XLK
The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-06-12
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for XLK (The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund) using the Excess Return SMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -36.0% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -69.9%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.6%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 10.8%. The strategy executed 21 total trades.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA Active
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
XLK Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 26.55% | 53.28% | 14.40% | 21.80% | 23.75% | 25.23% | 11.55% | 10.76% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.09 | 1.90 | 0.61 | 0.79 | 1.01 | 0.91 | 0.62 | 0.41 |
| Max Drawdown | -15.92% | -15.92% | -34.33% | -33.56% | -34.33% | -33.56% | -35.96% | -69.90% |
| % Time Invested | 93.7% | 100.0% | 89.8% | 100.0% | 93.6% | 100.0% | 82.6% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Open | Open | 100% | $156.77 | $184.80 | 17.88% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-24 | 2026-03-31 | Completed | 100% | $99.43 | $129.15 | 29.89% | Stop |
| 2025-04-01 | 2025-04-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-27 | 2025-04-01 | Completed | 100% | $108.70 | $102.25 | -5.94% | Stop |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-08-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income |
| 2023-01-18 | 2024-08-05 | Completed | 100% | $64.42 | $94.92 | 47.35% | Stop |
| 2022-11-30 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.55% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-10 | 2022-11-30 | Completed | 100% | $58.85 | $63.05 | 7.15% | Signal |
| 2022-09-16 | 2022-10-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income |
| 2022-06-01 | 2022-09-16 | Completed | 100% | $68.82 | $62.36 | -9.39% | Stop |
| 2022-05-09 | 2022-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2022-02-16 | 2022-05-09 | Completed | 100% | $76.38 | $66.92 | -12.38% | Stop |
| 2022-01-25 | 2022-02-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-24 | 2022-01-25 | Completed | 100% | $35.60 | $73.60 | 106.76% | Stop |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-17 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 100% | $29.98 | $42.67 | 42.30% | Stop |
| 2018-11-21 | 2018-12-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-17 | 2018-11-21 | Completed | 100% | $18.07 | $30.33 | 67.86% | Stop |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2011-09-01 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 100% | $10.08 | $17.44 | 73.01% | Stop |
| 2011-08-10 | 2011-09-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2010-07-26 | 2011-08-10 | Completed | 100% | $9.00 | $9.70 | 7.73% | Stop |
| 2010-07-01 | 2010-07-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2009-07-17 | 2010-07-01 | Completed | 100% | $7.53 | $8.28 | 9.98% | Stop |
| 2008-09-11 | 2009-07-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income |
| 2008-08-07 | 2008-09-11 | Completed | 100% | $8.95 | $8.31 | -7.11% | Signal |
| 2008-07-16 | 2008-08-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2008-02-11 | 2008-07-16 | Completed | 100% | $8.78 | $8.69 | -1.07% | Stop |
| 2008-01-17 | 2008-02-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income |
| 2006-08-07 | 2008-01-17 | Completed | 100% | $7.58 | $9.33 | 23.06% | Stop |
| 2006-07-14 | 2006-08-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2005-08-23 | 2006-07-14 | Completed | 100% | $7.97 | $7.29 | -8.56% | Stop |
| 2005-06-24 | 2005-08-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.54% | Interest Income |
| 2004-08-31 | 2005-06-24 | Completed | 100% | $7.01 | $7.77 | 10.78% | Signal |
| 2004-08-09 | 2004-08-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2003-05-30 | 2004-08-09 | Completed | 100% | $6.28 | $6.98 | 11.24% | Stop |
| 2001-03-13 | 2003-05-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 4.60% | Interest Income |
| 2001-03-07 | 2001-03-13 | Completed | 100% | $11.20 | $9.62 | -14.09% | Stop |
| 2001-02-12 | 2001-03-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income |
| 2001-01-17 | 2001-02-12 | Completed | 100% | $13.39 | $12.13 | -9.44% | Stop |
| 2000-12-21 | 2001-01-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income |
| 2000-12-14 | 2000-12-21 | Completed | 100% | $13.77 | $11.32 | -17.74% | Stop |
| 2000-12-12 | 2000-12-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |