | |
| 2024-08-01 | 2025-03-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $175.19 | $177.77 | 1.42% | Stop | |
| 2023-11-14 | 2025-03-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $138.19 | $177.77 | 28.58% | Stop | |
| 2024-07-10 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-01-09 | 2024-07-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $155.54 | $164.31 | 5.59% | Signal | |
| 2023-03-13 | 2024-02-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 5.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-10-23 | 2024-01-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-10-23 | 2023-11-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-07-18 | 2023-10-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $149.22 | $131.05 | -12.22% | Stop | |
| 2023-06-21 | 2023-10-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $140.93 | $131.05 | -7.05% | Stop | |
| 2023-05-11 | 2023-07-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.94% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-03-13 | 2023-06-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.38% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-05 | 2023-05-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $131.68 | $131.16 | -0.44% | Signal | |
| 2023-03-14 | 2023-04-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-03-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $137.03 | $131.74 | -3.91% | Stop | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $137.03 | $128.08 | -6.58% | Stop | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $137.03 | $128.08 | -6.58% | Stop | |
| 2022-11-09 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.79% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-08-29 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.51% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-23 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-12 | 2022-11-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $122.30 | $127.70 | 4.37% | Signal | |
| 2022-01-21 | 2022-10-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-06-01 | 2022-08-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $137.99 | $136.89 | -0.85% | Signal | |
| 2022-05-09 | 2022-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-11 | 2022-05-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $158.73 | $134.42 | -15.35% | Stop | |
| 2022-02-16 | 2022-02-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $158.41 | $151.30 | -4.54% | Signal | |
| 2022-01-25 | 2022-02-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-01-20 | 2022-02-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-01-12 | 2022-01-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $168.92 | $151.79 | -10.19% | Stop | |
| 2022-01-12 | 2022-01-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $168.92 | $154.19 | -8.77% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-31 | 2022-01-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $84.52 | $158.40 | 87.33% | Stop | |
| 2021-12-20 | 2022-01-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-12-20 | 2022-01-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-10-01 | 2021-12-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $121.91 | $165.90 | 36.01% | Stop | |
| 2020-06-23 | 2021-12-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $111.22 | $165.90 | 49.09% | Stop | |
| 2020-09-09 | 2020-10-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-09-02 | 2020-09-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $126.39 | $118.45 | -6.33% | Stop | |
| 2020-04-28 | 2020-09-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-03 | 2020-06-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-04-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $75.35 | $97.28 | 29.04% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-04-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $75.35 | $78.91 | 4.67% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-09 | 2020-03-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-12-18 | 2020-03-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $115.35 | $97.35 | -15.65% | Stop | |
| 2019-11-14 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $111.06 | $107.44 | -3.31% | Stop | |
| 2019-02-20 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $106.23 | $107.44 | 1.09% | Stop | |
| 2019-09-03 | 2019-12-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.50% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-10-08 | 2019-11-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-09-09 | 2019-10-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $107.38 | $104.71 | -2.54% | Signal | |
| 2019-08-15 | 2019-09-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-10 | 2019-09-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $95.82 | $105.01 | 9.53% | Signal | |
| 2019-02-20 | 2019-08-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $106.23 | $103.93 | -2.22% | Signal | |
| 2018-12-21 | 2019-02-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-10-25 | 2019-02-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.74% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-17 | 2019-01-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-16 | 2018-12-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $100.10 | $89.46 | -10.68% | Stop | |
| 2016-11-15 | 2018-12-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $81.72 | $94.37 | 15.42% | Stop | |
| 2018-10-25 | 2018-11-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-07-27 | 2018-10-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $78.80 | $97.79 | 24.03% | Stop | |
| 2016-05-06 | 2018-10-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.17 | $97.79 | 35.43% | Stop | |
| 2016-04-21 | 2016-11-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-11-06 | 2016-07-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-08-24 | 2016-05-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-10 | 2016-04-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.47 | $74.46 | 19.14% | Signal | |
| 2016-01-19 | 2016-02-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-09-17 | 2016-01-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $75.64 | $65.82 | -13.04% | Stop | |
| 2015-09-17 | 2015-11-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $75.64 | $76.05 | 0.48% | Signal | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-27 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.00 | $73.74 | 63.79% | Stop | |
| 2011-10-27 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.80 | $73.74 | 68.27% | Stop | |
| 2014-12-29 | 2015-08-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $76.32 | $68.79 | -9.91% | Signal | |
| 2014-10-28 | 2014-12-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-09-13 | 2014-10-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.81 | $71.65 | 43.76% | Signal | |
| 2012-06-29 | 2012-09-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-27 | 2012-06-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.00 | $46.44 | 3.15% | Signal | |
| 2012-06-05 | 2012-06-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-05 | 2012-06-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-03-22 | 2012-06-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.59 | $43.37 | -10.79% | Stop | |
| 2012-01-03 | 2012-06-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.76 | $43.37 | -0.95% | Stop | |
| 2011-10-04 | 2012-03-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-05 | 2012-01-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-10-05 | 2011-10-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-30 | 2011-10-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.94 | $37.68 | -10.19% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-29 | 2011-10-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.85 | $35.51 | -13.12% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-08 | 2011-08-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-05 | 2011-08-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2011-08-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.53 | $39.64 | 8.47% | Stop | |
| 2010-10-14 | 2011-08-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.04 | $42.46 | 5.99% | Stop | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2011-08-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.53 | $42.46 | 16.19% | Stop | |
| 2010-07-30 | 2010-10-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-07-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.53 | $36.10 | -1.22% | Signal | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-09-15 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $32.88 | $37.30 | 13.37% | Stop | |
| 2009-08-04 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $30.61 | $37.30 | 21.77% | Stop | |
| 2009-05-14 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $25.73 | $37.30 | 44.88% | Stop | |
| 2008-07-17 | 2009-09-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-12-12 | 2009-08-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.66% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-09-02 | 2009-05-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-07-31 | 2008-09-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.22 | $39.24 | 2.62% | Signal | |
| 2008-07-09 | 2008-07-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-02-04 | 2008-07-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.79 | $37.30 | -6.29% | Signal | |
| 2008-06-05 | 2008-07-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.25 | $37.33 | -9.56% | Stop | |
| 2007-08-17 | 2008-06-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-01-10 | 2008-02-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-12-30 | 2008-01-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.43 | $38.09 | 44.03% | Stop | |
| 2007-09-11 | 2007-12-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.21 | $42.73 | 3.65% | Signal | |
| 2007-08-17 | 2007-09-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-01-11 | 2007-08-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.70 | $40.99 | 3.19% | Stop | |
| 2006-09-05 | 2007-08-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.18 | $40.99 | 13.24% | Stop | |
| 2006-10-03 | 2007-01-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-12-07 | 2006-10-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $30.23 | $35.95 | 18.88% | Signal | |
| 2006-07-05 | 2006-09-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.85% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-07-07 | 2006-07-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $32.00 | $36.42 | 13.76% | Signal | |
| 2005-05-11 | 2005-07-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.46% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-11-03 | 2005-05-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.43 | $29.86 | 4.98% | Signal | |
| 2004-10-11 | 2004-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-06-18 | 2004-11-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.59% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-12-30 | 2004-10-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.43 | $27.46 | 3.84% | Signal | |
| 2003-12-30 | 2004-06-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.43 | $27.24 | 3.00% | Signal | |
| 2003-12-26 | 2003-12-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-12-26 | 2003-12-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-12-26 | 2003-12-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |