XLK
The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-28
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for XLK (The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -24.9% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -69.9%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.2%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 10.4%. The strategy executed 19 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
XLK Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 7.45% | 30.28% | 8.90% | 18.39% | 19.08% | 23.44% | 11.17% | 10.38% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.30 | 1.07 | 0.44 | 0.66 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.67 | 0.40 |
| Max Drawdown | -15.92% | -15.92% | -24.91% | -33.56% | -24.91% | -33.56% | -24.91% | -69.90% |
| % Time Invested | 93.7% | 100.0% | 74.7% | 100.0% | 83.5% | 100.0% | 73.1% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-06-27 | 2026-03-31 | Completed | 100% | $125.22 | $129.00 | 2.97% | Stop | |
| 2025-04-01 | 2025-06-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-27 | 2025-04-01 | Completed | 100% | $108.57 | $102.12 | -5.99% | Stop | |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-08-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2024-08-05 | Completed | 100% | $64.34 | $94.80 | 47.27% | Stop | |
| 2022-03-17 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-16 | 2022-03-17 | Completed | 100% | $76.29 | $72.54 | -4.96% | Signal | |
| 2022-01-25 | 2022-02-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-05-28 | 2022-01-25 | Completed | 100% | $45.99 | $73.51 | 59.76% | Stop | |
| 2020-04-30 | 2020-05-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-04-30 | Completed | 100% | $35.55 | $43.82 | 23.18% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-02-22 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 100% | $32.76 | $42.62 | 30.02% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-21 | 2019-02-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.58% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-03-22 | 2018-11-21 | Completed | 100% | $19.50 | $30.29 | 55.25% | Stop | |
| 2016-02-10 | 2016-03-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-09 | 2016-02-10 | Completed | 100% | $18.37 | $17.42 | -5.22% | Signal | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-02-04 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 100% | $12.49 | $17.42 | 39.38% | Stop | |
| 2012-12-13 | 2013-02-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-12-07 | 2012-12-13 | Completed | 100% | $10.70 | $12.22 | 14.13% | Signal | |
| 2011-08-10 | 2011-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-09-17 | 2011-08-10 | Completed | 100% | $9.18 | $9.69 | 5.53% | Stop | |
| 2010-07-01 | 2010-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-06-01 | 2010-07-01 | Completed | 100% | $7.12 | $8.27 | 16.16% | Stop | |
| 2008-01-17 | 2009-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-10-12 | 2008-01-17 | Completed | 100% | $8.65 | $9.32 | 7.73% | Stop | |
| 2006-06-16 | 2006-10-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.61% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-05-20 | 2006-06-16 | Completed | 100% | $7.62 | $7.80 | 2.30% | Signal | |
| 2005-04-27 | 2005-05-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-10-07 | 2005-04-27 | Completed | 100% | $7.47 | $7.16 | -4.26% | Signal | |
| 2004-06-21 | 2004-10-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.45% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-04-23 | 2004-06-21 | Completed | 100% | $5.77 | $7.56 | 30.94% | Signal | |
| 2003-03-21 | 2003-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-03-19 | 2003-03-21 | Completed | 100% | $5.68 | $5.81 | 2.38% | Signal | |
| 2003-02-14 | 2003-03-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-01-16 | 2003-02-14 | Completed | 100% | $6.08 | $5.26 | -13.52% | Stop | |
| 2000-12-12 | 2003-01-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 5.43% | Interest Income | |