XLK
The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-28
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for XLK (The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund) using the Excess Return SMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -36.1% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -69.9%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.1%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 10.4%. The strategy executed 21 total trades.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA Active
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
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XLK Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 7.45% | 30.28% | 11.04% | 18.39% | 21.87% | 23.44% | 11.06% | 10.38% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.30 | 1.07 | 0.46 | 0.66 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.59 | 0.40 |
| Max Drawdown | -15.92% | -15.92% | -34.46% | -33.56% | -34.46% | -33.56% | -36.12% | -69.90% |
| % Time Invested | 93.7% | 100.0% | 89.8% | 100.0% | 93.6% | 100.0% | 82.7% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-24 | 2026-03-31 | Completed | 100% | $99.31 | $129.00 | 29.83% | Stop | |
| 2025-04-01 | 2025-04-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-27 | 2025-04-01 | Completed | 100% | $108.57 | $102.12 | -5.99% | Stop | |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-08-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2024-08-05 | Completed | 100% | $64.34 | $94.80 | 47.27% | Stop | |
| 2022-11-30 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.55% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-10 | 2022-11-30 | Completed | 100% | $58.78 | $62.98 | 7.09% | Signal | |
| 2022-09-16 | 2022-10-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-06-01 | 2022-09-16 | Completed | 100% | $68.74 | $62.29 | -9.43% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-09 | 2022-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-16 | 2022-05-09 | Completed | 100% | $76.29 | $66.84 | -12.43% | Stop | |
| 2022-01-25 | 2022-02-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2022-01-25 | Completed | 100% | $35.55 | $73.51 | 106.66% | Stop | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-17 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 100% | $29.95 | $42.62 | 42.23% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-21 | 2018-12-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-09-17 | 2018-11-21 | Completed | 100% | $18.05 | $30.29 | 67.78% | Stop | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-09-01 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 100% | $10.07 | $17.42 | 72.93% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-10 | 2011-09-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-07-26 | 2011-08-10 | Completed | 100% | $8.99 | $9.69 | 7.68% | Stop | |
| 2010-07-01 | 2010-07-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-07-17 | 2010-07-01 | Completed | 100% | $7.52 | $8.27 | 9.92% | Stop | |
| 2008-09-11 | 2009-07-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-08-07 | 2008-09-11 | Completed | 100% | $8.94 | $8.30 | -7.16% | Signal | |
| 2008-07-16 | 2008-08-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-02-11 | 2008-07-16 | Completed | 100% | $8.77 | $8.68 | -1.12% | Stop | |
| 2008-01-17 | 2008-02-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-08-07 | 2008-01-17 | Completed | 100% | $7.57 | $9.32 | 23.00% | Stop | |
| 2006-07-14 | 2006-08-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-08-23 | 2006-07-14 | Completed | 100% | $7.96 | $7.28 | -8.61% | Stop | |
| 2005-06-24 | 2005-08-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.54% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-08-31 | 2005-06-24 | Completed | 100% | $7.01 | $7.76 | 10.72% | Signal | |
| 2004-08-09 | 2004-08-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-05-30 | 2004-08-09 | Completed | 100% | $6.27 | $6.98 | 11.18% | Stop | |
| 2001-03-13 | 2003-05-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 4.60% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-03-07 | 2001-03-13 | Completed | 100% | $11.18 | $9.61 | -14.13% | Stop | |
| 2001-02-12 | 2001-03-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-01-17 | 2001-02-12 | Completed | 100% | $13.38 | $12.11 | -9.49% | Stop | |
| 2000-12-21 | 2001-01-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-12-14 | 2000-12-21 | Completed | 100% | $13.75 | $11.31 | -17.78% | Stop | |
| 2000-12-12 | 2000-12-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |