XLK
The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-06-12
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for XLK (The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -24.8% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -69.9%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.6%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 10.8%. The strategy executed 19 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
XLK Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 21.92% | 53.28% | 12.14% | 21.80% | 20.90% | 25.23% | 11.64% | 10.76% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.93 | 1.90 | 0.61 | 0.79 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 0.70 | 0.41 |
| Max Drawdown | -15.92% | -15.92% | -24.84% | -33.56% | -24.84% | -33.56% | -24.84% | -69.90% |
| % Time Invested | 89.7% | 100.0% | 74.7% | 100.0% | 83.5% | 100.0% | 73.0% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Open | Open | 100% | $156.77 | $184.80 | 17.88% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income |
| 2025-06-27 | 2026-03-31 | Completed | 100% | $125.37 | $129.15 | 3.02% | Stop |
| 2025-04-01 | 2025-06-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.02% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-27 | 2025-04-01 | Completed | 100% | $108.70 | $102.25 | -5.94% | Stop |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-08-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income |
| 2023-01-18 | 2024-08-05 | Completed | 100% | $64.42 | $94.92 | 47.35% | Stop |
| 2022-03-17 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.21% | Interest Income |
| 2022-02-16 | 2022-03-17 | Completed | 100% | $76.38 | $72.63 | -4.91% | Signal |
| 2022-01-25 | 2022-02-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-05-28 | 2022-01-25 | Completed | 100% | $46.05 | $73.60 | 59.84% | Stop |
| 2020-04-30 | 2020-05-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-04-30 | Completed | 100% | $35.60 | $43.87 | 23.24% | Signal |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2019-02-22 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 100% | $32.80 | $42.67 | 30.08% | Stop |
| 2018-11-21 | 2019-02-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.58% | Interest Income |
| 2016-03-22 | 2018-11-21 | Completed | 100% | $19.53 | $30.33 | 55.33% | Stop |
| 2016-02-10 | 2016-03-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2015-10-09 | 2016-02-10 | Completed | 100% | $18.39 | $17.44 | -5.18% | Signal |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2013-02-04 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 100% | $12.51 | $17.44 | 39.45% | Stop |
| 2012-12-13 | 2013-02-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2011-12-07 | 2012-12-13 | Completed | 100% | $10.71 | $12.23 | 14.19% | Signal |
| 2011-08-10 | 2011-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2010-09-17 | 2011-08-10 | Completed | 100% | $9.19 | $9.70 | 5.58% | Stop |
| 2010-07-01 | 2010-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2009-06-01 | 2010-07-01 | Completed | 100% | $7.13 | $8.28 | 16.22% | Stop |
| 2008-01-17 | 2009-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.33% | Interest Income |
| 2006-10-12 | 2008-01-17 | Completed | 100% | $8.66 | $9.33 | 7.78% | Stop |
| 2006-06-16 | 2006-10-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.61% | Interest Income |
| 2005-05-20 | 2006-06-16 | Completed | 100% | $7.63 | $7.81 | 2.35% | Signal |
| 2005-04-27 | 2005-05-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income |
| 2004-10-07 | 2005-04-27 | Completed | 100% | $7.48 | $7.17 | -4.21% | Signal |
| 2004-06-21 | 2004-10-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.45% | Interest Income |
| 2003-04-23 | 2004-06-21 | Completed | 100% | $5.78 | $7.57 | 31.00% | Signal |
| 2003-03-21 | 2003-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2003-03-19 | 2003-03-21 | Completed | 100% | $5.68 | $5.82 | 2.43% | Signal |
| 2003-02-14 | 2003-03-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2003-01-16 | 2003-02-14 | Completed | 100% | $6.09 | $5.27 | -13.48% | Stop |
| 2000-12-12 | 2003-01-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 5.43% | Interest Income |