VXF
Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for VXF (Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -24.8% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -58.0%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.2%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 10.2%. The strategy executed 17 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
VXF Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 19.95% | 19.95% | 1.48% | 6.09% | 7.68% | 11.68% | 8.20% | 10.19% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.03 | 1.03 | 0.09 | 0.27 | 0.49 | 0.50 | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| Max Drawdown | -10.21% | -10.21% | -24.76% | -36.39% | -24.76% | -41.72% | -24.76% | -58.04% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 70.6% | 100.0% | 78.6% | 100.0% | 75.8% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-06-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.75% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-01 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 100% | $169.55 | $157.22 | -7.32% | Stop | |
| 2025-03-10 | 2025-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-12-14 | 2025-03-10 | Completed | 100% | $156.17 | $173.09 | 10.78% | Stop | |
| 2023-10-26 | 2023-12-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.73% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-06-08 | 2023-10-26 | Completed | 100% | $139.91 | $129.42 | -7.55% | Stop | |
| 2023-05-03 | 2023-06-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-05-03 | Completed | 100% | $137.03 | $129.72 | -5.38% | Signal | |
| 2022-01-19 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.26% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-16 | 2022-01-19 | Completed | 100% | $113.89 | $160.28 | 40.66% | Stop | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-07-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-02-20 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 100% | $106.23 | $107.44 | 1.09% | Stop | |
| 2018-10-30 | 2019-02-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-05-16 | 2018-10-30 | Completed | 100% | $72.28 | $97.09 | 34.27% | Stop | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2016-05-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-12-11 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 100% | $73.68 | $73.74 | 0.03% | Stop | |
| 2014-11-14 | 2014-12-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-02-09 | 2014-11-14 | Completed | 100% | $48.40 | $74.35 | 53.53% | Signal | |
| 2011-08-05 | 2012-02-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-10-01 | 2011-08-05 | Completed | 100% | $38.86 | $42.46 | 9.21% | Stop | |
| 2010-08-23 | 2010-10-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-08-23 | Completed | 100% | $36.53 | $35.52 | -2.80% | Signal | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-06-11 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 100% | $28.53 | $37.30 | 30.65% | Stop | |
| 2008-07-08 | 2009-06-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-06-25 | 2008-07-08 | Completed | 100% | $39.42 | $36.34 | -7.85% | Signal | |
| 2007-12-17 | 2008-06-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-10-19 | 2007-12-17 | Completed | 100% | $43.73 | $40.65 | -7.08% | Signal | |
| 2007-09-27 | 2007-10-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-09-05 | 2007-09-27 | Completed | 100% | $36.18 | $43.09 | 19.06% | Signal | |
| 2006-07-25 | 2006-09-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.57% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-10-29 | 2006-07-25 | Completed | 100% | $27.97 | $34.70 | 24.02% | Signal | |
| 2004-08-16 | 2004-10-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-12-30 | 2004-08-16 | Completed | 100% | $26.43 | $25.06 | -5.26% | Signal | |
| 2003-12-26 | 2003-12-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |